2007-09-30

EUR/USD view for week OCT/03/2007

EUR/USD view for week OCT/03/2007

This week I am on vacation, so will not do it :)

Things are messy anyway, so check again the chart I posted Friday,
probably will be most important chart for the moment.
Happy trade and have a nice week ;)

2007-09-29

Tween Peaks - The wedge is not what is it?

What if the wedge is not the wedge at all?
Chart shown is for XEU, but same will apply for USD and EUR/USD also.
There are even more crazy scenario that show the top @ ~ 150 (parallel from MAY.2006 peak)

2007-09-27

Elliot wave on EUR/USD

Yet another Elliot wave on EUR/USD,
unfortunately in Bulgarian, but you can see the chart :-)

http://forum.investor.bg/viewtopic.php?t=6535

Stupid article...

The top article in Yahoo Finance today:

Wall Street Heads to Higher Open As Investors Look to More Economic Data
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street headed toward a higher open Thursday on speculation that new economic data will show enough weakness to give the Federal Reserve more reasons to cut interest rates.
...
Well I do not understand. Are they stupid or what?

They clearly say that they want inflating the currency, so the stockmarket to go up in absolute value, since the purchasing power of the money to decrease.

Unbelievable.

I am still bullish on USD for short term, but I don't know what to think anymore.

EUR/USD update

EUR/USD 30 min chart
Mixed signals.

EUR/USD 2 hour chart
Probably this is the top for the moment.

2007-09-26

2007-09-25

Message from a friend

I am short the euro and long the dollar as a hedge against gold positions and becaue the euro is just as much a piece of worthless paper as the USD. Technically it's over bought and the whole world seems bullish the euro. I am willing to wait this out for a bit.

2007-09-24

Investment Flash: Hyper-Bearish

Investment Flash: Hyper-Bearish by Paul Lamont
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8486.htm
A strange article, I can not understand :)

Portfolio change.

Sold my PWI and bought PWE for same money.

Greenspan again

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart - trendline support broken.

Peter Schiff do it again :)

Peter Schiff September 2007 CNN
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-CNN-9-22-07_lg.asp

Copper

Copper getting interesting...

2007-09-23

EUR/USD view for week SEP/24/2007

I am sorry, but today I had power installation problem at home. Half of power plugs and lamps not working. That's why the analysis will be shorter, and will not include nice pictures of helicopters and B-52's :-)

I. Important news from the week:
1. FED cut the base rate with 0.50%.

2. FED also cut discount rate with 0.50%

3. EUR/USD hit new record 1.41.25

4. Gold still @ 730+ USD. This was higher weekly close for 20-30+ years.

FED blew it!!!
They totally destroyed the dollar in long term. I think they will inflate now, and stock market will go higher and higher, but only in nominal terms.
GOT GOLD?!?!


II. The wedge in USD index and EUR index:

USD index weekly chart:
Wedge is completed and broken from "wrong" side. There is mixed signals. RSI have bullish divergence, MACD - confirms bearish developments. However I expect a correction anyway, and rally to upper boundary.

EUR index weekly chart:
Similar to USD index. It raised to the top and broke the wedge on the "wrong" way. Mixed signals - both bearish and bullish.

EUR index / USD index ratio weekly chart:
Not shown, but is exactly as USD index and EUR index.

Before, I wrote following, and once again I copy/paste it:
As you can see, back in 1992, USD was down once 78.43, well, we had similar reading, I can not say how the recent low was, but was close to 78.43.
Before, I wrote following, and once again I copy/paste it:
For first-time readers, and those who do not know, the wedges are reversal patterns. This wedge is bullish for USD index, no matter what people say for US economy, debt bubble etc. I am sure that at the end of the year, the USD will be lower, but wedge suggest we will have one bounce before that.
This is still valid, even the reality shows something else :) .


III. Wedge in EUR/USD:

EUR/USD 4 days chart:
Broke the upper boundary.


IV. Summary:

EUR continue to rise, USD to fall, but reversal must occur. Here are why:
1. The wedges are usualy broken the other side.

2. We are on important support of USD index.

3. Elliot wave count on EUR/USD shows a decline must due.

4. The rally in EUR can not go without correction.

5. On a monthly chart of USD index (not shown) there are a trend line that go to 81.20. This is similar reading that the upper boundary of our wedge. I will publish this chart next week.

6. There are some short term wedge on USD index and also on EUR/USD, which is in favour of USD raise.

7. US economy may be in trouble, but EUR-o zone economy is not something else. We will see bad data for EUR-o zone too, as it happened for UK with their recent bank-run in Northern Rock and expectations for trouble in Barkley bank.
Happy week and trade!!!
V. Carry trade with AUD/JPY:

Will not be updated this time, probably tomorrow.

2007-09-20

Elliot wave on EUR/USD

Elliot wave labeling seems so obvious. Hmmm...
If I am correct target is waaaay down.

Another wedge

Another bearish wedge in EUR/USD 8 hours chart.

Corporate earnings

Corporate earnings:
http://www.minyanville.com/mvtv/?videoid=27

UK M4 figure increased

UK M4 figure is 13.50% from 13.00%
It seems printing presses working and all currencies are junk.
Bernanke is a genious, soon all central banks will inflate like crazy,
and USD will soar as I expect, at least for a while.

Got Gold?

Titanic sinking normally :)

USD Index:Wedge now completed.

EUR Index:Wedge now completed.

EUR/USD 4 day chart:Wedge was completed before, now we may be see throw over.

Previous 2 posts are invalid now, but general analysis is in tact.

2007-09-19

EUR/USD downtrend.

EUR/USD 10 min chart.
We have significant downtrend, but I assume we had 2 false breaks today.
Target now is down to 1.39.30

A-B-C correction


Hi ,

My name is Boris Peshev. I am a Nick friend.

EUR/USD 1 h. We have a A-B-C correction. This is my
likely scenario for a few next days, but I am not 100% sure:)

New contributor

We have new contributor - Boris Peshev.
Welcome on board :)

Taxes

2007-09-18

USD index value

Current: 79.25.37

Hi: 80.00.51
Lo: 79.06.04

Flash info on FED and EUR/USD

FED just cut 0.50% from the base interest rate. We will see if this will help subprime lenders, but it has good effect on stocks.

Stocks are up about 2%, including minning stocks.

Gold is almost unchanged - Kitco show $715, my forex account - $725.

EUR/USD hits 1.39.80

Now USD index:
Wedge is almost, almost completed. We may see some more rally in EUR/USD.

EUR index:
Wedge is not completed, but in XEU/USD ratio chart - wedge is completed.

EUR/USD 3 hours chart:
Wedge is completed. Now we may expect move down. This probably will not happwen today.

Alan Greenspan Interview on 60 minutes

From "60 minutes", aired on SEP/16/2007

Alan Greenspan on: His Role in creating the Housing Bubble (5 min video) here

Alan Greenspan on: George W. Bush, taxcuts, and Cheney here

Alan Greenspan on: the Clintons here

Alan Greenspan on: George Bush senior here

Alan Greenspan on: ex-presidents Nixon, Ford, and Regan here

Alan Greenspan defends his right to speak freely here

Alan Greenspan tight lipped on investing in current market here

Alan Greenspan's use of "fedspeak" here

2007-09-17

Gold education :)

Here you are little bit education.

Upper chart (small one) we have price of Oil per barel, priced in USD.
Beginning of 2005, it was $40. Now because of inflation or whatever you prefere, is $80.

Middle chart (small one) we have price of 1 oz of Gold, priced in USD.
Beginning of 2005, it was $400. Now because of inflation or whatever you prefer, is $715.

Now, forget the USD. And see the bottom chart (big one). Here you see Oil, priced in Gold. This means we give Gold coin and receive equal amount of Oil for it.

What is the conclusion?!?!
1. Price do not go up. Price go up and down in very small range - from 0.08 oz to 0.15 oz of gold for a barrel of oil.
2. Looks like Gold has "conserved" the money, and as I like to say "transported" the value thought time, like a time machine.

GOT GOLD?

Zimbabwe stock index

Zimbabwe Industrial Stock Index
2005/08 thru 2006/07
Nice, ah? Not really...
EUR/USD 30 min. We have a triangle. This triangle may be will be broken on the bottom, but I am not 100% sure, because if we extend the support line (brown), it continue and is support on 2-4 hours chart.

2007-09-16

EUR/USD view for week SEP/17/2007

I. Important news from the week:
1. ECB holds the rate.

2. EUR/USD hit new record 1.39.25 (or whatever it was)

3. Gold still @ 700+ USD

4. Many analysts still believe that FED will lower the rate.

Some words for future FED meeting - there are several possibilities:
Note the markets awaiting FED's decision. FED is in complicated situation. Even if the lower the rate, it may still be view as disappointment, and stocks may plunge, and dollar to rally.
1. Not to cut the rate - this will be bullish for the dollar.

2. Not to cut the rate, but to cur discount rate some more - this is generally bearish, but may be still considered bullish for the dollar. Dollar probably fall, but not that much.

3. To cut the rate with 0.25% - this is generally bearish, but may be still considered bullish for the dollar. Dollar probably fall, but not that much.

4. To cut the rate with 0.25% + to cut discount rate again this is bearish for the dollar.

5. To cut the rate with 0.50% - this is what the business wants. Very bearish for the dollar.


II. The wedge in USD index and EUR index:

USD index weekly chart:
Almost down the way. A rally will follow, but not before it hits the support.

EUR index weekly chart:
Similar to USD index. Not yet...
We have bearish divergence on MACD. We had this on all wedge charts published here.

EUR index 1 day chart:
This is based on a chart of Doug Gnazzo. Thanks. We see the EUR index "consolidating". The two support lines show possible downsize.

I believe upper line will NOT hold, but second one will - because the corresponding line in EUR/USD is broken (not show on EUR/USD chart)

EUR index / USD index ratio weekly chart:
Almost up. Probably even completed. We will see.

Before, I wrote following, and once again I copy/paste it:
As you can see, back in 1992, USD was down once 78.43, so the drop that the wedge suggest is not in uncharted waters at all (at least to 78.43 :-) )
Before, I wrote following, and once again I copy/paste it:
For first-time readers, and those who do not know, the
wedges are reversal patterns. This wedge is bullish for USD index, no matter
what people say for US economy, debt bubble etc. I am sure that at the end of
the year, the USD will be lower, but wedge suggest we will have one bounce
before that.
This is still valid, but probably we will first see USD index down to the support, and then another rise, probably will break the wedge top.


III. Wedge in EUR/USD:

EUR/USD 3 days chart:
Going up. Currently some consolidation. How down it will go? 1.39.50 is answer from Doug's chart. 1.39.20 is the answer from Boris Peshev (attached bellow). After that rise to 1.39.69, then down to ~1.35.

EUR/USD 1 hour charts:
We have downtrend channel. You may trade speculative, but not really recommended for the moment. We may had the top @ 1.39.25 and we may have bear market now. Or we may have top ahead of us. Who knows.

EUR/USD Elliot wave count from a Boris Peshev:
This is Elliot wave count on EUR/USD. Is made from a friend, I generally agree with it. We have wave 4 down, then we will have wave 5 up. Downsize will be 1.39.20 - 50, based on Fibonacci.


IV. Summary:

EUR continue to rise, USD to fall,
but reversal is near, we need to see 1.39.69 before that.

Two scenarios we discussed with friends.

1. EUR drop, then FED lower rates, and EUR raise to upper wedge border, then EUR begin fall.

2. EUR drop, EUR up to upper wedge border, then FED holds rates, or cut 0.25%, then EUR begin fall

Happy week and trade!!!
V. Carry trade with AUD/JPY:

Will not be updated this time, probably tomorrow.

Blogger templates

If you have no blog, now you have one more reason to do it.

50+ Blogger templates :)

http://mashable.com/2007/09/13/blogger-templates/

2007-09-14

Give a Penny, Take a Penny

Give a Penny, Take a Penny By Clifford F. Thies from Mises.org
http://www.mises.org/story/2254
At my supermarket, there's a machine that says "convert your coins into money," for which service it charges "only" 3 percent.
Aren't coins already money? And, why should it cost money to convert one form of money into another form?

Last USD index post for the week.

Note how USD index is actualy higher last 2-3 days, even EUR/USD hit 1.39.25 yesterday.

Precision calculation* on USD index for today (until now):
HI: 79.81.79 (later probably will hit new high)
LO: 79.39.10

* I do not remember if I explained before, this is calculated against HI/LO from the USD currency basked from a forex system, so must be more precise than you can see it on every other web page :-)

The U.K. ... yes, I said U.K. ... mortgage crisis

The U.K. ... yes, I said U.K. ... mortgage crisis by Mike Larson

http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2007/09/uk-yes-i-said-uk-mortgage-crisis.html

Another interesting article, which describe exactly what I think on the problem,
and what I said 6 mo ago.

Next is Spain :-)

Bernanke's box

Interesting article:
Bernanke's box by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2007/09/bernankes-box.html

My take is that the Fed will go for a 25 bp cut, and that such a cut will prove to be a disappointment for Wall Street. Why not be more aggressive? Because I think Bernanke is in a bit of a box, frankly. What's going on in the currency markets -- and the impact that’s having on other markets, like commodities -- makes it all but impossible to opt for a 50 bp reduction in the federal funds rate.

Interest Bulletin

Interest Bulletin

AU - 6.50% (hold)
CA - 4.50% (hold)
UK - 5.75% (hold)
EU - 4.00% (hold)
NZ - 8.25% (hold)
CH - 2.75% (RAISE)
TR - 17.25% (CUT)
US - pending

2007-09-13

A Secret Time Bomb Made of Gold

Carry trade with Gold?!?!

A Secret Time Bomb Made of Gold:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118954417476624138.html?mod=rss_barrons_markets

EUR/USD - wedge update

EUR/USD 3 days:... and ...
EUR/USD 1 day:Price on the way...

EUR/USD - 2 hour chart (speculative update)

Speculative update. We "moved" the trendline, but it still looks OK. May be I'll go in LONG again.

USD index update

Not yet...

Gold charts

Nice charts from Gary
http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2007/09/gold-weekly-charts-big-picture-all.html

Housing market "extras"

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart. Make sure whatever you do, go out (or set a stop) before 15:00, because of US employment data.

2007-09-12

Wedge update

EUR/USD 1 day chart:Target is now 1.39.72

USD index weekly:
Almost to the "estimated" support

EUR index weekly:
Same as EUR/USD - almost to the resistance.

USD index today:
HI: 79.76.55
LO: 79.26.89

Chart from a friend

From a friend - EUR/USD Elliot Wave count.
(click to enlarge)

Hello 1.39 :-)

Hello EUR/USD 1.39 :-)

we are stopping trade.

EUR/USD 1.39.00

And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you...
Friedrich Nietzsche

Joke from a friend


Friend saw this in a newspaper and
sent me this couple of days ago ;-)

USD index uodate

This is what we spoke about. USD index broke the support line.
Shall you continue to be EUR/USD bull? - Decide for yourself.
We will, but target is not lower - 1.38.50

2007-09-11

EUR/USD - wedge update

EUR/USD 4 hours. Only 1 cent to wedge resistance...
Once resistance is reached - we will became bears :-)

In case EUR/USD go to resistance before FED meeting,
this could mean that FED will not cut the rate, or will cut 0.25 or will cut discount rate.

Fed may cut discount rate, not fed funds rate

Fed may cut discount rate, not fed funds rate:

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1031669320070910?src=091007_1125_INVESTING_analysis%3A_federal_reserve

USD index matrix

OK,
Calculation is here:
http://nmmmnu.blogspot.com/2007/09/usd-index-matrix.html

This is experimental estimation how much USD index will raise if EUR/USD raise from 1.38.30 to 1.40.00.

Is necessary to do so, because on USD index wedge we are at the support already, but on EUR/USD wedge we are far from the resistance yet.

The estimation is crude, because I assume the other components (such GBP/USD, USD/JPY etc.) will be unchanged.

Chart of USD index with EUR/USD = 1/39.70 looks realistic, but...

USD index matrix

USD index matrix.
Will explain what is it in next post.
ComponentRateShareCalc1Calc2
Base50.14351.000050.143550.1435
USD/JPY114.17500.13601.904795.5090
GBP/USD2.0305-0.11900.919287.7889
USD/CAD1.04310.09101.003888.1266
USD/SEK6.74950.04201.083595.4853
USD/CHF1.18870.03601.006296.0813
EUR/USD1.3827-0.57600.829879.7239
79.7239
Without EUR96.0813
1.3830-0.57600.829679.7123
1.3840-0.57600.829379.6791
1.3850-0.57600.828979.6460
1.3860-0.57600.828679.6129
1.3870-0.57600.828379.5798
1.3880-0.57600.827979.5468
1.3890-0.57600.827679.5138
1.3900-0.57600.827279.4809
1.3910-0.57600.826979.4479
1.3920-0.57600.826579.4151
1.3930-0.57600.826279.3822
1.3940-0.57600.825979.3494
1.3950-0.57600.825579.3166
1.3960-0.57600.825279.2839
1.3970-0.57600.824879.2512
1.3980-0.57600.824579.2186
1.3990-0.57600.824279.1859
1.4000-0.57600.823879.1534