2007-12-28

Gold

While we are celebrating in Österreich :-), gold finally broke the triangle, and I am waiting for my New Year's present - Gold @ $950

2007-12-21

Deltastock XMas schedule

Търговия с валута и метали

24.12.2007 – от 00:00 часа до 20:00 часа
25.12.2007 – почивен ден
26.12.2007 – от 16:00 часа се възобновява търговията
-----
31.12.2007 – от 00:00 часа до 20:00 часа
01.01.2008 – почивен ден
02.01.2008 – Нормална търговия

Търговия с акции на световните борси в САЩ

24.12.2007 – от 16:30 часа до 20:00 часа
25.12.2007 – почивен ден
26.12.2007 – от 16:30 часа до 23:00 часа
-----
31.12.2007 – от 16:30 часа до 23:00 часа
01.01.2008 – почивен ден
02.01.2008 – Нормален работен ден

2007-12-17

2007-12-16

EUR/USD view for week DEC/17/2007

I. Important news from the week:


1. Gold still correcting (~$800), even FED worries for ... the inflation.

2. Market decline

3. Currency debase continue. FED cut rate, but with 0.25%. Market was disappointed. USD raise, Stocks was down.

4. Day after FED cut the rate, FED announce that they prepared co-ordinated action with ECB, BOE and Switzerland National Bank for adding liquidity on the markets. They will do two auctions in DEC and two more in JAN. On this auctions, they will lend out "some" USD to other banks, funds or persons. Because I am not a "pro", you can read here.
All this is nothing more than a co-ordinated helicopter drop.
Unfortunately for Bernanke and Co. the stocks once again dropped. USD raise to new high.

5. Crude raising ~$92.




II. The parallel uptrend (old wedge):

USD index weekly chart:


Is it clear now that USD bounced. Bounce will continue to 78, because there are a strong resistance that was formal support from the wedge. I am pretty sure it will hold, and once USD index go to 78, it will began to decline.

EUR index weekly chart:

Is not sure if USD raise or XEU going down, but here we have a mirror image of USD index. The support (resistance of USD index) must hold.

EUR/USD weekly chart:

Same chart as XEU. Remember colors of the trend lines. No comments here.

EUR/USD 1 day chart:

The daily chart would be bearish, but last day with huge drop to 1.44.20 shows the reversal. The brown channel is sure broken, and pink channel is probably broken too. We could see a rally here to upper boundary of the pink channel, but generaly the trend is down to the blue line @ 1.42.

EUR/USD 4 hours chart:

Here we could see the pink channel again. could be broken, could be not broken.


III. GBP/JPY H&S:

No chart, but we still have huge H&S formation. Target is under 200.

Currently GBP is no trade.



IV. Summary:

No trade recommendations this week.

I personally will no trade, mostly because of the Xmas and New Years holidays.

From the other side - The market is irrational now, and liquidity is everywhere. You can not judge what will happen if at the same time both FED and ECB dropping money with helicopters and B-52's.

As I wrote
Remember EUR is just a worthless paper as the USD is. Eurozone has own problems too. The only reason EUR go up against the USD is because Eurozone and ECB do not inflate as much as FED. Or may be they do now. Who knows. The inflation we see now, is actually from money supply increased 6 mo ago. So we do not know if ECB printing money or not.

As we saw Canada cut their rate, hoping CAD to be debased against USD.
UK cut rates too, because guess what? - They have subprime problem too. This rate cut will debase their currency too.

There is only one real currency and is called GOLD. As you can see, gold rising against all currencies, not only against the USD. This may mean only one thing - inflation rising. Actually some people believes gold is bubble, but this is wrong opinion (will explain why I thing that some other time).
Happy week and trade!!!

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Next week there (probably) will be NO weekly view.
On the New Years Day there obviosly will be NO weekly view eighter.

2007-12-14

Weekend song - Liberta :)

Back in year 1987
Al Bano & Romina Power - Liberta

Gold 60 days

Gold 60 days chart. Triangle is continue to forming...
Current gold spot - $792.

USD index

USD Index broke pink channel. If channel is really broken, a move to ~80 (red) has began.
I think the Core CPI today will be the inflection point.

Update - there are one more target between 80 and 76 where we are, but because of the timeframe can not be shown here.

EUR 4h

Going down down down...
Blue line is broken too. May be the move to 1.42 has began.

2007-12-13

Old MP3 resources

Some very old resources from FSO

Question of Trust Between Banks

Very good article.
Question of Trust Between Banks from Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Kondratieff wave

Here we see Kondratieff wave cicle.As we see, cycle is broken in 1970's. Guess what happen back then in 1972-1973? Nixon closed the gold window in USA. This means that the only gold backed currency was no longer backed. This is important, because at that time USD was (and still is) the world reserve currency. This means that back then the world completely went out of gold standard.


This second chart show DJIA index against Gold price after the gold began fluctuating against USD. May be you know this chart, may be no. Is clearly shown that we are in decline now.
Unfortunately my "theory" does not shown the peak in 1980 as the other Kondratieff wave analysis, but the decline is there.

So I am expecting comments...



Update:
Here you are stockcharts.com chart.

2007-12-12

And FED once again produce anti-effect

OK, now after the helicopter drop, stockmarket is ... DOWN ...

Massive helicopter drop again - The debase war has started!!!

The debase war has started!!!



Thanks Mike (Breaking news: Emergency Fed and global central bank action taken to liquify credit markets )

FED link here: Press Release, December 12, 2007


For immediate release

Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing measures designed to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets.

Federal Reserve Actions
Actions taken by the Federal Reserve include the establishment of a temporary Term Auction Facility (approved by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and the establishment of foreign exchange swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank (approved by the Federal Open Market Committee).

Under the Term Auction Facility (TAF) program, the Federal Reserve will auction term funds to depository institutions against the wide variety of collateral that can be used to secure loans at the discount window. All depository institutions that are judged to be in generally sound financial condition by their local Reserve Bank and that are eligible to borrow under the primary credit discount window program will be eligible to participate in TAF auctions. All advances must be fully collateralized. By allowing the Federal Reserve to inject term funds through a broader range of counterparties and against a broader range of collateral than open market operations, this facility could help promote the efficient dissemination of liquidity when the unsecured interbank markets are under stress.

Each TAF auction will be for a fixed amount, with the rate determined by the auction process (subject to a minimum bid rate). The first TAF auction of $20 billion is scheduled for Monday, December 17, with settlement on Thursday, December 20; this auction will provide 28-day term funds, maturing Thursday, January 17, 2008. The second auction of up to $20 billion is scheduled for Thursday, December 20, with settlement on Thursday, December 27; this auction will provide 35-day funds, maturing Thursday, January 31, 2008. The third and fourth auctions will be held on January 14 and 28, with settlement on the following Thursdays. The amounts of those auctions will be determined in January. The Federal Reserve may conduct additional auctions in subsequent months, depending in part on evolving market conditions.

Depositories will submit bids through their local Reserve Banks. The minimum bid rate for the auctions will be established at the overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate corresponding to the maturity of the credit being auctioned. The OIS rate is a measure of market participants’ expected average federal funds rate over the relevant term. The minimum rate for the December 17 auction along with other auction details will be announced on Friday, December 14. Noncompetitive tenders may be accepted beginning with the third auction. The results of the first auction will be announced at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on December 19. The schedule for releasing the results of later auctions will be determined subsequently. Detailed terms of the auction and summary auction results will be available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taf.htm.

Experience gained under this temporary program will be helpful in assessing the potential usefulness of augmenting the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy tools--open market operations and the primary credit facility--with a permanent facility for auctioning term discount window credit. The Board anticipates that it would seek public comment on any proposal for a permanent term auction facility.

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). These arrangements will provide dollars in amounts of up to $20 billion and $4 billion to the ECB and the SNB, respectively, for use in their jurisdictions. The FOMC approved these swap lines for a period of up to six months.

Let the helicopters came

Massive helicopter drop from FED, then from ECB…
Congratulations to the winners !!!

The Gold triangle

Nice triangle in gold, target - $950+

2007-12-11

Amazon.com Kindle

Amazon developing interesting product, similar to Apple iPod, but for books.

Amazon.com Kindle Video

FED cuts...

Bernanke once again had anti-effect.

FED cuts:
0.25% from FED fund rate (called interest rate)
0.25% from FED discount rate (bank borrow from FED)

However the effect was anti-effect. USD rally against everything - EUR, GBP, CAD, Gold!?!?!

EUR/USD down to 1.46.60-90.

Stockmarket is down 1% (now is stabilized at ~ 0%)

Oil up.

2007-12-09

EUR/USD view for week DEC/10/2007

I. Important news from the week:


1. Gold still correcting (~$800)

2. Market decline

3. Currency debase began - Canada cut rate, UK cut rate

4. Crude still correcting ~$89 - they are joking, it must go higher very soon.

5. Paulson create a Subprime bailout plan - they will help selected people. This it is very dubious and can bring strange reaction from the people who will not be helped, I will not discuss it here, but for sure will write article in http://www.novini.net/ (in Bulgarian)




II. As I wrote before:

FED blew it!!! They totally destroyed the dollar in long term. I think they will inflate now, and stock market will go higher and higher, but only in nominal terms.

GOT GOLD :-)




III. The parallel uptrend (old wedge):

EUR/USD 4 day chart:

Blue channel up. May be broken on upside, but then price went back into the channel.
Is interesting the second blue line - it is broken too.

EUR/USD 1 day chart:
Brown line is wedge support (see 4 days chart). Blue lines formed an uptrend channel. Unfortunately, this channel is definitely broken last week. Friday price raise, and currently testing blue channel as resistance.

Last week I described two scenarios. Now I believe we have bearish scenario with target 1.42.

EUR/USD 4 hours chart:
Here is EUR/USD 4h. Blue channel is uptrend from previous chart. Pink is the downtrend. Currently the price testing blue channel (now resistance)


IV. FED meeting speculation

I believe the EUR/USD is no trade at the moment. Only good possibility to make money is the FED meeting.

There are 3 scenarios:

1. They DO NOT cut rate - bullish for the USD.
2. They cut 0.25% - bullish for EUR.
3. They cut 0.50% - even more bullish for EUR.

Which one will be?
I think there must be a cut because the other central banks cutting.
Anyway we can wait for the news and to trade the spike.
I will post update for this later in the coming week.

V. GBP/JPY H&S:

No chart, but we still have huge H&S formation. Target is under 200.

Currently GBP is no trade.


VI. Summary:

I can say absolutely the same as previous week:

No trade recommendations this week.

Remember EUR is just a worthless paper as the USD is. Eurozone has own problems too. The only reason EUR go up against the USD is because Eurozone and ECB do not inflate as much as FED. Or may be they do now. Who knows. The inflation we see now, is actually from money supply increased 6 mo ago. So we do not know if ECB printing money or not.

As we saw Canada cut their rate, hoping CAD to be debased against USD.
UK cut rates too, because guess what? - They have subprime problem too. This rate cut will debase their currency too.

There is only one real currency and is called GOLD. As you can see, gold rising against all currencies, not only against the USD. This may mean only one thing - inflation rising. Actually some people believes gold is bubble, but this is wrong opinion (will explain why I thing that some other time).

Happy week and trade!!!

Iran abandons dollar in oil deals

Iran abandons dollar in oil deals
Sat, 08 Dec 2007 19:40:51


Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari
Iran has halted all its oil deals in dollars following the recent OPEC proposal to trade crude in non-dollar currencies.

"The dollar is no longer a reliable currency, considering its devaluation and the resulting loss suffered by oil exporters," said Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari.

"Iran proposed in the last OPEC summit that member states use a reliable currency in their oil transactions to prevent further losses," he said, adding that the organization will come to a decision on the issue in the Vienna meeting on February 2.

Meanwhile, the organization decided to keep oil output unchanged at the Abu Dhabi summit on December 5, arguing that there was enough oil in the market to meet winter fuel demand.

AKM/HGH/RA

2007-12-07

They gonna be kidding, part 2

COILF8 = 88.35-88.42
WTIF08 = 88.16-88.24
Ok, is higher now, but anyway...

EUR/USD

Closed the possition at the very top @ 1.46.70, like real pro ;)

Crazy Frog

This week - something non-Russian :) but very annoying -
Crazy Frog - Axel Foley.
Alexander loves this song,
also I made very good money on this ringtone back in 2005 :)

2007-12-06

They gonna be kidding...

COILF8 = 87.42 / 87.49
WTIF08 = 86.63 / 86.71

St.Nikolas day

Happy St.Nikolas day
to all with name Nikolay (like me),
people from Netherlands,
people from city of Bourgas (Bulgaria),
all sailors and bankers.

to Garry

Garry I see you put stockcharts widget too.
Well thank to read my blog from time to time :)

EUR/USD - go to backup plan

EUR/USD - go to backup plan:
Now, blue line is in play, also watch GBP/USD.

A Merrier Christmas Ahead for Gold Bugs or Greenback Bulls?

A Merrier Christmas Ahead for Gold Bugs or Greenback Bulls?
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8961.htm

2007-12-05

4 h again

EUR/USD - 4h

EUR/USD 4 hours chart - we will see if it get to the bottom of the triangle again, or will elevate back up after todays news.

2007-12-04


As per What is the nature of this oil top, I decided to prepare this chart. We can see 77 very soon, before crude go to new high.

Minera Andes

As per my wish list, I bought MAI.TO, but @ 1.80.

EUR/USD again...

OK, last post for EUR/USD for today, I promise.

Looks like EUR is unpredicted in the moment.

DO NOT TRADE IT :)

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart

aha! Anyway could be a flag.

EUR/USD - daily and 4h

EUR/USD Daily:Inflection point comes, or not :)
The support is probably not broken.
EUR/USD 4hMixed signals, but support is probably back in play (first broken).

2007-12-02

EUR/USD view for week DEC/03/2007

Not much things changed since last week...

I. Important news from the week:

1. Gold correcting again (~$780)

2. Market raise

3. JPY declining

4. Crude correcting and is back to ~$89


II. As I wrote before:
FED blew it!!! They totally destroyed the dollar in long term. I think they will inflate now, and stock market will go higher and higher, but only in nominal terms.
GOT GOLD :-)


III. The parallel uptrend (old wedge):

USD Index:
There was unexpected rise in USD in Friday, after US stock exchanges were closed. This could be everything - stops, trend reversal or something else. Note that parallel channel (blue) was first broken, then bounced. Is better to wait and see what will happen.

EUR (XEU) Index:
Because it was possible the action in USD to be actualy an action in EUR, we put the chart in EUR index (so called XEU). Here we can see absolutely the same action as in USD - (blue) channel is broken, then bounced down.

EUR/USD 1 day chart:
Brown channel up. May be broken, may be not. Technicaly is broken, but with 20 pips.

In case the channel is not broken, there is a triangle (not shown) and once the triangle is broken we will see new high, may be almost 1.50.

This is the bullish scenario - 1.50

In case channel is broken, we will see 1.42. This will NOT happen imediately -

bearish scenario - 1.42,

also this may happen even if EUR raise first, but not make new high.

I believe this is probable scenario - 1.48-1.49, then down to 1.42


EUR/USD 2 hours chart:
Here is EUR/USD. Blue channel is downtrend from the high ~1.39.70 or whatever it was. The brown line, is a parallel line which may be is support. The pink line is support.

What next - next, I think the EUR must go to upper, and to sest the formal support. Sinse the break is with 20 pips only, EUR may enter in the channel again.


IV. GBP/JPY H&S:

No chart, but we still have huge H&S formation. Target is under 200.

There are very interesting development, which I will covering during the week.

Do not trade GBP/JPY. It is extremely volatile.


V. Summary:

I can say absolutely the same as previous week:

No trade recommendations this week, I personaly have long position on EUR/USD.

Remember EUR is just a worthless paper as the USD is. Eurozone has own problems too. The only reason EUR go up against the USD is because Eurozone and ECB do not inflate as much as FED. Or may be they do now. Who knows. The inflation we see now, is actually from money supply increased 6 mo ago. So we do not know if ECB printing money or not.

There is only one real currency and is called GOLD. As you can see, gold rising against all currencies, not only against the USD. This may mean only one thing - inflation rising. Actually some people believes gold is bubble, but this is wrong opinion (will explain why I thing that some other time).

Happy week and trade!!!

Offensive comments

Some offencive comments were removed.
Note we moderate every of comments you post, so don't try spam us.
Thank you.

2007-11-30

A Tidal Wave by Puru Saxena

A Tidal Wave - Puru Saxena on gold, silver and minning stocks:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8915.htm

Forex Profit Evaluation for NOV-2007

OCT-2007 - 34.28%
(percent is low, because I traded with more money than usual)
YTD - about 480%
EUR/USD YTD - 1.19 - 1.47 = ~28%
YTD ALPHA - 480 - 28 = 452%

Weekend song :-)


The blue wagon - Russian children song from 1970's,
This is not the original, but a remix.

The war in Iraq

Credit bubble all over again

Two very important articles:

Where's the Cash?

and

Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance!

2007-11-29

Traders are idiots

This is lots of fun:
To cut in order dollar to go up...


LONDON (Thomson Financial)
The dollar held onto its earlier gains against other major currencies, helped by a rise in stocks and the view that a likely US rate cut next month will keep the economy from a hard landing.

US stocks rose strongly overnight after the Federal Reserve's vice chairman Donald Kohn indicated that rates would be cut in December, despite the hawkish rhetoric from other Fed officials.

GBP/JPY

As per old broken wedge, now first target is 222, then if not bounced, much lower...

EUR/USD - 2 hour chart

The triangle I promiced to write is here. Also meanwhile, in the night, we have fallen to the bottom, and couple of minutes ago EUR hit 1.47.35, which supposed the be the bottom. May be we will see some tests of the bottom again, but generally the direction now is high.

2007-11-28

More dodgy business with GBP/JPY

A wedge is broken, on the correct side.
Currently we are on the parallel channel, which may be will be broken too.
From the other side, the JPY falling against everything,
so the rally in GBP is not a surprise.

EUR/USD - 4h

We have a triangle. Will post about it tomorrow.
About the bounce - posting is little bit late, since EUR bounced already to 1.48.57,
anyway what now - 1.48.80, then down again.

Crude oil

Crude on weekly chart.
We may see $90 again, before raise to #100-110+

There is something like double top on daily chart (not shown here),
but second top is higher, so I do not think it will fall at all.

2007-11-27

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart

Master support is in brown.
Blue lines show small parallel upper channel.
Target remains up - 1.39.60 (not seen here)

Esperanza Silver

As per my wishlist, I bought Esperanza Silver @ 1.90 CAD
We will see if I am correct about them.

2007-11-26

Carry trade with USD.

Today, I checked (but not read fully) an article how traders get loans in USD, convert it to EUR, AUD or different currency, and invest it on the market, betting that the USD will be down at the time they need to close the loan.

It makes sence, since let say you got 5M USD from FED at their discount rate ~5%. Later, the discount rate is cut more, so you owe less. Also the USD get debase, and if let say it debase 5%, you owe no interest in the other currency.

Those money, can be invested in non US markets, simply because the US market is denominated in USD. So we may expect markets crash all over the world if USD raly from here.

:-)

Dodgy business with GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 week chart:
H&S formation still here, however due to high volatility and extremly high carry-trade interest (paid 70 EUR for 150K per day last week) - do not enter short.
GBP/JPY 4h chart:

a wedge is formed, also is broken to the "correct" side. Now - 237 - 238 is the target. Once again - do not trade it, do not trade it, do not trade it :)

Shopping wish list

MAI.TO - MINERA ANDES - enter now ~ 1.60
EPZ.V - ESPERANZA SILVER CORPORATION - enter now ~ 1.90
SSRI - Silcer standard - no idea of entering - 38-40

2007-11-25

Subprime video


A must see video for credit derivatives investments ;)

EUR/USD view for week NOV/26/2007

Hi,
There will be no publication this week, since there are not much change from last week. The only difference, is that now I am bullish on EUR, since it keep hitting new highs. Will post some charts very soon or tomorrow.
However trade carefully because we can see reversal very soon, but probably not this week.
Happy week and happy trading.

EUR/USD - 4h chart
parallel channel up.

EUR/USD - 1h chart
"almost" :-) parallel channel up.

Also note the upper thin line (not the blue one), that is broken. This is the line from the parallel channel which I call "old wedge". It was broken Friday, but I can not do any estimations, since it is on weekly chart. Anyway, we will see where market go, and will do better estimation

Credit crunch

2007-11-20

EUR/USD - 2 hour chart

Even we hit new all time high, RSI and MACD show bearish divergence.
Also, the figure is wedge (do I see wedges all around? :-) )

EUR/USD - 1.48

Instead to go down, EUR/USD raised to new all time high - 1.48.13.

This prove that our analysis is wrong.

Currently the price is ~1.47.80. I still believe it will go down,
but we need to see where it will go.
Fibonacci gives - 1.47.45 as good entry, then 1.47.25, then 1.47.05.

2007-11-19

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart

If you trade the gap - congrats. I did not.
Now we revise the downtrend channlel.
If it again go out, then probably the channel is wrong :-)