Instead of doing technical analysis of current gold, now we will see similar runs in the past and try to compare it with the current run.
Its' easy to see when the gold do a top, but ut is very hard to decide when the run begins. Currently I decided the beginning to be from the moment when "the price really pick up". Later I will do same analysis but from the lows.
Next is to decide what to compare. Currently I compare rally duration, percentage of gain and MACD.
Idea for next study will be the % of the correction.
Current MACD is 22, and it is lower than the values of previous runs.
Depending where current run began, duration is up to 8 mo.
Gain is less than previous runs. If we do small calculation, a 40% run will make current gold run $1,470.
Gold runs...
...to $740.
...to $1,000.
...to $1,200.
Gold runs excl corrections:
...to $740.
...to $1,000.
...to $1,200.
Table comparisson:
(click to enlarge)
Copy paste table:
+--------------------------------------------------------------------+ | run | begin | end | $ lo | $ hi | MACD | dur | incr | incr % | +-----+---------+---------+------+------+------+-----+------+--------+ | 1 | 2005-08 | 2006-04 | 450 | 740 | 30 | 8m | 290 | 64.44 | | 2 | 2007-08 | 2008-03 | 660 | 1000 | 25 | 7m | 340 | 51.52 | | 3 | 2009-04 | 2009-11 | 860 | 1220 | 30 | 6m | 360 | 41.86 | | 4 | 2010-08 | - | 1160 | 1350 | 20 | 2m | 190 | 16.38 | | 4a | 2010-02 | - | 1050 | 1350 | 20 | 8m | 300 | 28.57 | +--------------------------------------------------------------------+
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