NMMM Finance Notes: 2009-02

2009-02-27

Europe's Crisis: Much Bigger Than Subprime, Worse Than U.S.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/195065/Europe

I did not know we have crysis here... :-)

This is more for UK, Poland and their zlota, Austria and Switzerland.

For Bulgarian readers:

Bulgarian Lev is fixed to the EUR. So we will not suffer more than EU. The movie is for Poland or Romania where the currency *is* floating. Romanian Leia is not 25% cheaper to the EUR.

Realestate - I said realestate will crash long time ago. However I do not believe the realestate to fall more than 20-30% (from top to the bottom), because the pricese are not balooned enought. Sure 30% is too much if you pay mortgage.

About banks here - we do not have Bulgarian banks, except probably PIB. The private sources in Bulbank for example told me, that the "mother" bank (Unicredit) stops support Bulgarian branche.

I do not know what the banks will do.

Finally the EUR - I believe ECB will print, not as crazy as FED (USD), so we will see inflation soon or later. However, it is VERY important what ECB will decide to do if some country "fell in bankrupsy". ECB may decide *not* to do anything, because EU is bunch of countries and ECB is not Austrian Central Bank so ECB is not obligated to help any country.

To understand this last centence, here you are the parallel with USA - (USA is a country. FED is USA Central bank. US states are like districts. So in USA, FED is obligated to "help" USA, so they will in most cases help the single state as well.

Thoughts...

In yesterday news I read:

President Obama on Thursday pulled back the curtain on his first detailed vision of the federal budget for the next 10 years. His outline includes an ambitious plan to reform health care, half of which would be paid for in great part by increasing the tax bite on high-income Americans. Obama has said repeatedly that his first fiscal plan would have a two-pronged mission: to reduce the $1 trillion-plus deficit and make big investments in the future

The quote again: to reform health care, half of which would be paid for in great part by increasing the tax bite on high-income Americans

My comment: Exactly those high-income Americans pay most of the taxes. Now may be, just may be, they will began to "shrink" their businesses (I prefere not to use word "contract"), and finally to pay less taxes.

Here another one:

President Barack Obama is anticipating a new $750 billion bank bailout this year, more than doubling the direct infusion of taxpayer money into the reeling financial sector

My comment: Auch!!!

Readings

Fannie Mae: $25.2 Billion Loss
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/HsYuQ4uNKto/fannie-mae-252-billion-loss.html
Fannie Mae reported a loss of $25.2 billion ... in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with a third-quarter 2008 loss of $29.0 billion ...

FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increases Sharply in Q4
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/Yufub9PVMp4/fdic-number-of-problem-banks-increases.html

Obama Budget: $250 Billion for TARP II
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/YG-uDKExxFQ/obama-budget-250-billion-for-tarp-ii.html

Obama Begins to Nationalize Healthcare: Wall Street Shocked, Shocked!
http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2009/02/obama-begins-to-nationalize-healthcare.html

Dear Mr. President, With All Due Respect ....
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/547434250/dear-mr-president-with-all-due-respect.html

Jim Rogers interview
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xAeEJIsci0&eurl=http://www.google.com/reader/view/&feature=player_embedded
I guess he is in India...

US Dollar Collapse: Official: Budget projects $1.75 trillion deficit.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-dollar-collapse-official-budget.html

Forex Fridays
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/02/forex-fridays_27.html
USD double top...

Are Germans giving up on the euro
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/02/26/are_germans_giving_up_on_the_euro
did not read this.

2009-02-26

Bulgarian post: Roubini is not right

Рубини не е прав!
Автор: Петър Ганев
Дата: 25.02.2009 година
http://ime.bg/bg/articles/rubini-ne-e-praw/
Винаги съм твърдял същото...

Traders Report on Gold, Silver & Oil

by Chris Vermeulen
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/vermeulen/2009/0225.html

2009-02-25

The 2009 Global Metals and Mining Conference - day 2

You need to register, then you can listen to it online.

Second day is MP3 ready now...

http://audability.com/AudabilityAdmin/Clients/BMO/10679_223200980000AM/lobby.aspx?Event_ID=679

from second day interesting companies for me are:

Yamana
AEM
PAAS
HL
Aurizon Mines
Minefinders

and probably:

Silver Wheaton
Eldorado Gold
Golden Star Resources
Alamos Gold

Readings

Consumer confidence plunges to lowest level ever
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2009/02/consumer-confidence-plunges-to-lowest.html

Four Papa Bear Markets Compared
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/02/four-papa-bear-markets-compared.html

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/02/24/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-72/

Off topic, but interesting :-)

How much do you know about gold?
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/02/how-much-do-you-know-about-gold.html
My score is 12

2009-02-24

The 2009 Global Metals and Mining Conference

You need to register, then you can listen to it online.

http://audability.com/AudabilityAdmin/Clients/BMO/10679_223200980000AM/lobby.aspx?Event_ID=679

from first day interesting companies for me are:

Goldcorp
Kinross Gold
IAMGOLD
Gammon Gold

and probably:

Barrick Gold
Newmont Mining
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold

Readings

Yousa! Eight thousand tonnes!
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/02/yousa-eight-thousand-tonnes.html
SLV

Party Like It's ... 1997
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/9Wb0peKdwuk/party-like-its-1997.html

Minera Andes MAI.to Rob McEwen becomes Executive Chairman of Minera Andes - Two new directors appointed.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2009/02/minera-andes-maito-rob-mcewen-becomes.html

AmEx paying card holders to close their accounts
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AmEx-paying-card-holders-to-rb-14442536.html

Gold: More Strength on the Way
by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12677.htm

Videos:

Taleb Says U.S. Banking System Is 'Designed to Blow Up'
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Taleb%20Says%20U.S.%20Banking%20System%20Is%20%60Designed%20to%20Blow%20Up'%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vmMd4PSxEKeE.asf

Uncle Jay
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpwX_HO5dP4&feature=player_embedded

Ron Paul
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5lb0l3sYBo&feature=player_embedded
(didn't listen to it yet)

Off Topic:

EU wants to tap your Skype calls
http://webtapping.blogspot.com/2009/02/eu-wants-to-tap-your-skype-calls.html

In Bulgarian:

Какво става в АЕЦ "Козлодуй"? Защо медиите мълчат?
http://e-vestnik.bg/5668
Пак за АЕЦ-а...

2009-02-23

Dow / Gold ratio update

Dow just hit 7,114.78 USD

This level is unseen since 1997 or so.
US market unfortunately is poised for trading down, since there are no "clear" support @ lower levels.

Dow / Gold ratio = 7.18

Zimbabwe trade with gold now...

Is very sad.

BUT besides is sad, this give us one interesting conclusion.

It took several years until inflation in Zimbabwe to became hyperinflation.
Then it took some 4-5 years years before they to begin to use gold as currency.

One may ask if gold is the root of all evel?

Thoughts

I was guest in a friends family. The man working in a bank (I guess you can call him a banker). He recenly move his money in government bonds (which is unusual for Bulgaria), so we began a conversation for the eventual deflation or inflation in Bulgaria and in USA. His comment was

he - "How you can tell me that money supply in USA grows, when their staistics show lower CPI and PPI?"
me - "do you believe the data?"
he - "Yes, is official data"
me - "Have you ever hear or saw shadowstats.com website?"
he - "No, what is it"
me - "Is alternative measure of CPI, according Carter's staistical institute. Have you ever try to find oppinions if US CPI is correct or understated/overstated"
he - "No"
me - "Then why do you think is correct"
he - "Because is official".

Later I give him a chart of gold price from 1800 to 2000 year, and I understood that he do not understand what gold standard is - according to him gold standard is when you have commodity - gold, and gold price fluctuating against the currency, and central bank gives you gold according todays exchage rate.

Now I agree, that the situation is much more worse, than I anticipated, aslo obviously gold is not money.

* Red was corrected on 25.FEB

Readings

Dow downside targets
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/UefScWJvmoM/dow-downside-targets.html

US Dollar Weekly Chart with Commitments of Traders
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-dollar-weekly-chart-with-commitments_20.html

California shows how to beat the crisis
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/02/22/california-shows-how-to-beat-the-crisis/

Marc Faber on the Eastern European financial crisis
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/02/21/marc-faber-on-eastern-european-crisis/
video

Fannie and Freddie in deeper trouble: Asians want a free lunch sponsorized by the US tax payer
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/XxGKj-W75Bo/fannie-and-freddie-in-deeper-trouble.html

US Dollar Collapse - Green Fellow holds medicine from Depression Misery.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-dollar-collapse-green-fellow-holds.html

Off Topic:

Saving Canada's Internet
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKbPpizEDBM

2009-02-21

dow

Dow broke down...

2009-02-20

Dow / Gold ratio

Gold just hit 1,000.00 USD

Dow / Gold ratio = 7.30

2009-02-19

Readings

Give a Mouse a Cheese He'll Come back for Crackers and Wine
http://chrispycrunch.blogspot.com/2009/02/give-mouse-cheese-hell-come-back-for.html

Guardian TV report on Dubai
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/02/18/guardian-tv-report-on-dubai/

Jay Taylor on BNN
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip139230
Yamana, GoldCorp and other stocks

HUI - Gold Ratio (HGR) - current status
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/yRf7sWKhr34/hui-gold-ratio-hgr-current-status.html

Gold-Oil Ratio (GOR) using proxies GLD & USO
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/NhQOhn4JeGs/gold-oil-ratio-gor-using-proxies.html
I posted something similar the other day...

Thursday Oil Market Roundup
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/02/thursday-oil-market-roundup_19.html

Dr. Doom last interview...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7jsm9evM0A&feature=player_embedded

Airline news:

Emirates Airline adding 19 new aircraft
http://arabianmoney.net/2009/02/19/emirates-airline-adding-19-new-aircraft/

Off Topic:

Famed Social Sciences Author Jared Diamond Predicts 49 Percent Chance of Civilization Collapse
http://www.naturalnews.com/025662.html
Wow :-)

2009-02-18

Dow / Gold ratio

Dow / Gold ratio = 7.67

links

Long Term Dow Chart and Forecasts
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/02/long-term-dow-chart.html
wow!!! very nice pick.

Russia and China Sign Oil Deal for the Next Twenty Years
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/02/russia-and-china-sign-oil-deal-for-next.html

Are You Jessie Livermore?
http://martinmarketreport.blogspot.com/2009/02/are-you-jessie-livermore.html
DJ Transports

Yousa! One thousand tonnes in the trust!
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/02/yousa-one-thousand-tonnes.html
GLD

Ron Paul on stimulus
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W49LcbGoCwA&eurl=http://www.google.com/reader/view/&feature=player_embedded

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/02/17/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-68/
via Jim Sinclair

2009-02-17

Ratios

Dow / Gold ratio update

Dow / Gold ratio = 7.83

Lats time I checked was 8.98

Gartman Bullish On Gold

He´s really turned bullish on gold again, but tells us for the zillionth time he's not a gold bug.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vqS6T8keX00s.asf&vCat=/av&RND=153328246&A=
...or audio feed directly (not clickable - copy/paste) :
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vqS6T8keX00s.asf

(Thanks Ron - I guess I copy your post)

What's up with gold - one week later...

Week ago I wrote What's up with gold .
now is time to post an update.

Gold weekly - horizontal support/resistance

Here we have fibo levels and price do not YET broke previous high - 988 USD.
One note here - I always said previous high is ~960, because I never needed correct value, but this chart gives extreme maximum 988 USD.

So target now is 988 USD, then ~1,040 USD (will see correct value when time comes).

Gold weekly

Here we have not much change from previous report - What's up with gold .
However @ 988 we have the brown channel top. So as of previous chart $988 is good target.

Gold daily

Here we have confirnmation that the pink channel is not correct.

Brown lines show correct channel. Note there are 2 upper lines. I believe the thick line is correct one. However there is possibility thin line to be the one that is correct.

Targets here are 970 USD from the thin line and ~988 USD from thick line.

Alexa - Gold Mania Barometer

This is how much traffic website Kitco gets. I calculated it several days ago. We are at the red dot - 0.075 - traffic raise over May.2008 high, but is not something extraordinary.

Note this is traffic, so May.2008 high is not support or something :)

If you do not know what this is, please visit following link:
http://nmmmnu.blogspot.com/search/label/Gold%20mania%20barometer

Telegraph did it again...

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html
The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached acute danger point.

Gold in EUR

Gold in EUR at the moment is 770 EUR.
I can not say if this is all time high, but if is not, is close.

Readings

FRONTLINE: Inside the Meltdown
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/frontline-inside-meltdown.html
BSC videos

China warns the US - 2nd semi-official warning?
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/czaaThsfRjY/china-warns-us-2nd-semi-official.html
...and...
China warns the US - 1st semi-official warning?
http://realitylenses.blogspot.com/2008/08/china-warns-us-1st-semi-official.html

S&P 500 Cup With Handle Being Formed
http://martinmarketreport.blogspot.com/2009/02/s-500-cup-with-handle-being-formed.html
I must agree here, but also there is double top. Also, if SPX raise, this will be because of the inflation.

Platinum and Commodities Bubble, Deflationary Crash
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8765.html
Interesting, yet I do not agree with it. Platinuum was not a bubble, but supply problems

Minera Andes MAI.to fight for the control continued. MAI.to, TNR.v, CDNX
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2009/02/minera-andes-maito-fight-for-control.html

Can The Euro Survive?
by John Mauldin
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12500.htm

In Bulgarian:

Кои са добрите времена?
http://ikonomika.org/?p=2064
BG government bonds

Гледна точка
http://ikonomika.org/?p=2056
BGN and EUR

Yesterday readings

US Dollar Long Term Chart with Commitments of Traders
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-dollar-long-term-chart-with.html

World Oil Use in '09 to Fall by Most Since 1982: IEA
http://oildepletiondebate.blogspot.com/2009/02/world-oil-use-in-09-to-fall-by-most.html

Stimulus Package?
http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/2009/02/stimulus-package.html

Graphs: FDIC Bank Failures
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/graphs-fdic-bank-failures.html
...and...
Shameless self reprint :-) : US Stock market / Gold cycles and bank failures 1928 - 2024
http://www.novini.net/2008/07/us-stock-market-gold-cycles-and-bank.html

GM to U.S.: More Money or Bankruptcy
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/NHw-2jI593I/gm-to-us-more-money-or-bankruptcy.html

TNR Gold TNR.v - Solitario - Robert McEwen and Minera Andes MAI.to San Jose and Los Azules Full Story.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2009/02/tnr-gold-tnrv-solitario-robert-mcewen.html

Off topic:

Ah, Venecia :)
http://e-vestnik.bg/5607

In Bulgarian:

Убиват ли хуманитарните помощи?
http://kaka-cuuka.com/1095

2009-02-13

2009-02-12

Oil prices check

COIL0309 44.59
WTI0309 34.38

The divergence is huge. Reading is correct, because Bloombers show almost the same:

Dated Brent Spot 44.68
WTI Cushing Spot 34.78

Anyone know what the reason may be?

This could be manipulation, could something else. Those oil prices will lead to disaster.

Four takeover targets in gold mining

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090211.wminers0211/BNStory/energy/home
Yamana is one of the targets...

Black swan

The news just reported:

Two space satelits colided on top of Cyberia, chance this to happen was less 1:1,000,000

Readings

Symmetry; asymmetry
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/Bearwatch/~3/537873838/symmetry-asymmetry.html
China’s January surplus ($39.1b) is roughly the same size as the United States’ December deficit ($39.9b).
The old game continue... :-)

Let's illustrate the HUI target zone...
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/yQA3qze2NJ4/lets-illustrate-hui-target-zone.html
HUI

HUI locks and loads...
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/FVySq0SJ6Fg/hui-locks-and-loads.html
SLV and short SLV in case if you interested

10-year Treasury demand weak
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2009/02/10-year-treasury-demand-weak.html

The Stock Index - Gold Ratios
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/02/stock-index-gold-ratios.html
Dow/Gold ratio

Two Longer Term Charts: Gold and the SP 500
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/02/two-longer-term-charts-gold-and-sp-500.html
Gold and S&P must see.

Today's (US) Congressional Hearing on the Banks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLtieiyCFMw
video, via Jesse

Minera Andes MAI.to - Minera share issue meets resistance.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2009/02/minera-andes-maito-minera-share-issue.html

Jim Rogers @ Bloomberg yesterday evening...
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v1yQTu2Ffw3w.asf
Audio

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/index.php/2009/02/11/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-65/
Chart is similar to mine, but is not broken.

FBI investigating 530 corporate fraud cases
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/LawinfoWeblog/~3/537374684/

Cuomo blasts Merrill executives on bonus plan
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/LawinfoWeblog/~3/537398050/

European Bank Bailouts Could Precipitate a Government Crisis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4590512/European-banks-may-need-16.3-trillion-bail-out-EC-dcoument-warns.html
via Jesse

2009-02-11

What's up with gold.

Something happen with gold :)
Besides fundamentals, which I believe are very important, let's see the technical situation.

Weekly :

Blue lines shows a triangle, that was broken week or so ago. The brown lines show rising channel, which we will show on daily chart.

Pink lines show the bottom of the 2006 correction and the top of 2008, when gold hits ~ $1,040. The 2006 high ($740) is exactly at Fibonaci level of 38.2%. There is no other significant supports / resistances at other Fibo levels.

Daily, horizontal supports:

I usually do not pay that much attention to horizontal support / resistance levels. However, gold just *broke* the previous high from OCT.2008 (tested week ago too). Obviusly, the high from DEC.2008 and JAN.2009 - ~ $890 working as a support, and was already tested 2-3 times.

Daily:

Now, the daily chart. We have rising channel. Brown and Pink lines shows different way we can "construct" the channel.

Brown lines have more connecting "dots". If this is the correct way, then the channel is not yet broken.

If Pink lines describing the channel, then channel is broken, and we will see *sharp raise* in gold prices next couple of days.

Because we spoke purely technically, there is third very very low possibility - *bearish* one. Upper line is the Pink one, and bottom line is the Brown one. In such case we have *rising bearish wedge* with target middle $600's. However I do not believe so, also the wedge is *broken* on the "wrong" side already.

Conclusion: Gold raise is due ;)
Got gold?

Madoff's Victims

WSJ made a list of victims participated in Madoff's ponzi fund...

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/st_madoff_victims_20081215.html

Some of the "winners"

Banco Santander

Fortis

HSBC

Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC

BNP Paribas

UniCredit SpA

Hyposwiss

Larry King

I wonder when some newspaper will expose the greatest ponzi of them all - Social Security:
Why Social Security System is a pyramide?
(link with my article in Bulgarian language)