Europe's Crisis: Much Bigger Than Subprime, Worse Than U.S.


I did not know we have crysis here... :-)

This is more for UK, Poland and their zlota, Austria and Switzerland.

For Bulgarian readers:

Bulgarian Lev is fixed to the EUR. So we will not suffer more than EU. The movie is for Poland or Romania where the currency *is* floating. Romanian Leia is not 25% cheaper to the EUR.

Realestate - I said realestate will crash long time ago. However I do not believe the realestate to fall more than 20-30% (from top to the bottom), because the pricese are not balooned enought. Sure 30% is too much if you pay mortgage.

About banks here - we do not have Bulgarian banks, except probably PIB. The private sources in Bulbank for example told me, that the "mother" bank (Unicredit) stops support Bulgarian branche.

I do not know what the banks will do.

Finally the EUR - I believe ECB will print, not as crazy as FED (USD), so we will see inflation soon or later. However, it is VERY important what ECB will decide to do if some country "fell in bankrupsy". ECB may decide *not* to do anything, because EU is bunch of countries and ECB is not Austrian Central Bank so ECB is not obligated to help any country.

To understand this last centence, here you are the parallel with USA - (USA is a country. FED is USA Central bank. US states are like districts. So in USA, FED is obligated to "help" USA, so they will in most cases help the single state as well.

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