US Stock market / Gold cycles 1850 - 2013
US Stock market / Gold cycles and bank failures 1928 - 2024
However, something still is developing, I still believe we experience EUR bubble.
I do not want to say that USA have lot of economical problems, and EU do not. I am not bullish on USD in long term, but technicaly, the situation is very interesting.
First, the USD index:
From here, the dollar have one way - up. This is because of couple of reasons -
- Strong support @ ~80.
- Strong support @ bottom triangle/wedge line.
- If this is wedge, then it must be broken on the top.
- if dollar fall now, nothing can't help it - this is not technical, nor fundamental, but if this happen, we need to prepare for very big shift in monetary and currency situation. In this case probably EUR or GPB will take over as new international currency.
Next chart shows 1 week chart (1 week candles)
I did not post this chart for long time ago, but I want to show same divergence as on USD chart. We are on the top of the channel. Purple line may be not drawn correct, but anyway, we are on the top. Also we are on same place where Dec.2004-Jan.2005, correction is a must. Correction price objective - 1.31, but because support is raising, real objective will be probably 1.32-1.33, depending when it will happen.
Now 1 day chart:
Strange channel - Support on the bottom, second short term support. Resistance on the top. Price is trading up-down all the time between 1.3580 - 1.3680, see 30 min chart at the end. Price objective here - 1.3250
Now 4 hours chart:
I prefere this chart to buy/sell. Also here we may draw trend lines more precisely for short-term. Well what shall I say? It's a mess. The action is either reaction after some fund dumped their EURos, or this was a correction. In both cases, wait and watch.
Finaly, a 30 min chart of latest pullback and then bounce.
something not making sence, right? :-)
Trade advice (educational purposes only)
Stay aside, waith, watch. Begin buying at 1.3580, but only if everithing looks good till then.
Generaly, it must not have fallen at all, but many strange things happen lately.
I strongly believe we experience EUR baloon, but trend is your friend - surf it :-)
My orders are executed again, and I am again long on EUR.
Channel is unbroken, the EUR bounced one again (not on the chart) from it supposed to - 1.3600
There seems to be good support on ~1.3590. Technical objective price is more than 1.3680.
Because I am not greedy, I once again set target - 1.3660.
The 1 hour chart is as following:
Other charts such 1 day, 4 hours, 30 min are unchanged and are not interesting, so not need to post it.
this is information based on charts from 3 hours ago, I am already long on EUR, but anyway.
1 hour chart:
We see nice channel. Any correction, will be limited from bottom trend line, which is on ~1.3500.
4 hours chart:
There is something like wedge. Well I do not believe that this figure will be broken on downside, but even it is, the downsize will be limited of trend on 1 day chart - 1.3500.
Update from meanwhile - the EUR fall to ~1.3589, and bounce exactly from the bottom line, where it supposed to.
1 hour chart:
I publish this, because it show something like "channel", which is broken now. Technicaly this is not channel, but the second line is just parallel to upper boundary. Some people will argue on this chart, but I do not know what it shows us, probably EUR will return to this "channel", probably not.
I do not think this chart can help us for trading, but observation is interesting.
What he does not said, is that big investors, now buying those copper coins and melt them down, and sell it as copper, for price that exeed the denominal value (embossed on the coins)
So as I wrote 3 mo ago - begin collecting coins :)
First 4 hours chart.
the EUR raising long term, in its healty channel (blue lines). This channel is long term, and depending how we calculate it, we may say it began 15.FEB.2007 or even 11.JAN.2007.
The purple line is very important. It was upper boundary to previous channel, and now is resistance. It hold before (13.APR.2007), we will see what will hapen now, I believe it will hold, but since it was not tested till now, we can not be sure what will happen.
The three lines, both blue channel and purple one are parallel (if they are not, is because i drew them wrong :-) )
If you read my analysis often, you may be noted, I newer speculate on RSI and MACD. Well, currently, 4 hours MACD histogram going down, and is quite oversold.
this chart is posted to show, that there is support level @ ~ 1.3560 .
It hold 2 times now, it probably will hold one more time :-)
Even, as I said in previous post, I closed my short possitions, you must understand, that we need to wait till end of the day, and see the USD index chart again, because there are important situation there (see my post here - usd index bottom is near unless is not).
I closed all USD possition with some minor loss, and I am long now.
Probably is not the best solution, but we will see.
Deutsche Bank on EUR/USD:
EUR USD (1.3590)
Yesterday’s US CPI number was thecatalyst for another short-squeeze in the euro. As mentioned in ourlast report, many short-term traders currently entertain the idea oftrying to pick a top for the single-currency. Their principal motivationfor doing so is its proximity to its all-time high, but few like to admitthis, especially as there are few other fundamental justifications.Mercifully, this fact might have limited the degree of short-selling andspared some traders some nasty losses. As a consequence thesqueeze only lifted the euro some 50-pips higher on the news.However, we doubt that the development has calmed the appetitefor short-selling. Still traders claim that the rally has been ‘too far, tofast’. Too fast? The euro is only up 5 percent from its year-lowregistered in January and implied volatility remains pitifully low. Itspent the three weeks prior to the Easter break in a sideways range.In fact, only in the last six sessions has the EUR/USD evenapproached the historical averages in terms of price-range. Thisobservation alone reveals the time-horizon of the current sceptics.
Our current upside objective remains at 1.3670. This is fractionallyabove the all-time high – a level where top-pickers are likely to beactive. But they will be the only source of supply. Thus, beyondthere, a further squeeze should lift the single-currency to 1.3920. Tothe downside, the risk-limit for our bullish strategy should now betightened to 1.3505.
Idea comes from http://emasmarketblog.blogspot.com , only difference I think the target is higher - 31.00 at least.
There are small bullish H&S - in yellow, and there are bigger bearish H&S forming - in green.
SYNA:DJIA is interesting too, this is actualy what made me buy it. Here we see inverted (bullish) H&S formation.
From this chart, there are 2 scenarios.
- DJIA will fall sharply - I have large SDS position (2 x short S&P500)
- SYNA will soar, and I will sell it :-)
- Both 1 and 2
EUR / JPY raise but not to some level it was never been before. Trend is up, that for sure.
USD / JPY today we have poolback in the chart. We have triangle here - chart looks normal.
Gold is at about same levels last 3 days.
EUR /USD yesterdays channel is broken, but there are one more on top.
This not seems to be right, but we will see.
Now price gravitate at same level it was after previous top on 05.apr.2007. Soon price must fall to lower boundary, all we need is Bernanke or someone else to say how good US economy is. It looks is really that simple.
Then buy at lower line, but make sure as I wrote, there something else going on too, so EUR may fall to 1.32 (not shown on the chart, but you may check my previous messages).
Very important!!! Even I am sure that EUR will decline, do not short it :)
Probably too early, but check attached chart.
Little bit early, but we were convienced that price will fall quickly to 1.3380 again. However this did not hapened.
So now expectation could be raise to 1.3450-1.3460 and fall again to bottom part of the channel.
Sometimes I ask myself, is it really that easy?
Probably is... :-)
This time this view is may be early, but market is closed now, so we can work on it.
As we predicted :), the EUR fall from top of the channel, to almost the bottom of the support.
Anyway. The trend seems in tact, and EUR *must* fall now to lower boundary, with probability more than ever.
About this price fall, I am including this second chart, is same as first one, but it include one more channel. It is forming, by connecting the top from March and top we have today. Since there is no respective paralel line, that connectin some notable bottoms, it means that the fall of EUR could reach this red support line @ 1.3235 . I do not believe EUR will fall that much, but we will know. For sure something is developing there and we can not see it (yet).
I do not feel safe when I short EUR, so what I will personaly do, is to make small orders all way down to blue support line. I bet, that the blue line will hold, but the only reason I have for it is that the line holded 3 times till now, and technicaly, this is not good reason at all.
and speaking of Germany, you can not believe, what is the inflation here, I even get scared!!!
Inflation is increasing of money supply, but prices here are raised with about 5 - 10% from my previous visit, about 6 mo ago, so you can quickly forget about fundamentals...:)