2010-10-07

Gold Analysis: Trees and the forest

Sometimes I really can't see the forest for the trees.

I was so focused on short term movements of gold, so I did not realised that the recent rice in gold prices is actually a result of longer time frame period.

Here is the big picture as I see it:

First of all, here are un-annotated 6 years gold chart. I combined two small charts, so the vertical axis is not precise.

Gold 6 years

Click to enlarge, the chart is huge.
Yellow dots show the tops from the beginning of the gold bull run. After each top, I marked with another yellow dot the correction bottom.
There are some green dots - important higs but they are part of the trend.

So we have:

click to enlarge.
note - correction % is correct, but must be multiplied by 100.

Same for copy/paste:
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Date start | Date top | Date bottom | Start | Top  | Corr | Gain% | Corr% | Durration | Durration corr |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|            | 2004-DEC | 2005-FEB    |       |  456 |  410 |       | 10.09 |           |            2 m |
| 2005-FEB   | 2006-MAY | 2006-JUN    |   410 |  740 |  542 | 80.49 | 26.76 |      15 m |            1 m |
| 2006-JUN   | 2008-MAR | 2008-OCT    |   542 | 1033 |  681 | 90.59 | 34.08 |       9 m |            7 m |
| 2008-OCT   | 2009-NOV | 2010-FEB    |   681 | 1226 | 1044 | 80.03 | 14.85 |      13 m |            3 m |
| 2010-FEB   | 2010-OCT |             |  1044 | 1252 |      | 19.92 |       |       8 m |                |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

This is absolutely the chart, but with the channels and triangles.

Important thing here is the development after 2009-NOV ($865 low).

Here is the weekly chart with same channel as on previous chart, but enlarged.

Currently the price is almost at the middle line. Yes there could be some more raise to 1355 or so, but resistance is stronger now.

Here is the same weekly chart, but is produced with my trading software. It is more - crude, but we can see the $1450 target clearly.

If resistance is broken, a rice to 1450 will follow. This is simillar to Jesse's target.
If resistance is not broken, a correction to 1225 will follow. After this gold will be on the rice again.

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