US Stock market / Gold cycles 1850 - 2013
US Stock market / Gold cycles and bank failures 1928 - 2024
USD down, US Stocks down, Gold and Silver - down !?!?!
All this because Global Worries and 8% crash in Chinese markets.
The upper trend line was eighter broken, or moved.
We could have false break too, since today price went bellow the line again.
Today price pared the loses from yesterday, but we will see what the future will be ;-)
but stocks heading up. This means that gold stocks are still relatively cheap.
As we can see, EUR is trading very close to upper triangle line, but it did lower high, even close price in friday is higher close for the week.
We also can see, how the EUR bounces from middle line, which obviously act as support.
What to expect now - I believe now there are 2 scenarios:
- EUR will fall sharply to 1.31, and will bounce again, at least to 1.3160.
- EUR will fall, but very sloooow, and close to upper resistance line.
- Third (backup) scenario - EUR will fall sharply to near 1.30 and will bounce from there.
I believe, in all cases, EUR will fall, but this fall shall be very welcome, so you will be able to "cover the shorts" (buy USD back), and to buy positions for next BIG leg up.
It is developing around upper boundary line.
Price defenetly go down (USD - bullish), but very slow.
Fundamentaly, USD must be affected from Gold, but no such thing yet, probably because of upper boundary line :)
Till now the analisys has proven to be correct.
Passions is everything :)
Dow is "collection" of 30 shares. This way they call it Dow30.
As you all know, back in 1999-2000 the Dow hit all time high.
Recently, Dow hit again, and made new all time high.
However, if we study carefuly the market price on each company in Dow back in 1999-2000 and now, we will see something strange.
Only 10 companies now are traded at higher price than in 1999-2000, and one (MCD) is on similar level.
Here is the list:
- American Express Company
- Boeing Co.
- Citigroup, Inc
- Caterpillar Inc
- Johnson & Johnson
- 3M Co
- Altria Group Inc
- The Procter & Gamble Company
- United Technologies Corporation
- Exxon Mobil Corp
And finaly MCD:
- McDonald's Corporation - at about same level
So hows that? 1/3 of the index is going, but then, this means 2/3 is down. So then why Dow is up? Probably because of capitalization and so on.
I am very curious about S&P 500, but this has to be made with a program and I have no time of it right now.
Gold is $679.50, GLD is $67.30
However, I wroted something for Dow, and will post it in a moment :)
It is the same!!!
So then don't explain me about the market that "This time is different" is all the same, always.
I read "Cult of the bear", but honestly, I don't get any idea what Clive Droke means there,
I noted following divergence in IBM:
IBM created a perfect triangle back to .COM bubble, and currently is on the top resistance line.
I especialy checked for similar pattern in DJ, but there are no such thing (else everyone will write about it.
So speaking about the bear cult, could it be, that the fall in IBM will drag whole DJ down? :-)
If the price fall to 75-76, and hold, I am buyer.
From now there EUR should decline. There are two possibilities we see,
- EUR will decline to blue line, and the line will act as support. Then the EUR will consolidate a bit, and will break the upper red line. Time frame - next week.
- EUR will decline, the blue line will be broken, and decline will be till 1.2950-1.2960. From there will consolidate up-down, and finaly, will broke the upper red line. Time frame - 2-3 weeks.
AP - Construction of new homes and apartments plunged by 14.3 percent in January, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The bigger-than-expected drop left construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.408 million units, the lowest level in nearly 10 years.
Currently, there are two channels EUR/USD is in.
First, is short term channel. Accordung to it, the EUR falling since the top in DEC.2006 Currently, we are at the very top of the channel. I believe the channel will NOT be broken today.
Second we have major support, as there is a long term bullish channel since SEP.2006 or so. Because the EUR/USD is far from the bottom line, I think, the EUR/USD will fall today or tomorrow to at least 1.3020.
Currently I have small order that actualy shorts the EUR, I do not recommend this to anyone, but if you want to do so, I will recommend to keep STOP order very close by, because if the resistance is broken, then fo sure we will have big advance, at least to 1.3280 (JAN.2007 top).
Long term chart. The EURo go close to the support line. From here, I believe, it will fell more, to the line, and then will go up.
Short term, is mess. I hope there will be bounce next week to 1.30++, but I am not sure, because the support I show is short term. Fall to 1.29 is possible, if the price continue to fall, it will fall below the price envelope (price channel). There is also major support at 1.2890.
So happy mess next week.