2007-04-29

Last week, was wery productive on EUR/USD trading. We had aboot 60% profit on latest move. We even, managed to catch the small pullback, and to earn additional 10%, only because we wanted to close all positions before trading is over at Friday @ 24:00.

However, something still is developing, I still believe we experience EUR bubble.

I do not want to say that USA have lot of economical problems, and EU do not. I am not bullish on USD in long term, but technicaly, the situation is very interesting.

First, the USD index:
From here, the dollar have one way - up. This is because of couple of reasons -


  1. Strong support @ ~80.
  2. Strong support @ bottom triangle/wedge line.
  3. If this is wedge, then it must be broken on the top.
  4. if dollar fall now, nothing can't help it - this is not technical, nor fundamental, but if this happen, we need to prepare for very big shift in monetary and currency situation. In this case probably EUR or GPB will take over as new international currency.




Next chart shows 1 week chart (1 week candles)

I did not post this chart for long time ago, but I want to show same divergence as on USD chart. We are on the top of the channel. Purple line may be not drawn correct, but anyway, we are on the top. Also we are on same place where Dec.2004-Jan.2005, correction is a must. Correction price objective - 1.31, but because support is raising, real objective will be probably 1.32-1.33, depending when it will happen.



Now 1 day chart:
Strange channel - Support on the bottom, second short term support. Resistance on the top. Price is trading up-down all the time between 1.3580 - 1.3680, see 30 min chart at the end. Price objective here - 1.3250



Now 4 hours chart:
I prefere this chart to buy/sell. Also here we may draw trend lines more precisely for short-term. Well what shall I say? It's a mess. The action is either reaction after some fund dumped their EURos, or this was a correction. In both cases, wait and watch.



Finaly, a 30 min chart of latest pullback and then bounce.
something not making sence, right? :-)




Trade advice (educational purposes only)

Stay aside, waith, watch. Begin buying at 1.3580, but only if everithing looks good till then.

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