GBP/USD H&S forming

On 4 h GBP/USD chart a H&S may be forming.

Readings

Sterling poised for another collapse?
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/05/28/sterling-poised-for-another-collapse

FDIC Bank Failures: By the Numbers
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/18BDM8eDnZc/fdic-bank-failures-by-numbers.html

Important Support/Resistance
http://martinmarketreport.blogspot.com/2009/05/important-supportresistance.html

Home sales and inventory both rise
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/05/home-sales-and-inventory-both-rise.html

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/2009/05/27/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-123/

John Paulson massively increases his gold position
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/wP9u0hzEfLA/john-paulson-massively-increases-his.html

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): 30.37% of portfolio (position: 1)
Gold Miners ETF (GDX): 6.81% of portfolio (position: 5)
Kinross Gold (KGC): 5.87% of portfolio (position: 6)
Gold Fields (GFI): 2.21% of portfolio (position: 11)

Readings

Top news

Swiss minister rejects U.S. demand for UBS data: report
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5261NG20090308

"Normal" news:

USD at critical support
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/wQqIyWDayLc/usd-at-critical-support.html

FDIC Warns of Bank Deposit Insurance Fund Failure
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/03/fdic-warns-of-bank-deposit-insurance.html

Gold/Silver Mining Costs Falling on Two Fronts
http://trendsman.com/2009/03/07/goldsilver-mining-costs-falling-on-two-fronts/
It needs black gold to mining gold

Gold, $HUI Looking Good
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/ZYdtK2tRQlQ/gold-hui-looking-good.html

Dubai Eye radio interview with Peter Cooper
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/03/09/dubai-eye-radio-interview-with-peter-cooper/
Audio Interview

Has Nouriel Roubini got it right about the recession?
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/03/08/has-nouriel-roubini-got-it-right-about-the-recession/
see my comment at the end too ;-)

White Gold: The gas engine made petroleum the world's biggest commodity. The electric car could do the same for Lithium.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2009/03/white-gold-gas-engine-made-petroleum.html

Interesting:

The market crash in Money Magazine covers
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/03/market-crash-in-money-magazine-covers.html

EU and UK:

British Airways Cut to "Junk"
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/03/british-airways-cut-to-junk.html

Run on UK sees foreign investors pull $1 trillion out of the City
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/03/rekjavik-on-thames-run-on-british-pound.html

GBP to be devalued by 50%-70% within next 6-12 months
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/KwbPL2fcM3Y/gbp-to-be-devalued-by-50-within-next-6.html

Readings

Scenario #2 as applied to stock market
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/FAH6K_CeiGk/scenario-2-as-applied-to-stock-market.html

Most Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Treasuries for Their National Reserves
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/03/leading-chinese-economists-favor-gold.html

The Bank of England Begins Monetization in Earnest
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/03/bank-of-england-begins-monetization-in.html

Jim Rogers on Obama and the US dollar
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/03/05/jim-rogers-on-obama-and-the-us-dollar/
video

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/03/thursday-oil-market-round-up.html
he is more bullish now...

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/03/05/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-79/

Ratecuts all over the Europe

EU and UK cut base rates with 0.50%.

EU = from 2% to 1.5%
UK = from 1% to 0.5%

Update:
Looks like nobody saw the mistake here. I left old rates, and miss to put new one...

Readings

Ford Sales Decline 48%, Toyota 32%, Honda 21%, Nissan 35%
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/PYZbGd6em-o/ford-sales-decline-48-toyota-32-honda.html

GM Leads the Way with a 53% Sales Plunge
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/u0rv1XXGg3k/gm-leads-way-with-53-sales-plunge.html

$1 trillion Bailout for US public pension funds to come
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/YD_adUSMCpI/1-trillion-bailout-for-us-public.html

You Are Here
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/03/you-are-here.html
SPX

Jim Rogers Interview
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-u9gPykOkdA&

Jim Rogers on why US and UK bailouts will not work
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/03/04/jim-rogers-on-why-us-and-uk-bailouts-will-not-work/
30 min interview

Scenario #2 illustrated
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/4yBK6ebKgtQ/scenario-2-illustrated.html
USD

And then there is old lumpy
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/dZUGtzfHpPo/and-then-there-old-lumpy.html

GBP arbitrage opportunities gone, replaced by very high inflation
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/IXrqiD9ufAk/gbp-arbitrage-opportunities-gone.html

Rates

UK rates down @ 1%

EU rates remain @ 2%

Has anyone tell me why pound raises against the dollar with 1.5 p?!?!?

Gold breaks out :)

Gold just hit *near* all time high in EURO (see $GOLD:$XEU in stockcharts), also hit all time high in GBP.

Second one I can not confirm because I do not know stockcharts.com code for GBP.

Also the triangle is broken now :-) , we may expect now gold to test in (~$880) and then eventual raise to 1040 is on the way.

Readings

Russia and crysis
In Bulgarian
http://ikonomika.org/?p=1910
Original in English
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12856506

BOJ Considers Buying Corporate Bonds
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/75XpD99X5NE/boj-considers-buying-corporate-bonds.html

Jim Rogers: "The UK is finished"
from Reality Lenses by pej
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/518095904/jim-rogers-uk-is-finished.html

Pound Sinks As Britain Teeters On Edge Of Bankruptcy
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/519197501/pound-sinks-as-britain-teeters-on-edge.html

Momentous Day
from Red-Hot Resources by Sean Brodrick
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2009/01/momentous-day.html
Misc news from yesterday

Gold Making Lower Highs and Lower Lows
from The Martin Market Report by Martin
http://martinmarketreport.blogspot.com/2009/01/gold-making-lower-highs-and-lower-lows.html

Yellow Gold vs Crude Black Gold, Who's Ready to Rally
by Chris Vermeulen
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12380.htm

Gold/Silver/USD Market Update
by Clive Maund
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12379.htm
...and...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12378.htm
H&S bottom in Gold, but H&S top in Silver

Coordinated rate cut...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081106/eu_europe_interest_rates.html
ECB - 0.5% to 3.25%
BOE - 1.5% to 3.00% - wtf !!?@?#?#@?!?#
Swiss - 0.5% to 2.00%

Deflation anyone?

2 articles from Dollar Daze

"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero."
(Voltaire, 1694-1778)

Sinking Currencies
by Mike Hewitt
http://www.dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00402

Fate of Paper Money
By Mike Hewitt
http://www.dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00405

Interest rates in EU an UK

Interest rates in EU an UK unchanged.

BG interest rate were hiked.

BoE's Gieve expects 'sharp rise' in UK inflation in coming months

This is so bearish for UK economy and bullish for the GBP :-)
See also red - what the idiots thinks...

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- LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Bank of England (BoE) deputy governor John Gieve warned of a 'sharp rise' in inflation in the UK over the coming months, complicating the job of rate-setters at a time when the credit crunch has diminished growth prospects.

In a speech to the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gieve said the big rise in recent months of world oil and food prices, amplified by the sharp fall in the pound, is coming through in food, petrol, gas and electricity prices.

'These are likely to raise our inflation rate well above target in the coming months at a time when short-term inflation expectations remain uncomfortably high,' he said.

Tuesday's figures showed the annual CPI inflation rate unchanged at 2.1 pct and still above the BoE's 2.0 pct target.

At the same time, growth is being undermined by the credit crunch, which under normal circumstances 'greatly strengthened' the case for the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to ease policy.

'These are testing times for the MPC,' said Gieve, who surprised sterling markets by voting for a reduction in borrowing costs in November, alongside arch-dove Danny Blanchflower -- a month before rates were actually reduced a quarter point to 5.50 pct.

The MPC is widely tipped to cut its benchmark Bank rate another quarter point in February to 5.25 pct.

'In reaching our decisions, the MPC always looks not just at the central projection for the economy but at the risks on either side. That will require not just difficult judgements but careful explanations in the months ahead,' said Gieve.

pan.pylas@thomson.com

pp/pp/am


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FED cuts...

Bernanke once again had anti-effect.

FED cuts:
0.25% from FED fund rate (called interest rate)
0.25% from FED discount rate (bank borrow from FED)

However the effect was anti-effect. USD rally against everything - EUR, GBP, CAD, Gold!?!?!

EUR/USD down to 1.46.60-90.

Stockmarket is down 1% (now is stabilized at ~ 0%)

Oil up.

GBP/JPY

As per old broken wedge, now first target is 222, then if not bounced, much lower...

More dodgy business with GBP/JPY

A wedge is broken, on the correct side.
Currently we are on the parallel channel, which may be will be broken too.
From the other side, the JPY falling against everything,
so the rally in GBP is not a surprise.

Dodgy business with GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 week chart:
H&S formation still here, however due to high volatility and extremly high carry-trade interest (paid 70 EUR for 150K per day last week) - do not enter short.

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GBP/JPY 4h chart:

a wedge is formed, also is broken to the "correct" side. Now - 237 - 238 is the target. Once again - do not trade it, do not trade it, do not trade it :)

EUR/USD view for week NOV/19/2007

Not much things changed since last week...

I. Important news from the week:

1. Gold correcting ($785)

2. Market correcting, while JPY raise (unwinding carry trade).

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II. As I wrote before:

FED blew it!!! They totally destroyed the dollar in long term. I think they will inflate now, and stock market will go higher and higher, but only in nominal terms.

GOT GOLD :-)

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III. The parallel uptrend (old wedge):

EUR/USD 1 week chart:
No change, price is inside the channel, probably will go down. In case it go up, it will not show some significant new high.

EUR/USD 4 hours chart:
For the moment this is just a potential H&S, but we will see.

EUR/USD 1 hours chart:
Here is the "speculative" chart. This chart was done Friday.

Blue channel down - target is 1.46, because there we have longer term support (pink), then up.

Currently EUR/USD open up, with 20 pips gap. It is above the channel, but I think soon it will fell inside. I am still unsure if I will trade this gap. Better wait 1.46 and go long

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IV. GBP/JPY H&S:

GBP/JPY 1 week chart:
No chart, but we still have huge H&S formation. Target is under 200.

Do not trade GBP/JPY. It is extremely volatile.

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V. Summary:

I can say absolutely the same as previous week:

Generally USD will rise / NEUTRAL now, EUR to fall, but play carefully.

There is one very important thing that helping USD - everybody is against it, even supermodels like Gisele who demanded her contract to be in EUR :-)

Remember EUR is just a worthless paper as the USD is. Eurozone has own problems too. The only reason EUR go up against the USD is because Eurozone and ECB do not inflate as much as FED. Or may be they do now. Who knows. The inflation we see now, is actually from money supply increased 6 mo ago. So we do not know if ECB printing money or not.

There is only one real currency and is called GOLD. As you can see, gold rising against all currencies, not only against the USD. This may mean only one thing - inflation rising. Actually some people believes gold is bubble, but this is wrong opinion (will explain why I thing that some other time).

Happy week and trade!!!

GBP/JPY

I will never ever trade this again,
a stupid currency vs yet another stupid currency.
Every day you may expect 100 pips up, then 200 down, then another 300 up :)

Currensies

EUR/USD - down for now, will see how much, probably 1.45.90.
But I think we will need to wait for US data in couple of hours.

GBP/JPY - down, but hit our stop, so we end up to only 70 EUR profit
three days lost... whatever, at least is profit :)