2007-07-29

This week the fall in EUR/USD began.

I. Wedge in USD index and EUR index:

USD index:
The raise of USD bring back the USD index inside the wedge. Currently it will raise to the upper boundary. Then, it could break upper boundary (resistance), or fall again to the support.

EUR index:
EUR index is oposite of USD index, and falling. Currently old high from April act as a support, but it will be broken soon. Fall will go to the support and then support will be broken, or raise will begin to the upper boundary (resistance) again.

III. Wedge in EUR/USD:

3 days chart:
3 days chart is similar to weekly chart. Currently price fall, and is near 50% fall (according the wedge). The fall will continue to the support level.

As I said, the support may hold or may be broken (because wedge is bearish pattern).

16 hours chart:
Here, you can see the different supports that may be in play during the fall...

1 hour chart:
This chart is shown in order to see the parallel channel in which EUR/USD falling down. It means that even if we see 1.37.20, the fall will continue.

IV. Summary:

EUR/USD will fall first to about 1.36.10, and later to about 1.34.

Caution is warranted :-)

Happy trading :-)

V. AUD/JPY watch:

AUD/JPY fall off the wedge. The support levels are with brown. Since overnight interest is really high, stay aside for now. Because of same reason we may be will skip these analysis next 2-3 weeks until AUD begin raise again.

No comments: