This week I am on vacation, so will not do it :)
Things are messy anyway, so check again the chart I posted Friday,
probably will be most important chart for the moment.
Happy trade and have a nice week ;)
What if the wedge is not the wedge at all?NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street headed toward a higher open Thursday on speculation that new economic data will show enough weakness to give the Federal Reserve more reasons to cut interest rates.Well I do not understand. Are they stupid or what?
...
Kitco.com website traffic on Alexa.com tracker.1. FED cut the base rate with 0.50%.
2. FED also cut discount rate with 0.50%
3. EUR/USD hit new record 1.41.25
4. Gold still @ 730+ USD. This was higher weekly close for 20-30+ years.
Wedge is completed and broken from "wrong" side. There is mixed signals. RSI have bullish divergence, MACD - confirms bearish developments. However I expect a correction anyway, and rally to upper boundary.
Similar to USD index. It raised to the top and broke the wedge on the "wrong" way. Mixed signals - both bearish and bullish.As you can see, back in 1992, USD was down once 78.43, well, we had similar reading, I can not say how the recent low was, but was close to 78.43.Before, I wrote following, and once again I copy/paste it:
For first-time readers, and those who do not know, the wedges are reversal patterns. This wedge is bullish for USD index, no matter what people say for US economy, debt bubble etc. I am sure that at the end of the year, the USD will be lower, but wedge suggest we will have one bounce before that.This is still valid, even the reality shows something else :) .
Broke the upper boundary.1. The wedges are usualy broken the other side.Happy week and trade!!!
2. We are on important support of USD index.
3. Elliot wave count on EUR/USD shows a decline must due.
4. The rally in EUR can not go without correction.
5. On a monthly chart of USD index (not shown) there are a trend line that go to 81.20. This is similar reading that the upper boundary of our wedge. I will publish this chart next week.
6. There are some short term wedge on USD index and also on EUR/USD, which is in favour of USD raise.
7. US economy may be in trouble, but EUR-o zone economy is not something else. We will see bad data for EUR-o zone too, as it happened for UK with their recent bank-run in Northern Rock and expectations for trouble in Barkley bank.
Bearish or not, we may have inflection point now. Short term up or down - we will see very soon. Note the High pick is *ONLY* to ~1.41.18, must be to about 1.41.40, but is not.
Wedge now completed.
Wedge now completed.
Wedge was completed before, now we may be see throw over.
EUR/USD 10 min chart.
Wedge is almost, almost completed. We may see some more rally in EUR/USD.
Wedge is not completed, but in XEU/USD ratio chart - wedge is completed.
Wedge is completed. Now we may expect move down. This probably will not happwen today.
Here you are little bit education.
EUR/USD 30 min. We have a triangle. This triangle may be will be broken on the bottom, but I am not 100% sure, because if we extend the support line (brown), it continue and is support on 2-4 hours chart.
1. ECB holds the rate.
2. EUR/USD hit new record 1.39.25 (or whatever it was)
3. Gold still @ 700+ USD
4. Many analysts still believe that FED will lower the rate.
1. Not to cut the rate - this will be bullish for the dollar.
2. Not to cut the rate, but to cur discount rate some more - this is generally bearish, but may be still considered bullish for the dollar. Dollar probably fall, but not that much.
3. To cut the rate with 0.25% - this is generally bearish, but may be still considered bullish for the dollar. Dollar probably fall, but not that much.
4. To cut the rate with 0.25% + to cut discount rate again this is bearish for the dollar.
5. To cut the rate with 0.50% - this is what the business wants. Very bearish for the dollar.
Almost down the way. A rally will follow, but not before it hits the support.
Similar to USD index. Not yet...
This is based on a chart of Doug Gnazzo. Thanks. We see the EUR index "consolidating". The two support lines show possible downsize.
Almost up. Probably even completed. We will see.As you can see, back in 1992, USD was down once 78.43, so the drop that the wedge suggest is not in uncharted waters at all (at least to 78.43 :-) )Before, I wrote following, and once again I copy/paste it:
For first-time readers, and those who do not know, theThis is still valid, but probably we will first see USD index down to the support, and then another rise, probably will break the wedge top.
wedges are reversal patterns. This wedge is bullish for USD index, no matter
what people say for US economy, debt bubble etc. I am sure that at the end of
the year, the USD will be lower, but wedge suggest we will have one bounce
before that.
Going up. Currently some consolidation. How down it will go? 1.39.50 is answer from Doug's chart. 1.39.20 is the answer from Boris Peshev (attached bellow). After that rise to 1.39.69, then down to ~1.35.
We have downtrend channel. You may trade speculative, but not really recommended for the moment. We may had the top @ 1.39.25 and we may have bear market now. Or we may have top ahead of us. Who knows.
This is Elliot wave count on EUR/USD. Is made from a friend, I generally agree with it. We have wave 4 down, then we will have wave 5 up. Downsize will be 1.39.20 - 50, based on Fibonacci.
Note how USD index is actualy higher last 2-3 days, even EUR/USD hit 1.39.25 yesterday.
EUR/USD - 1 hour chart. Make sure whatever you do, go out (or set a stop) before 15:00, because of US employment data.
Target is now 1.39.72
Almost to the "estimated" support
Same as EUR/USD - almost to the resistance.
This is what we spoke about. USD index broke the support line.
EUR/USD 4 hours. Only 1 cent to wedge resistance...
| Component | Rate | Share | Calc1 | Calc2 |
| Base | 50.1435 | 1.0000 | 50.1435 | 50.1435 |
| USD/JPY | 114.1750 | 0.1360 | 1.9047 | 95.5090 |
| GBP/USD | 2.0305 | -0.1190 | 0.9192 | 87.7889 |
| USD/CAD | 1.0431 | 0.0910 | 1.0038 | 88.1266 |
| USD/SEK | 6.7495 | 0.0420 | 1.0835 | 95.4853 |
| USD/CHF | 1.1887 | 0.0360 | 1.0062 | 96.0813 |
| EUR/USD | 1.3827 | -0.5760 | 0.8298 | 79.7239 |
| 79.7239 | ||||
| Without EUR | 96.0813 | |||
| 1.3830 | -0.5760 | 0.8296 | 79.7123 | |
| 1.3840 | -0.5760 | 0.8293 | 79.6791 | |
| 1.3850 | -0.5760 | 0.8289 | 79.6460 | |
| 1.3860 | -0.5760 | 0.8286 | 79.6129 | |
| 1.3870 | -0.5760 | 0.8283 | 79.5798 | |
| 1.3880 | -0.5760 | 0.8279 | 79.5468 | |
| 1.3890 | -0.5760 | 0.8276 | 79.5138 | |
| 1.3900 | -0.5760 | 0.8272 | 79.4809 | |
| 1.3910 | -0.5760 | 0.8269 | 79.4479 | |
| 1.3920 | -0.5760 | 0.8265 | 79.4151 | |
| 1.3930 | -0.5760 | 0.8262 | 79.3822 | |
| 1.3940 | -0.5760 | 0.8259 | 79.3494 | |
| 1.3950 | -0.5760 | 0.8255 | 79.3166 | |
| 1.3960 | -0.5760 | 0.8252 | 79.2839 | |
| 1.3970 | -0.5760 | 0.8248 | 79.2512 | |
| 1.3980 | -0.5760 | 0.8245 | 79.2186 | |
| 1.3990 | -0.5760 | 0.8242 | 79.1859 | |
| 1.4000 | -0.5760 | 0.8238 | 79.1534 | |
My name is Nikolay Mihaylov, and these are my finance notes. I am *NOT* so experienced in this area, but may be is good for you to see how I am thinking :) Unlike most other blogs, here, everything is real transaction, unless is theoretical post, which is used for finding entering price. So enjoy it.