2008-07-31
Recession is official?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aW9BoDQLVQ9I&refer=economy
Packman game continue
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN3143999520080731?rpc=44
Goldcorp consolidates Red Lake District with $1.5 billion acquisition of Gold Eagle
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/July2008/31/c8682.html
Best Investments for the Next 5 Years
by Larry Edelson 07-31-08
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2035
Readings...
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/index.asp
Commodities and inflation
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7a7b336c-5e6e-11dd-b354-000077b07658.html
(nice charts)
The Difference Between a Panic and a Crash
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/difference-between-panic-and-crash.html
Just How Accurate is the ADP Payroll Report?
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/just-how-accurate-is-adp-payroll-report.html
Lopping off zeros in Zimbabwe
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/07/lopping-off-zeros-in-zimbabwe.html
(Zimbabwe Dollar denomination)
Interesting debt data
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/07/interesting-debt-data.html
Wednesday Commodities Round-Up; Agricultural
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/wednesday-commodities-round-up_30.html
Curing US Inflation, Zimbabwe Style
by Adrian Ash (Bullionvault.com)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10871.htm
2008-07-30
A log scale won't help this chart
The Mess That Greenspan Made: A log scale won't help this chart
Man, this is highly inflationary... or in case money are destroyed - highly deflationary. In all cases this is not good.
I have 2 words for it - 1:BUY 2:GOLD :-)
Get Ready for the Next Leg Up in Oil
by Sean Brodrick 07-30-08
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2032
Mark Bailey interview
http://watch.bnn.ca/monday/#clip69882
2008-07-29
Dollar and Anti-Dollar.
May Case-Shiller data: 15.8% YOY drop in prices
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/may-case-shiller-data-158-yoy-drop-in.html
Case-Shiller: House Prices Decline in May
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/349431737/case-shiller-house-prices-decline-in.html
July consumer confidence inches higher
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/july-consumer-confidence-inches-higher.html
Readings...
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/348815921/merrill-announces-sale-of-abs-cdos-more.html
Merrill Lynch dials for more dollars
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/merrill-lynch-dials-for-more-dollars.html
White House: Record deficit coming
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/white-house-record-deficit-coming.html
IMF Sees No End to the Credit Crisis - the possibility of hyperinflation
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/imf-sees-no-end-to-credit-crisis.html
Who’s really getting bailed out here
from NakedShorts by Greg Newton
http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/2008/07/whos-really-getting-bailed-out-here.html
(Japan)
Charts and News for Monday
from Red-Hot Resources by Sean Brodrick
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-and-news-for-monday.html
Natural Gas Dropping
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/natural-gas-dropping.html
Homeowner rescue awaits President Bush’s signature
from Lawinfo Weblog by admin
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/LawinfoWeblog/~3/348478954/
2008-07-28
two more US bankfailures and starbucks
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2008/07/26/where-starbucks-went-wrong.aspx?source=nl
U.S. regulators seize two more banks, engineer sale
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080726/ts_nm/banks_fdic_dc;_ylt=AtfoT0TyAahaYz8ZMYEbQGoDW7oF
Weekend readings
from NakedShorts by Greg Newton
http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/2008/07/now-failure-friday.html
How Low Can Commodities Go?
from Red-Hot Resources by Sean Brodrick
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/07/how-low-can-commodities-go.html
Carbon emissions trade in EU...
Търговията на ЕС с въглеродни емисии – загуби и съмнителна полза за климата
http://e-vestnik.bg/4332
(in Bulgarian)
India's Gold Demand: A Panic for Gold?
by Adrian Ash (BullionVault.com)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10832.htm
Gold/Silver Market Update
by Clive Maund
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10851.htm
...and...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10850.htm
Honest Money Gold and Silver Report: Market Wrap
by Douglas V. Gnazzo
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10857.htm
Wall Street in Financial Stock Fantasyland
by Mike Larson
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2014
2008-07-25
Readings...
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/345448011/bear-market-phases.html
Ten Bear Market Phases
1. A huge buy the dip mentality sets in during the initial decline. Most party goes cannot fathom that party has ended.
2. Moderate concern sets in when buy the dip stops working.
3. Initial panic.
4. Numerous bottom calls are made, all wrong.
5. Search for the guilty.
6. Punishment of the innocent.
7. More panic.
8. Lawsuits fly.
9. Regulatory power is given to those most responsible for spiking the punch bowl.
10. Congress gets in the act and makes things worse
Ridiculous Lawsuits Fly At Taxpayer Expense
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/344971717/ridiculous-lawsuits-fly-at-taxpayer.html
San Diego sues Bank of America to halt foreclosures
Los Angeles Sues MBIA, Ambac, Others Over Bond Insurance
Unsecured Creditors Pulling Funds from Washington Mutual
from Jesse's Café Américain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/unsecured-creditors-pulling-funds-from.html
Fitch Projects A Further 25% Decline in US Home Prices
from Jesse's Café Américain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/fitch-projects-further-25-decline-in-us.html
...and...
same
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/345095506/fitch-projects-additional-25-percent.html
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Rise Sharply
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/344729016/freddie-mac-mortgage-rates-rise-sharply.html
2.2 million vacant homes for sale
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/345363963/22-million-vacant-homes-for-sale.html
Price comparisson
2008-07-24
Lets the pacman game begins
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080724/kinross_gold_acquisition.html?.v=1
According my calculation, if we assume Kinross share is $21, Aurelian shareholders will receive little bit more than 6 $ per Aurelian share, which is about 50% more than current price (~$4).
Kinross currently down 4-5 %, but in long term they will profit from this merge a lot.
This is informational message, and is not buy/sell recommendation.
Readings from yesterday and today
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/you-know-banking-system-is-unsound-when.html
(an excelent article from Mish)
Mish: "The entire US banking system is insolvent."
http://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2008/07/mish-entire-us-banking-system-is.html
(Comments on previous article)
What's the Cost For Fannie and Freddie?
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/whats-cost-for-fannie-and-freddie.html
Marc Faber's Latest Views
Video:
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Faber%20Says%20Fannie%2C%20Freddie%20Should%20Split%20Up%2C%20Not%20Get%20Aid&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIlnyetSHhx0.asf
(The world is in recession already, I put out a negative view for industrial commodities for the second half of 2008 and I stick to this view)
Fannie, Freddie Rise After Lawmakers Agree on Bill
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aEUQ4aE8D2HI&refer=news
Ford: $8.7 Billion Loss
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/07/ford-87-billion-loss.html
China may dump its US Treasury holdings
http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/07/23/china-may-dump-its-us-treasury-holdings/
Thursday Oil Market Round-Up
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/thursday-oil-market-round-up_24.html
Charts on Gold, the Dollar, Oil -- and News You Can Use
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-on-gold-dollar-oil-and-news-you.html
UK Investors Buy Physical Gold in Record Numbers - Target Price for Next Leg Increases
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/uk-investors-buy-physical-gold-in.html
Charts in the Babson Style for Midweek 23 July 2008
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-in-babson-style-for-midweek-23.html
Updated Gold Forecast for 2008-2009
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/updated-gold-forecast-for-2008-2009.html
($1200+ at the year end)
2008-07-22
Wachovia - + 6%
Wachovia - 10% underwater
Looks like this was more that the street expected because pre-market WB is 10% underwater.
Once again I was prooven right not to tuch financials :)
Black Swans
Oil movie
http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=799450872&fromSearch=n
Airline sector
by Clive Maund
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10802.htm
2008-07-21
Readings...
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/bank-credit-and-money-supply-update.html
About Last Week's Rally ----
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/about-last-weeks-rally.html
Who will bite this bullet?
from The Yellow Brick Road by Andy Bebut
http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/07/21/who-will-bite-this-bullet/
The Most Important Chart In The World
by Captain Hook
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10798.htm
(minners/gold ratio)
Julie Alexandria video on lenders :)
Click PLAY several times. First time you will need to watch the advertizement.
Stormy Weather Edition
by Sean Brodrick
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-and-news-for-monday-stormy.html
Uncle Jay Explains the ... Plummet word
http://youtube.com/?v=npfUnygrbUg
US Stock market / Gold cycles and bank failures 1928 - 2024
US Stock market / Gold cycles and bank failures 1928 - 2024
http://www.novini.net/2008/07/us-stock-market-gold-cycles-and-bank.html
Oil bubble again :-)
According to him - "no fundamental reason for oil raise". ;-)
However - finances are great "it's getting less bad". ;-)
I believe JPMorgan wanna load a truck with oil.
Great Depression Again :)
from The Great Depression of 2006 by Jim in San Marcos
http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/2008/07/man-who-lived-through-1929-reprinted.html
2008-07-20
Fear: IndyMac checks not accepted
Finally able to withdraw their money, customers can’t open new accounts.
AP updated 10:41 a.m. ET, Thurs., July. 17, 2008
LOS ANGELES - The frustration didn't end for some IndyMac customers when they finally were able to withdraw their funds from the failing Southern California bank seized last week by federal regulators.
Some people have run into more problems when they tried to deposit IndyMac cashier checks at other banks.
Sheryl MacPhee said she waited in line two hours Tuesday at an IndyMac branch in San Marino to liquidate a certificate of deposit. But when she took it to a Washington Mutual branch in South Pasadena to deposit, she said a manager told her their new policy was not to accept IndyMac checks. If the customer insisted, she said she was told, it could take eight weeks or more to access the full amount.
"Sure, IndyMac will give you a check," MacPhee told the Los Angeles Times, "but what good is it if no other institution will accept it?"
WaMu spokeswoman Olivia Riley said her bank is accepting IndyMac checks, "but depending on the specifics, funds will be subject to an extended hold period."
Officials at the Office of Thrift Supervision said that regulating agency is investigating complaints about the checks.
Wells Fargo is placing holds of up to nine business days on many IndyMac checks. That hold policy applies to checks from other banks, just not as often as those from IndyMac, Wells Fargo spokeswoman Mary Trigg said. Her company is concerned that "people could be taking advantage of this situation by creating fraudulent checks," Trigg said.
The Office of Thrift Supervision transferred control of IndyMac to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Friday because it didn't think IndyMac could meet depositor demand.
William Ruberry, a spokesman for the federal Office of Thrift Supervision, said the agency has received several reports about problems that IndyMac account holders have had transferring their money.
"Our position is that other institutions should honor IndyMac checks," he said, "and we're looking into the situation."
Over the weekend, it became IndyMac Federal Bank, FSB, and by Monday morning the scramble by bank customers to recover their money was on.
2008-07-19
Readings
by Peter Schiff
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10773.htm
(Fredy and Fanny resque with the blank cheque)
Panic on Wall Street Is Building-Gold and Silver's Role
by David Morgan
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10776.htm
(Is not about silver, but for Fredy and Fanny resque)
Why the Mania Phase in Gold May Be Upon Us
by Jeff Clark
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10777.htm
(Gold bull market phase 3)
2008-07-18
Sinclair's Buy Orders on Gold
Subject: Bids Getting Filled
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGAs,
I got hit on my $960.10 bid, yesterday.
I got hit on my $950.10 in the early AM.
I am bidding $940.10 for the largest of the buys.
Note that I never bid or offer at a round number. Somehow, I miss the price by $0.10. My habit then is to offer $0.10 above and below depending on what I am doing at the time.
On purchases my first purchase is the lowest amount. My second purchase is a tad higher volume. My last bid is to fill the basket. The odds increase as the price decreases that that price represents the bottom of a reaction.
I don't know if it will go to $940.10 so that is a risk. I know gold is going to at least $1650, however I never chase gold up. I buy weakness, not strength.
All the best,
Jim
Interesting view on oil
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/07/friday-charts-and-news.html
Pakistani investors attack stock exchange
Investors ransacked stock exchanges in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad yesterday, reacting to a share-price rout that has devastated the life savings of many Pakistanis.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4354306.ece
This is what happens when government try to control stockexchange.
Naked Fines
In July, Citigroup, Daiwa Securities, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse collectively paid $1.3M
http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/09/13/naked-shorts-jp-morgan-chase_biz_cx_0913naked.html
click second time if it not works first time ;)
Readings...
by Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/selective-enforcement-of-regulation-sho.html
(Shorting Curbs and naked short selling again)
Forex Fridays -- the Dollar
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/forex-fridays-dollar.html
Oil markets: Bottoming out or taking a breather?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080717/oil_prices.html
This is informative article. They do not say top is in.
Pop Goes the Oil Bubble!
from CNBC :-)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=795927426
According those heroes, oil go to $40 :)
The End of Oil's Boom :)
A 10% correction over the past week could signal the end of a long bull run for crude oil
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2008/db20080716_119625.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_news+%2B+analysis
Another overoptimist :)
However, I found the comments very interesting:
http://app.businessweek.com/UserComments/combo_review?action=all&style=wide&productId=33520&productCode=spec
2008-07-17
Articles from Garry
from Garry
http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2008/07/gold-stocks-oil.html
Wrap up to a very interesting day (July 16, 2008)
from Garry
http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2008/07/wrap-up-to-very-interesting-day.html
The Government Changes The Rules in The Middle of The Game
(once again for financial shorts)
Loses and surges...
Coca-Cola Co. 2Q Profit Drops 23 Percent
Nokia's 2Q profit drops 61 percent
Continental Slides to 2Q Loss on Fuel Costs
FRE - +11% premarket
FNM - +9% premarket
LEH - +7% premarket
Readings...
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/337810508/tossed-to-dogs.html
A Bad "Short" Day
from The Great Depression of 2006 by Jim in San Marcos
http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/2008/07/bad-short-day.html
The SEC has restricted naked shorts (this doesn’t affect the average trader shorting with local brokerages; they are loaning you the stock). The restrictions apply to primarily hedge funds. The 19 stocks on the list are: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, BNP Paribas, Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Daiwa Securities, Deutsche Bank, Allianz SE, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank, HSBC, J P Morgan, Mizuho Financial, and UBS. Hedge funds are the target of this restriction.
Do you get the idea that a lot of people think that something is wrong with these stocks? Is it wise to own stock on this list? I guess the real question is; do you think any stock on this “Do not short list” is going to prosper in this market and make you money?????
SEC Restricts Shorting 19 Financial Stocks
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/337667989/sec-restricts-shorting-19-financial.html
Today's (Yesterday's) Markets
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/todays-markets_16.html
Charts in the Babson Style for Midweek 16 July 2008
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-in-babson-style-for-midweek-16.html
(post from yesterday)
Viewings ;)
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/07/15/cbsnews_investigates/main4264014.shtml
Indi Mac day 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=In9rbjeH1-4
Matt Simons: $600 oil. Simmons Sees Oil Climbing on `Unbelievably' Tight Supply
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Simmons%20Sees%20Oil%20Climbing%20on%20%60Unbelievably'%20Tight%20Supply&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v9m9ExQSFH3A.asf
2008-07-16
Don't Blame the Shorts
video here
My inrernet is slow so I did not watched it in full. Will do tomorrow.
Worse is behind us :-)
U.S. Policymakers Restore Confidence in Fannie and Freddie
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080715.GIF
(Can you believe it?!?! hohohoho)
Financial Stock Manipulation
by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/sec-kicks-over-financial-stock.html
WTIC
http://nmmmnu.blogspot.com/2008/07/wtic.html
Now Oil is @ 134 sharp. Price is still in the channel, but we will see what will happen later.
IndyMac delisted
Bank Run
Some people waited on the line from 5:30pm previous day...
ATM's and Internet banking was stopped from several days.
http://ktla.trb.com/video/?clipId=2693720&topVideoCatNo=79422&c=79422&autoStart=true&activePane=info&LaunchPageAdTag=homepage&clipFormat=
Socialism for Freddie and Fannie
Today from WSJ:
SEC Curbs Shorting of GSE Stocks, Considers Limits for Wider Markethttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB121614248005255151.html?mod=djemalertN
By Kara Scannell
Word Count: 348 Companies Featured in This Article: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley
WASHINGTON--The Securities and Exchange Commission announced an emergency action aimed at reducing short-selling that targets Wall Street brokerage firms as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and will immediately begin considering new rules to extend new requirements to the rest of the market.
SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said the SEC would institute an emergency order requiring any traders to pre-borrow stock before shorting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the ...
WTF ?!?!
So you can short IBM or MFN or NVDA, but you can not short Fredie Krueger.
This really is socialism. I don't think short selling is bad. For every short there is a long, even if is naked-short.
Financials sucks. People are scared of stock exchange too. Prices will go down. They must.
Speaking of naked-shorts, I really hope somebody to naked-short those financials, so finally SEC pay attention on this problem.
Update:
Same from Mish:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/sec-panic-shorting-curbs-placed-on-gse.html
WSJ Article full text:
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/07/15/the-fed-limited-short-selling-fannie-freddie-and-lehman-will-it-work/?mod=yahoo_hs
Update:
Same from Jesse Cafe American:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/sec-issues-emergency-rule-on-short.html
2008-07-15
WTIC
Note the wedge I spoke before is still there. I do not see prices fall to $110 - 120, but this is a technical possibility, which I personally will ignore it, because of fundamentals. If it happens, I will keep and add to my possitions, but once again - I just do not see how this scenario will happen.
Fannie and Freddie - video interview
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121607930615852687.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Jim Rogers video interview with Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Rogers%20Calls%20Fannie%2C%20Freddie%20Rescue%20Plan%20a%20%60Disaster'&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIQvD7yNni2I.asf
2008-07-14
Global Money Supply (2008 Update)
The overall weighted annual M3 money supply growth for all areas covered in this essay is 12.4%.
US = 19%
UK = 14%
EU = 10%
CH = 3% - thats why I like CHF
Congratulations!!! Now go and buy gold :-)
http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00412
Readings...
from Safehaven by David Morgan
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10742.htm
(did not read it but David Morgan write well)
Fed enacts new mortgage rules
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/fed-enacts-new-mortgage-rules.html
(Mike explains new mortgage rules)
How Many Bullets Does The Fed Have Left?
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/335254470/how-many-bullets-does-fed-have-left.html
(fallin' bank shares)
Mish Bank Scorecard :-)
Washington Mutual(WM) -26% at $ 3.64
Wachovia Bank (WB) -10% at $10.36
Bank United (BKUNA) -17% at $ .64
Lehman (LEH) - 5% at $13.72
Merrill Lynch (MER) - 7% at $25.50
Fannie Mae (FNM) - 3% at $10.00
Freddie Mac (FRE) - 9% at $ 6.99
CIT Group (CIT) -11% at $ 6.30
National City (NCC) -32% at $ 3.00
Global Money Supply (2008 Update)
by Mike Hewitt
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10746.htm
(see my next post for it)
1 million iPhone 3Gs sold over weekend
"iPhone 3G had a stunning opening weekend, [...] It took 74 days to sell the first one million original iPhones, so the new iPhone 3G is clearly off to a great start around the world." said Steve Jobs.
Readings... from SafeHaven
by Randy
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10738.htm
Silver/Gold/USD Market Update
by Clive Maund
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10734.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10735.htm
Honest Money Gold and Silver Report: Market Wrap
by Douglas V. Gnazzo
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10732.htm
Readings...
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/us-dollar-long-term-chart-with.html
Federal Regulators Take Over IndyMac After a Run on the Bank
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/federal-regulators-take-over-indymac.html
US Treasury Plan to Inject $15 Billion Into Ailing Freddie and Fannie for Special Shares Class
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/us-treasury-plan-to-inject-15-billion.html
IndyMac fails
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/indymac-fails.html
Fed, Treasury taking steps to support Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/fed-treasury-taking-steps-to-support.html
1,600 Percent Interest on Text Message Loans
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/334033284/1600-percent-interest-on-text-message.html
(for Sweden)
U.S. Taxpayer Bailout of China Over Fannie Mae
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/333195281/us-taxpayer-bailout-of-china-over.html
2008-07-11
Lets bailout begin...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080711/mortgage_giants_crisis.html
Fannie and Freddie - what other say about them
Symbol | Last Trade | Change | Volume | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
FNM | 9:31AM ET | 7.28 | -5.92 | -44.85% | 29,279,604 |
FRE | 9:31AM ET | 4.33 | -3.67 | -45.87% | 18,884,169 |
LEH | 9:31AM ET | 14.07 | -3.23 | -18.67% | 3,307,970 |
The stunning collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/stunning-collapse-of-fannie-mae-and.html
Let the Bailouts Begin
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/let-bailouts-begin.html
US Considers Nationalizing Fannie and Freddie
by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/us-considers-nationalizing-fannie-and.html
Oil prices - funny movie
DiZaStEr
Lehman - down only 10 % pre-open.
DJIA
2006 May peak is broken too.
Now we going to 10,700 area.
We're All Homeowners Now, Nationalization of Fannie, Freddie Unavoidable
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/fannie-and-freddie-waterfalls-are-too.html
U.S. Oil Imports
A must read.
Securing the Insecure: U.S. Oil Imports
by Marin Katusa (Casey Research, LLC.)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10702.htm
2008-07-10
Lasy Funds...
I was amazed, that from the beginning of thge years ALL funds was average 10% down. Only exceptions were some bond funds - 2-3% up, and currency funds - 5-6% up.
I can not believe this - can not be true :)
Fed chief: Gov't needs more power when firms fail
And what they want? - More regulations. More money printing.
I am happy I am not US taxpayer. Because is the taxpayer who will help failing banks and after that the bank will skins the taxpayer ;-)
Yesterday I meet a friend and we spoke - You can not go to a restaurant, eat, drink and finally when time come to pay to say - "have no money". Well if you have no money - go to wash some plates. - This is what happen in USA.
I say - Regulations can not help American people - they help only Bernanke fruends - big banks.
Buy gold while is still cheap. Gold going to at least $1,200 next 2-3 months.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080710/financial_overhaul.html
Whats happen with PBR
Problem is as follows:
UPDATE 2-Union threatens strike at Brazil's main oil fields
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN104808320080710?rpc=44
Mixed Readings - Fanny & Fredy, Mr.Consumer, Oil and more
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/331509054/former-fed-governor-says-fannie-freddie.html
Fannie and Freddie are 'Insolvent'
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/fannie-and-freddie-are-insolvent.html
FNM = -6.40%
FRE = -18.91%
LEH = -10.00%
The Consumer
by Don Harrold
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBEr8b9dIjU
Thursday Oil Market Round-Up
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/thursday-oil-market-round-up_10.html
U.S. Foreclosures Rose 53% in June, Bank Seizures Almost Triple
July 10 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abT98mv4UtNI&refer=home
The Dow Transport Average Composition by Sector
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/dow-transport-average-composition-by.html
(visualy explains what DJTA is)
American Icon Sold
This is what happens when you debase your currency. Someone who have money, often foreigners, comes and buys your quality assets. It happen in Weimar Germany, it happen in Bulgaria, USA story will not be different.
After all Abu-Dhabi currency is probably* peg to the dollar, and it is debased "automaticly" as FED debase the USD. Do you expect they are stupid and will just stay and watch?
The Americans did this to themself :-)
*) I am unsure what is Abu-Dhabi currency
Abu Dhabi Fund Acquires Most of Chrysler Building
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121561441265439259.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
In Bulgarian:
Арабски фонд купи небостъргача Chrysler Building за 800 млн. долара
http://www.investor.bg/?id=66282
2008-07-09
Oil
There is slightly possibility for a wedge (blue line is the top), but fundamentals do not support it.
UK Property: How Low Will It Go?
UK Property: How Low Will It Go?
by Commodity Watch Radio:
http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2008/07/09/uk-property-how-low-will-it-go/
Readings...
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/us-stocks-rally-on-decline-in-oil.html
(unlike explanation of last 2-3 days market action)
We're All Homeowners Now, Nationalization of Fannie, Freddie Unavoidable
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/330304495/were-all-homeowners-now-nationalization.html
Toxic CDOs Renamed
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/330096532/toxic-cdos-renamed.html
ChartWorks: Post Bubble Highs in an Equity Secular Bear Market
by Bob Hoye
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10694.htm
(interesting but failed to follow it)
The Credit Crisis is Nowhere Near Over
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/credit-crisis-is-nowhere-near-over.html
Decision Time for Gold and the Dollar
by Roy Martens
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10690.htm
The Indian Gold Train is Leaving the Station ...
by Alex Wallenwein
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10692.htm
(Interesting if is true. I did not think Indians sold the gold at the first place.)
EU and Biofuels (in Bulgarian)
http://e-vestnik.bg/4214
2008-07-08
House price boom and bust : Where all those money go?
Don Harrold just produce another conspirative video here you are a embeded link :
http://nmmmnu.blogspot.com/2008/07/don-harrold-video.html
His idea is that the money from housing crunch are in the system. That is very interesting oppinion. I thought similar think before.
However, is it possible the money NOT to be in the system - the money can be created in thin air, but they can be destroyed in thin air as well.
Peter Schiff before said that the money went to the builders and "early investors". However, most of them (especially investors) had loans. So, small calculation:
House price boom:
- Mr. Joe get 100K loan (no interest and no money down for simplicity). -
- Where money comes from? Fractional banking reserve or from FED Discount window. We assume the bank do not package the loan.
- Mr. Joe buys house from builder.
- Builder has the money, but he probably has debt, also house cost some materials. Let say after cover everything, the builder make 30K profit. Builder also use the money to build new houses (unless house value drops)
- Mr. Joe gets lucky. His house let say double and now costs 200K. He sells it to someone else.
- Mr. Joe receives 200K, cover the loan etc and he have let say 90K profit.
- Because the bank created or borrowed the money for Mr. Joe, they need to cover too. Bank makes just the interest, money down fees - thats not too much money, no more than 10K. In all cases money gets destroyed.
- Mr. Joe receives 200K, cover the loan etc and he have let say 90K profit.
- New owner have loan similar to Mr. Joe and the story is repeating (unless house value drops)
In case of loan packaging situation is not much different. In such case the bank is transparent and most of profit is collected from the "SIV investors".
Once house price collapse:
- Mr. Joe is OK. He have no house.
- Builder may be:
- Builder may be takes loss, because he invested the money into new houses that can not be sold for full value, and can not cover the expences.
- Builder may take no loss, if he did not began building yet.
- Current house owner have 2 options -
- to pay his loan, which is much bigger than the house.
- In such case bank takes no loss.
- not to pay the loan. In such case owner is OK, he lived some time for small rent or for free.
- Bank takes loss, because the house does not cover the loan.
- to pay his loan, which is much bigger than the house.
In case of loan packaging situation is not much different. In such case the bank is transparent and full loss is collected from the "SIV investors".
So in this example, the everyone makes not much money compared to the price of the home. May be Mr.Joe make most money compared to invested money - he invested almost 0, but let say 10-20K and gets 90K . This is because the leverage works for him.
So, the conclusion is money are in early investors. This is where all the money go.
Am I correct?
Note I also assume Mr. Joe did not bought new Lexus + Plasma TV with surround sound + Jacuzzi system for bath.
If he did that, then this mean he did not sold the house, and he used the house as ATM - this means new loan, new fractional reserve money (or Discount window money). If Mr. Joe is non-responsible, this means he exchange the real money he made (90K) for "virtual" money that soon will be destroyed (when house price collapse).
Don Harrold video.
Here you are the latest conspiracy :) :) :) from Don Harrold. However the money he speaks of - may be there were no such money at the first place, may be it was only leverage and loans?
2008-07-07
Some more nonsense
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=8660926&src=finance&ch=1316259
Who Killed the Economy
Who Killed the Economy? Greenspan Leads Portfolio.com's Blame Game
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/32549/Who-Killed-the-Economy-Greenspan-Leads-Portfolio.com
Results may be seen here:
http://www.portfolio.com/interactive-features/2008/06/Who-Killed-The-Economy
So where the blame is properly assign? To Sir Alan Greenspan - same Greenspan, who drove the rates from 6-7% down to almost zero. Same person who made money "free"
Wall Street applaud him before, they proclaim his to be the God, the Savior of US economy. Btw, same story for Greenspan successor – Dr.Bernanke.
Sure the boom phase was pleasant - everyone made money on the Street, all assets, including the small houses raised in price. People became rich. Everybody benefits. Nobody paid.
However, much like if you go to a restaurant, a moment come when the waiter comes with the bill. The bill comes as "the housing crunch".
The bill must be paid somehow. However, the people who proclaim Greenspan as god now do not want to pay.
The Main Street will pay as usual. They always do.
Credit Cards
This gonna be much much bigger than I expected.
Fed Accepting Comments On Proposed Credit Card Rules
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/328667659/fed-accepting-comments-on-proposed.html
Bank of America's Parking Meter Play
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/06/bank-of-americas-parking-meter-play.html
Your own bully pulpit
Consumers get rare chance to try to effect changes in credit-card rules
By Andrea Coombes, MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/consumers-get-rare-chance-effect/story.aspx?guid=%7B0508B5D0-A4CB-4139-B2F4-88D6664B35A2%7D&dist=msr_1
2008-07-04
Gold article from 2006
Reason to invest in gold and silver
http://www.1stmillionat33.com/2006/08/reasons-for-investing-in-gold-silver-market/
50,000,000,000
Zimbabwe
This chary does not show the inflation in Zimbabwe. It shows the single banknotes printed.
For example in 2006, they first print $1000 note, then they made $10,000, then $100,000.
Currently they have $50,000,000,000.
I agree is not same as Yougoslavian note of 500,000,000,000 dinars, but believe me soon they must print it.
Year | Date | Denomination |
---|---|---|
2006 | 1,000 | |
2006 | 10,000 | |
2006 | 100,000 | |
2007 | 1 FEB 2007 | 50,000 |
2007 | 1 JUL 2007 | 200,000 |
2007 | 20 JUL 2007 | 500,000 |
2007 | 20 DEC 2007 | 250,000 |
2007 | 31 DEC 2007 | 750,000 |
2008 | 1 JAN 2008 | 1,000,000 |
2008 | 1 JAN 2008 | 5,000,000 |
2008 | 1 JAN 2008 | 10,000,000 |
2008 | 2 APR 2008 | 25,000,000 |
2008 | 2 APR 2008 | 50,000,000 |
2008 | 2 MAY 2008 | 100,000,000 |
2008 | 2 MAY 2008 | 250,000,000 |
2008 | 2 MAY 2008 | 500,000,000 |
2008 | 2 MAY 2008 | 5,000,000,000 |
2008 | 2 MAY 2008 | 25,000,000,000 |
2008 | 2 MAY 2008 | 50,000,000,000 |
Cheap gold :)
http://www.kitco.com/ind/B_Hunt/jul022008.html
Gold / Oil relationship
2008-07-03
Today market action
I bought some more PBR @ 66.50 and 65.50. Bought some PWE too - price for me is not important there, PWE I intend to keep long time, however if price go back to 34 I will sell some.
Dow is positive for the day, thats why I now wondering may be this is not de-leveraging, but rather marker manipulation in front of 4th July. I am probably the last who will accept manipulation theory, however I don't see anything changed from 2-3 days ago:
- Is gold going up? YES. up for the week.
- Is oil going up? YES. up for the day.
- Is oil likely to go up? YES.
- Is oil demand will go up? Probably.
- Is peak oil here? Probably.
- Is dollar go down? NO, EUR/USD is up for the day with near 100 pips, but is down for the week.
- This one is cliché - do they stop suddenly print money :-) :-) :-)
Read this - this is the way you need to invest. You need to forget about day to day fluctuations. Technical analysis works if we have free market. Well we don't have free market at the moment.
One more cliché - Welcome to US(SR) !
BATS Trading system
We just added this box on the left menu for you, just over the oil prices.
ECB
By this reason, I am re-publishing a video with Alan Greenspan from the past March:
More articles
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/thursday-oil-market-round-up.html
Why the Gulf Is Switching to Coal
The Persian Gulf may be sitting atop massive oil reserves. But with prices for crude skyrocketing, it makes more sense to sell it than to burn it. Instead, the Gulf is turning to coal for its energy needs -- to the detriment of the climate. At the end of April, for example, the state-owned Oman Oil Company signed a memorandum of understanding with two Korean companies on the construction and operation of several coal-fired power plants. Dubai, for its part, is initially planning to build at least four large facilities with a cumulative output of 4,000 megawatts. Abu Dhabi also wants to get into the act. Even Egypt is thinking of constructing its first coal-fired plant on the shores of the Red Sea. As odd as the idea may seem, coal power in the gulf is just one more outcome of skyrocketing oil prices.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,563502,00.html
Merrill: GM bankruptcy 'possible'
General Motors will need to raise as much as $15bn in cash to shore up liquidity and bankruptcy is "not impossible" if the US auto market continues to slump, Merrill Lynch said, reports Reuters. Other analysts have suggested GM, whose shares fell to a new 54-year low on Wednesday, needs to raise funds to weather the downturn in the US auto market through 2009. But Merrill's estimate of GM's financing needs is the highest yet. It also carried the most stark warning of the bankruptcy risk for the largest US automaker. Merrill analyst John Murphy cut GM to "underperform" from "buy" and lowered his price target to $7 from $28. Shares fell as much as 11% to $10.50 in Wednesday's trading as the cost to insure GM's debt rose.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/07/03/14272/merrill-gm-bankruptcy-possible/
Stockexchange transactions from yesterday
I loaded following stocks:
MFN @ 11 - hey this was market bottom :)
PWE @ 33.70 - current price 33.06, but we will get nice dividend there.
PBR - several buys @ 69.80 - 67.80
With dollar depretiating, and oil and gold go up, I believe those were very good buys. We will see.
I will "de-leverage" some PBR if we see 71.00 next 2-3 days. MFN will lower my expectation too, because now I have bigger possition than I intended to have, but there probably will sell everything at once.
Anyway, the main problem I see is - if sold those, what shall I do with those USD i will get in return? Convert to EUR? No thanks, EUR is same story. May be I will became fan of CHF :-)
Readings...
http://boombustblog.com/component/option,com_myblog/show,Im-taking-a-closer-look-at-the-Ibanks-the-Golden-Boys-inlcuded.html/Itemid,20/
(Just see the leverage!!!)
Bloomberg explains why regional bank credit is drying up
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/bloomberg-explains-why-regional-bank.html
Charts in the Babson Style for Midweek 2 July 2008
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-in-babson-style-for-midweek-2.html
(Nice Dow chart)
AirTran Asks Employees To Take "Temporary" Pay Cut
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/325516855/airtran-asks-employees-to-take.html
Eurozone Manufacturing Contracts
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/324984313/eurozone-manufacturing-contracts.html
The simple truth about hyper-inflation
http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/07/02/the-simple-truth-about-hyper-inflation/
2008-07-02
Don Harrold
Another conspirative theory by Don Harrold, involving the panic of 1907
Eh, Zimbabwe :)
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/324601153/inflation-in-zimbabwe-hits-4-million.html
2008-07-01
Dow / Gold ratio
AT&T to sell iPhone without contract for $400 more
Two new models of iPhones go on sale July 11 for $199 and $299, depending on the amount of memory, with two-year AT&T contracts. The no-contract versions will cost $599 and $699 and will be sold sometime "in the future," AT&T said.
MFN
Readings + SEO :)
by Mike Shedlock
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10652.htm
K-wave: The seasons
http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/06/30/k-wave-the-seasons/
Improved Adobe (Macromedia) Flash indexing
from Official Google Webmaster Central Blog
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/amDG/~3/323766032/improved-flash-indexing.html