2 hours chart of EUR/USD shows something like megaphon pattern (or reversed triangle if you prefere). However, it is declining, rather simetrical and I am not sure what it means.
The raise of USD bring back the USD index inside the wedge. Currently it will raise to the upper boundary. Then, it could break upper boundary (resistance), or fall again to the support.
EUR index is oposite of USD index, and falling. Currently old high from April act as a support, but it will be broken soon. Fall will go to the support and then support will be broken, or raise will begin to the upper boundary (resistance) again.
3 days chart is similar to weekly chart. Currently price fall, and is near 50% fall (according the wedge). The fall will continue to the support level.
Here, you can see the different supports that may be in play during the fall...
This chart is shown in order to see the parallel channel in which EUR/USD falling down. It means that even if we see 1.37.20, the fall will continue.
Situation is complex now. Currently USD index raised, and now, is a time to "meet" the formal support. It could drop back from it. This will be good buying oportunity, especialy for traders like us :-)
However, is possible the wedge to be "missunderstood", and to be like on the picture.
As EUR began to fall, this means the wedge is done. EUR/USD will fall to about ~1.34. Now there may be a pullback, where we need to enter short.
On 8 hours chart we have several trendlines. Blue channel is broken as at clock.
Levels are 1.37.90 / 75 / 55.
The support from previous major top is near - horizontal brown line.
USD index forming a wedge, and broke below support level. I think this is false break and USD index will bounce very soon from the support, see the EUR index and EUR/USD below.
The EUR index forming a wedge. Because USD index is dominated by EUR currency and EUR index is dominated by USD currency, this wedge is corresponding to the wedge in USD index. In fact chart is almost opposite.
The ratio between EUR index / USD index shows same wedge again. The wedge is completed, and fall may start any moment.
This chart is similar to weekly chart. There are same wedge. The wedge is not completed. However, EUR/USD hit new high - 1.38.42. This is probably enough for the wedge, and now price must begin fall to the target price of 1.34.00.
A rising channel, but resistance is just above (not shown)
AUD/JPY went to upper boundary of the wedge, and currently dropping to ~105.60. Probably it will bounce from the support.
For EUR/USD expanded weekly view - click here
The USD index wedge is completed. Even more - support is broken. The break is also because of raise of the Japan currency - JPY. I believe this is false break, because as we will see later, the wedge is not completed in EUR index, and in EUR/USD.
This is 15 min chart of USD index. We have a downtrend channel now, and index could go eight er up or down to the channel. I believe (e.g. not estimated), that the upper boundary correspond to about EUR/USD = 1.37.60.
Now, is very important to see EUR index. Here, as usual, we have corresponding wedge, but it is not completed. Note the orange mark around JAN.2007. I believe, is important, because, there the index did not fell to the support level, the price bounced little bit above the support.
To make even more clear picture, let see EUR index/USD index.
The chart is similar to 1 week chart.
OK, we have parallel rising channel in blue.
On weekly chart, we are now almost on the resistance level. Today top of 1.38.12, suggest we are on the very edge of the wedge :)
| GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY | |
|---|---|
| as of 07/09/07 Country | YOY % |
| Russian Fed. M2 | 50.94 |
| India M3 | 19.70 |
| China M2 | 16.74 |
| Australia M3 | 14.05 |
| United Kingdom M4 | 13.84 |
| Mexico M4 | 12.21 |
| Brazil M2 | 11.92 |
| Denmark M3 | 10.62 |
| Korea M3 | 10.07 |
| Canada M3 | 8.08 |
| OECD Total M3/ EUROZONE | 7.86/10.9 |
| United States M3 reconstructed | 13.7 |
| Germany M3 | 6.16 |
we have a parallel channel - brown lines.
Posts
