Many analysts believe EUR should fall now again, before the final raise to 1.36-1.40.
Generally I do not see this possibility, but lets see this week view.
I. Wedge watch in USD index.
We will begin with the weekly USD index chart. USD began to fall to the support. There are still much more to go until level of 81.
Daily USD index chart, show that actually US is in upside channel (brown), and is close to the support level. It is possible USD to bounce from the support (brown), and to raise to the 83 level again, where the resistance from the wedge is (blue). After then the big fall of USD may start.
This is just a possibility. In any case, the USD will fall soon or later. Time frame - 1-2 mo.
II. Triangle watch in EUR/USD.
Now, EUR/USD. 2 days chart.
We have a triangle, made from long term support (not shown, but is from 1 week EUR/USD chart). We are on the top (resistance) on the triangle. It must be broken now, or next time around.
In case is broken now, a move to 1.3660 will follow, and then to 1.40... who knows :)
In case is not broken, a fall to ~1.33, which will be good entering point, and then the raise to 1.3660 will begin.
8 hour chart show that the raise of EUR/USD may continue a little bit, but we spoke for 1.3490. Do not misunderstood - the fall will probably come, do not buy EUR/USD. In case you have open position, a floating stop will be good for you.
Finally a 30 min chart.
I added this in order to study the mid-day fall to 1.3420, and the recovery after that. I was about to buy there, but I thought a more downsize will come. Anyway, the resistance on 1.3466 worked, so the recovery were to the same place where mid-day high was.
We need to watch how the EUR/USD will open Monday.
III. Summary.
Technical picture suggest USD will raise to ~1.33 , but not that much, and after that a sharp fall will occur to 1.3660.
I will *NOT* short EUR.
I do not feel well when I do that and next day Helicopter Ben print some new money :)
Happy week and good trading :-)
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