NMMM Finance Notes: 2009-04

2009-04-30

Bulgarian post

Българска банка за развитие - фактите говорят
http://ikonomika.org/?p=2366

Туризмът отвръща на кризата
Автор: Зорница Манолова
http://ime.bg/bg/articles/turizmyt-otwryshta-na-krizata/

Защо Германия изостана в битката за колите на бъдещето
http://e-vestnik.bg/6104

Readings

A little HUI micro-management (60 min. chart)
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/V9Z7rwGjIb4/little-hui-micro-management-60-min.html

Deflation? You're joking!
http://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2009/04/deflation-youre-joking.html
posting because a chart from Zeal...

At last, China announces it's been buying Gold
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/-qvx8YkG1D0/at-last-china-announces-its-been-buying.html

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/04/thursday-oil-market-round-up_30.html

Forex Fridays
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/04/forex-fridays_24.html
USD, old post, but long term

Jim Rogers on Swine Flu/Commodities
http://www.thefinancialtube.com/video/3173/Jim-Rogers-on-Swine-FluCommodities
video

Peter Schiff video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1X7TfRGY5Zk&feature=player_embedded
video in NYC

Gold, Silver, USD Market Update
by Clive Maund
http://www.safehaven.com/article-13198.htm
and
http://www.safehaven.com/article-13197.htm

Icelanders have NOT voted for EU membership
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/04/27/icelanders_have_not_voted_for_eu_membership

2009-04-29

Gold, Silver - Important Alert!

Nice charts of Gold:USBond, HUI:Gold, Gold:SPX
http://www.kitco.com/ind/degraaf/apr232009.html

Minefinders One2One Investor Presentation

Minefinders (MFN:AMEX) One2One Investor Presentation,
22 April 2009
Click the link to get the PDF file:
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/genera/files/companies/minefinders_compressed_20090422compatibility_mode.pdf

2009-04-24

Korekom note

I am posting this because of following article:

And then there's Zimbabwe - Part 64
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/04/and-then-theres-zimbabwe-part-64.html

I am promising to write about it tomorrow. If you can't wait, you can read this :-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corecom

BON(D) note with face value of 1 BGL

BON(D) note with face value of 2 BGL

RXR.V update

Some time ago, I wrote
Posibility for speculative arbitrage with Penn West

Here you are updated calculation:

RXR.V     =  1.63 CAD x 8   = 13.04 CAD
PWT-UN.TO = 13.39 CAD + div = 13.01 CAD
                             -------
                 Difference: ~ 0.23%

This means that at the moment the speculation is not very good. I believe is because Penn West cut the dividend, and also the possibility of the buy deal is much greater than month ago.

Anyway, will I'm keep watching it :-)

Readings

Gold stocks vs. broad stocks
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/z2mw1mft2Gk/gold-stock-vs-broad-stocks.html

Bob Geldof urges IMF to divert cash to Africa from sale of gold reserves
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/23/bob-geldof-imf-gold-africa
HUI:SPX

Hotel Occupancy Off 11%
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/-j6_abqDrqc/hotel-occupancy-off-11.html

Freddie Mac CFO Found Dead
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/IQ19agpJcBw/freddie-mac-cfo-found-dead.html

And then there's Zimbabwe - Part 64
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/04/and-then-theres-zimbabwe-part-64.html
Wonderful post :-)

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/2009/04/23/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-106/
double bottom

How low can Dubai property prices go?
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/04/22/how-low-can-dubai-property-prices-go/
70% down

In Bulgarian

Краят на митовете за АЕЦ “Белене”
http://ikonomika.org/?p=2333

2009-04-22

US Bank failures - statistical information

Before an year, I wrote this:
US Stock market / Gold cycles and bank failures 1928 - 2024
http://www.novini.net/2008/07/us-stock-market-gold-cycles-and-bank.html

...and before couple of months I wrote this:
US Bank failures - statistical information
http://nmmmnu.blogspot.com/2008/08/us-bank-failures-statistical.html
Now I am updating it...

Official information is here:
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

Now breakdown by year:

Year        Failures
2000        2
2001        4
2002       12          <- dot com?
2003        3
2004        4
2005        0
2006        0
2007        3
2008       26          <- subprime
2009       25

Peaks:

2002 - probably echo from dot com bubble?
2008 - subprime mess.

Note there are no bank failures in 2005 and 2006

Now chart:

Debt as percent of GDP

The strangest thing is that in year 2000, the chart shows level over the high level from the depression in 1930's.

Of cource the level in 2008 - 2009 - I have no comment for it - unbelievable.

I have read that similar levels were reached in 1986 - 1988 in Bulgaria, right before fall of Socialism - however I have no way to check it.

2009-04-21

Readings

Huey, doing the expected
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/Meuab283im4/huey-doing-expected.html

SPX, 60 minute view
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/91cbWITdGOU/spx-60-minute-view.html
upsa, the wedge

Just a bunch of lines on a chart?
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/BppSVIQLpfk/just-bunch-of-lines-on-chart.html
HUI

Dubai heading for $100bn debt
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/04/21/dubai-heading-for-100bn-debt/

Trichet should resign
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/fubQDoS3BUU/trichet-should-resign.html
Here I do not agree. I believe USD is worse

Honest Money Gold and Silver Report: Market Wrap
by Douglas V. Gnazzo
http://www.safehaven.com/article-13140.htm

IMF gold sale:

The Gordon Brown Indicator Flashes Buy Signal (for Gold)
http://trendsman.com/2009/04/21/the-gordon-brown-indicator-flashes-buy-signal-for-gold/
IMF gold sale and gold price.

Jim Rogers, gold, inflation and the dollar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGhKN5ZRqS0&feature=player_embedded
videointerview, IMF too

IMF Gold Sales Not A Factor In Gold’s Price
http://174.133.72.211/2009/04/21/imf-gold-sales-not-a-factor-in-gold%e2%80%99s-price/
Q&A for IMF by Jim Sinclair

EU:

Switzerland! Don't join the EU!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/04/20/switzerland_dont_join_the_eu

BG:

Full circle - Pramod Mittal not giving up on Kremikovtzi
http://sofiaecho.com/2009/04/21/708224_full-circle-pramod-mittal-not-giving-up-on-kremikovtzi/bulletin

European Commission proposes five billion euro assistance for Romania
http://sofiaecho.com/2009/04/21/708274_european-commission-proposes-five-billion-euro-assistance-for-romania/bulletin

2009-04-20

India and China want IMF to sell its $100b gold

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/news/india-and-china-want-imf-sell-its-100b-gold-897

2009-04-18

Inflation and the Dollar's crash

Readings

Another screaming copper has topped signal
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/7meeZ-rNRKQ/another-screaming-copper-has-topped.html

Euro
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/Ee9FTUfEiiA/euro.html

A Copper Standard?
http://trendsman.com/2009/04/16/a-copper-standard/
about China, from Telegraph.co.uk

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/04/thursday-oil-market-round-up_16.html

Wednesday Commodities Round-Up
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/04/wednesday-commodities-round-up_15.html
CRB

World:

Singapore GDP may drop 10 per cent as global trade slumps
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/04/16/singapore-gdp-may-drop-10-per-cent-as-global-trade-slumps/

In Bulgarian:

Полша и МВФ / Poland and IMF
http://ikonomika.org/?p=2312

Foreign investments in BG FEB.2009
http://ikonomika.org/?p=2308

2007 = 379.80 M EUR
2008 = 432.30 M EUR
2009 = 433.20 M EUR (revised)

Борим безработицата с мостове до Сицилия...
http://ime.bg/bg/articles/borim-bezraboticata-s-mostowe-do-siciliq/

Off-topic In Bulgarian:

Нещо тиктака в главата на прокурора на Стависки, та се чува в цяла Европа
http://e-vestnik.bg/6038

"ВИП Брадър 3" се оказа милосърдие в полза на мобилните оператори и държавата
http://e-vestnik.bg/6037

Ще се чукаме с Обама
http://ruslantrad.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/obama-chukane/

2009-04-16

Gold charts

Reprinting two charts from Doug Gnazzo

2009-04-15

Links

Gold: The Crowd’s Confusion
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/04/14/gold-the-crowds-confusion/

Jim Rogers on his new book
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/04/14/jim-rogers-on-his-new-book/
video

Columbia Professor Faints During Live Glenn Beck Show
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxPF10rUHXw
Bond bubble explained

2009-04-14

Readings

Soros on gold
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/226767/Soros-Says-Fed-in-a-Bind-Beware-Stagflation-Bursting-of-Bond-Bubble?tickers=dia,spy,GDX,GLD,TLT,TLB,TIP
video

The 5 Best Ways to Invest in Gold
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/the-5-best-ways-to-invest-in-gold/

Federal Deficit sets March Record, $192 Billion
http://trendsman.com/2009/04/10/federal-deficit-sets-march-record-192-billion/

Goldman Sachs Releases Earnings After Hours
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/YM4Gfl_Mj-k/goldman-sachs-releases-earnings-after.html

G7 Industrial Production Crashing
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/M_cCoHNoPwA/g7-industrial-production-crashing.html

Alan Greenspan on the gold standard
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5MVsm2cpc0&feature=player_embedded
(old video)

Is A $10 Billion Bailout Enough To Save Dubai?
http://www.luxist.com/2009/02/23/is-a-10-billion-bailout-enough-to-save-dubai?icid=sphere_wpcom_inline

Zimbabwe dollar officially disappears
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/FEf7S2wabTw/zimbabwe-dollar-officially-disappears.html
Another currency was destroyed

US dollar Collapse: Bearish flag weekly.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2009/04/us-dollar-collapse-bearish-flag-weekly.html
Flag in USD

Forex Fridays
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/04/forex-fridays_10.html
and he suggests double top in USD

Uncle Jay explains ... socialism
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7jbgxd6H5c&feature=player_embedded
video

2009-04-10

Russian post :-)

Това е репринт на една песен на Висоцки,
както добре се вижда той е предвидил Китайската експанзия
още преди 20-30 години :-)

Есть на земле предостаточно рас,
Просто цветная палитра,
Воздуха каждый вдыхает за раз
Два с половиною литра.

Если так дальше, так полный привет,
Скоро конец нашей эры,
Эти китайцы за несколько лет
Землю лишат атмосферы.

Сон мне тут снился неделю подряд,
Сон с пробужденьем кошмарным,
Будто я в дом, а на кухне сидят
Мао Цзедун с Линем Бяо.

И разделился наш маленький шар
На три огромные части,
Их - миллиард, нас - миллиард,
А остальное - китайцы.

И что подают мне какой-то листок,
На, мол, подписывай, ну же.
Очень нам нужен ваш Дальний Восток,
Ах, как ужасно нам нужен.

Только об этом о сне вспоминал,
Только о нем я и думал,
Я сослуживца недавно назвал
Мао, простите, Цзедуном.

Но вскорости мы на Луну полетим,
Что нам с Америкой драться,
Левую нам, правую им,
А остальное - китайцам.

Gold - tick tock... tick tock... tick
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/crzxYxb8aH4/gold-tick-tock-tick-tock-tick.html

Gold - parameters pretty well defined
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/iS4zQtxIWGk/gold-parameters-pretty-well-defined.html

Gold and the Dow - chart
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Bearwatch/~3/copvVmLiIjI/gold-and-dow-chart.html
both adjusted for CPI

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/04/09/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-100/

China: Record Auto Sales, Now Number 1 Auto Market
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/Bd5pqN9AmDg/china-record-auto-sales-now-1-auto.html

Hotel Occupancy: RevPAR off 18%
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/gzc_vfY_0Ac/hotel-occupancy-revpar-off-18.html

Dr Marc Faber explains the market correction
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/04/09/dr-marc-faber-explains-the-market-correction/
Video

UK:

Thanks Gordon
http://anti-citizen-one.blogspot.com/2009/04/thanks-gordon.html

FUN:

Dramatisations of Deflation
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/trendandvalue/~3/7MWfxFAFuzQ/dramatisations-of-deflation.html

BG:

Професор Юлиан Вучков в Горещо :-)
http://blog.ju-lian.info/%d0%bf%d1%80%d0%be%d1%84%d0%b5%d1%81%d0%be%d1%80-%d1%8e%d0%bb%d0%b8%d0%b0%d0%bd-%d0%b2%d1%83%d1%87%d0%ba%d0%be%d0%b2-%d0%b2-%d0%b3%d0%be%d1%80%d0%b5%d1%89%d0%be/

2009-04-08

Minefinders reports first quarter production results

...
The Company produced approximately 14,169 ounces of gold and 282,429 ounces of silver in the first quarter of 2009, its first full quarter of pre-commercial operations. Pre-commercial production of gold and silver at the Company’s Dolores Mine in Mexico commenced in November 2008.
Metal production has continued to escalate as the Dolores Mine progresses to commercial production. Gold production increased to approximately 6,426 ounces in March 2009 from 5,089 ounces in February. Silver production increased to approximately 121,091 ounces in March 2009 from 111,010 ounces in February. With more than five months since the start of leaching operations, gold and silver recovery rates are exceeding expectations. Metal production is expected to continue to increase through the course of the second quarter as the volume of ore under leach and time under leach increases.
...

Readings

HUI - Daily status
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/sSDxqoYSLhs/hui-daily-status.html

Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR)
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/xx0vxHTqpEY/gold-silver-ratio-gsr.html

US Dollar Weekly Chart with Commitments of Traders
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/-d5A5cwJXcs/us-dollar-weekly-chart-with-commitments.html

The European banking system
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/04/european-banking-system.html
Caricature :-)

2009-04-06

Readings

The truth will out: it WAS fraud
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Bearwatch/~3/cVpE-YdDD9U/truth-will-out-it-was-fraud.html

It's gold Jerry... GOLD!
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/TK15Etyc3So/its-gold-jerry-gold.html

Videos:

Jim Rogers - Go Get yourself a Tractor :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgxxD7GGddM&feature=player_embedded
Video from 1st Apr 2009

Obama' speach in Prag.
http://e-vestnik.bg/5953
In Bulgarian, but videos are in English.

In Bulgarian

Финансисти против поредната идея за махане на борда
http://www.dnevnik.bg/pazari/finansi/2009/03/31/698272_finansisti_protiv_porednata_ideia_za_mahane_na_borda/

За първи път в своята история БНБ отваря вратите си за свободен достъп на граждани по случай 130 години от основаването на институцията
http://www.bnb.bg/bnb/home.nsf/vWebPagesByADDateBG/66EECB3619B56D29C225758F0030C748?OpenDocument&BG
На 11 и 12 април от 8.30 до 17.00 часа гостите ще могат да разгледат залата на Управителния съвет и кабинета на управителя на БНБ, да се снимат на сувенирна банкнота със своя лик и собственоръчно да си отсекат сувенирна монета.

Woopra е по-добър от Google Analytics по отношение на бързина в реално време
http://ruslantrad.wordpress.com/2009/04/03/woopra/
Internet technology post