Obamacare passed 219:212

Obamacare ready :D

House sends health care overhaul bill to Obama
House Democrats send historic health bill to President Obama; action shifts to Senate

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/House-sends-health-care-apf-2440271559.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Two more charts

USD Index Daily

USD Index had multi-month bullish wedge. Currently wedge is broken.

EUR/USD 4 h

Interesting with EUR/USD is that unlike gold, it is falling within parallel channel.

Readings

Fannie and Freddie to Suspend Foreclosures
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/460062218/fannie-and-freddie-to-suspend.html

Treasury Capital Purchase Program (TARP)
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/460106104/treasury-capital-purchase-program-tarp.html

More On the New Monetary System
by Larry Edelson 11-20-08
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/more-on-the-new-monetary-system-6-28166
Very good article...

The US Stock Markets Have Now Declined More than 50% - Intermediate Target Hit Today
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/us-stock-markets-have-now-declined-more.html
SPX charts

Citigroup Blames Short Sellers For Collapse
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/460085137/citigroup-blames-short-sellers-for.html

Unemployment Claims Jump Unexpectedly To 16-Year High
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/459937605/unemployment-claims-jump-unexpectedly.html
Unexpectedly ?!?!?!? ;)

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/11/thursday-oil-market-round-up_20.html

Inventory at SLV declines modestly
from The Mess That Greenspan Made by Tim
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/11/inventory-at-slv-declines-modestly.html
SLV tonnage

USD and its proxy indicators...
from Biiwii.com Technical Analysis & Commentary by Gary from biiwii.com
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/459479443/usd-and-its-proxy-indicators.html

Dow closes below 8,000
from Wallstrip » Blog by Wallstrip
http://www.wallstrip.com/2008/11/19/dow-closes-below-8000/

Nouriel Roubini - A new new dealer...
from Biiwii.com Technical Analysis & Commentary by Gary from biiwii.com
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/458836077/nouriel-roubini-new-new-dealer.html

HUI
from Biiwii.com Technical Analysis & Commentary by Gary from biiwii.com
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/458482758/hui.html

European Union to Unveil €130 Billion Stimulus Plan
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/european-union-to-unveil-130-billion.html

Mark Cuban Responds to the SEC
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/mark-cuban-responds-to-sec.html

Silver ETF for Dubai as they fly in bullion for the Hunts of Arabia
from Peter J. Cooper's Weblog by peterjcooper
http://arabianmoney.net/2008/11/18/silver-etf-for-dubai-as-they-fly-in-bullion-for-the-hunts-of-arabia/

Freddie Mac Asks Government for $13.8 Billion
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/453036573/freddie-mac-asks-government-for-138.html

$3.5bn Saudi gold deal huge against $6.5bn consumer record
from Peter J. Cooper's Weblog by peterjcooper
http://arabianmoney.net/2008/11/20/35bn-saudi-gold-deal-huge-against-65bn-consumer-record/

Wednesday Commodities Round-Up
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/11/wednesday-commodities-round-up_19.html

Fed may cut rates again
from Wallstrip » Blog by Wallstrip
http://www.wallstrip.com/2008/11/19/fed-may-cut-rates-again/
same came from Yahoo too.

Iceland Closer to IMF Bailout
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/455274019/iceland-closer-to-imf-bailout.html

IMF Bails Out Pakistan, Iceland Still Waits
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/454514547/imf-bails-out-pakistan-iceland-still.html

A Golden Thoroughbred Named Dolores
http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2008/11/19/a-golden-thoroughbred-named-dolores.aspx#commentsBoxAnchor
(Minefinders of cource)

Media:

Huge meeting in Island
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1vODDWu4Ak

Sean Brodrick: Gold Rush? (audio)
http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php/mediaplayer/1030

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson tells Congress what a swell job he's doing
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/11/bailout-is-working.html
video republished.

Jim Rogers interview on Gold and Dollar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKyLFIKmiDs

In Bulgarian:

Всички искат данъчни намаления
from Блогът за икономика by Георги Ангелов
http://ikonomika.org/?p=1613

Смях от форумите: Земетресението, ако е по Медведев, хич не ми го хвалете!
from e-vestnik.bg by e-vestnik.bg
http://e-vestnik.bg/5040

Not many readings today

Charts in the Babson Style for the Week Ending 7 November
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/charts-in-babson-style-for-week-ending.html
...and for USD
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/weekly-dollar-dx-chart-with-commitments.html

Peak Oil vs. Falling Demand
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/446987732/peak-oil-vs-falling-demand.html

Forex Friday
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/11/forex-friday.html

In Bulgarian:

Айде още едно репортажче … от Ню Йорк
from полетът на костенурката by lyd
http://lydblog.wordpress.com/2008/11/10/ny-obama/
Obama

Защо не бива да се изхвърля разделно
from Семки и бонбонки by Вени Г.
http://semkiibonbonki.blogspot.com/2008/11/blog-post_10.html

Readings

MOST IMPORTANT NEWS FIRST:

Credit Card Bond Sales Zero As the Credit Markets and Consumption Engines Stalls
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/credit-card-bond-sales-zero-as.html
Tada! It begans...

---

READINGS:

Federal Reserve Assets Increase $105 Billion
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/444791462/federal-reserve-assets-increase-105.html

The Gold Bull in Context
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/gold-bull-in-context.html
gold chart

Charts in the Babson Style for 6 November 2008
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/11/charts-in-babson-style-for-6-november.html

One more reason to leave California
from The Mess That Greenspan Made by Tim
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/11/one-more-reason-to-leave-california.html
...and...
Schwarzenegger Calls for Tax Increases, Budget Cuts
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/444727935/schwarzenegger-calls-for-tax-increases.html

The Dollar
from Wallstrip
http://www.wallstrip.com/2008/11/07/the-dollar/
video

---

Interesting:

700 Covers For Obama From Around The World
from .:: ju ::. by ju
http://blog.ju-lian.info/700-covers-for-obama-from-around-the-world/

---

UK:

Gordon's Epic Fail: Brown "Best placed economy"
http://anti-citizen-one.blogspot.com/2008/11/gordons-epic-fail-brown-best-placed.html
video interview

UK: Mortgage Lenders Refuse to Pass on Rate Cut as House Prices Plummet
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/444692375/uk-mortgage-lenders-refuse-to-pass-on.html

---

In Bulgarian:

Срам ме е
from Господин_И вер.2 by ilia.markov@gmail.com (Господин И)
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/gospodin-i/~3/444718306/blog-post_06.html
Безумие някакво :)

Readings

Thanks For Being With Us
from ANTI-SOPITALIST by boris
http://borisc.blogspot.com/2008/10/thanks-for-being-with-us_22.html
Interesting post from Boris...

Roubini on CNBC
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/428721825/roubini-on-cnbc.html
Several videos...

Long Term Gold Chart and a New Set of Hedged Positions
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/10/long-term-gold-chart.html

Asian Stocks Drop To 4-Year Low
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/429386740/asian-stocks-drop-to-4-year-low.html

US Dollar, Yen, Treasuries Soar In Risk Aversion Moves
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/428881482/us-dollar-yen-treasuries-soar-in-risk.html
Currencies

Will Warren Buffett buy gold and silver stocks?
from Peter J. Cooper's Weblog by peterjcooper
http://arabianmoney.net/2008/10/22/will-warren-buffett-buy-gold-and-silver-stocks/

Quick update on gold prices
from Reality Lenses by pej
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/429051908/quick-update-on-gold-prices.html

We're Nowhere Near A Bottom in Housing
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/10/were-nowhere-near-bottom-in-housing_22.html

One dollar per tonne at the Gold ETF
from The Mess That Greenspan Made by noreply@blogger.com (Tim)
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/10/one-dollar-per-tonne-at-gold-etf.html
GLD tonnage

A reason not to invest in pensions?
from Bearwatch by noreply@blogger.com (Sackerson)
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/Bearwatch/~3/428722627/reason-not-to-invest-in-pensions.html
Cry to me Argentina :)

Making history...

VIX hit another high yesterday...

Readings

CDO explained
http://vimeo.com/1876936
video

Historic (VIX)
from Biiwii.com Technical Analysis & Commentary by Gary from biiwii.com
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/416879215/historic.html

Notes From the Rabbit Hole #3
from Biiwii.com Technical Analysis & Commentary by Gary from biiwii.com
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/418720668/notes-from-rabbit-hole-3.html
(Dow)

Is This a 'Deflationary Moment?
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/10/is-this-deflationary-moment.html
In short, no.

Long Term DJIA Adjusted for Inflation - Quo Vademus?
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/10/long-term-djia-adjusted-for-inflation.html

After 20 years of decadence, pay-back time!
from Reality Lenses by pej
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/418964645/after-20-years-of-decadence-soon-time.html

Forex Fridays
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/10/forex-fridays.html

The Crisis is Over???
from The Great Depression of 2006 by Jim in San Marcos
http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/2008/10/crisis-is-over.html

"An inflationary holocaust" - Jim Rogers
from Bearwatch by noreply@blogger.com (Sackerson)
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/Bearwatch/~3/418469133/inflationary-holocaust-jim-rogers.html
video

Federal Reserve and other central banks announce unlimited liquidity
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/419236695/fed-federal-reserve-and-other-central.html

GM to Acquire Chrysler?
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/417402952/gm-to-acquire-chrysler.html

Volcker: We Have the Tools to Manage the Crisis
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/416785613/volcker-we-have-tools-to-manage-crisis.html

Fed Announces Unlimited Borrowing
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/419276845/fed-announces-unlimited-borrowing.html

Fannie, Freddie Commit to Waste $40 Billion a Month Taxpayer Money
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/418268892/fannie-freddie-commit-to-waste-40.html

S&P 500 Crash Count
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/416910789/s-500-crash-count.html
Elliott wave on SPX

Warren Buffett biggest loser on Wall Street
from Peter J. Cooper's Weblog by peterjcooper
http://arabianmoney.net/2008/10/11/warren-buffett-biggest-loser-on-wall-street/

Gold prices getting fishier and fishier
from The Mess That Greenspan Made by noreply@blogger.com (Tim)
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/10/gold-prices-getting-fishier-and-fishier.html

COMMODITIES:

Wheat -- Long-Term Chart
from Trend and Value Report by Lucas Elam
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/trendandvalue/~3/419357300/wheat-long-term-chart.html

Soybeans -- Long-Term Chart
from Trend and Value Report by Lucas Elam
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/trendandvalue/~3/419347671/soybeans-long-term-chart.html

EU:

Gordon Brown gets mad about oil
from Wallstrip » Blog by Wallstrip
http://www.wallstrip.com/2008/10/10/gordon-brown-gets-mad-about-oil/
this is little bit socialism?

U.K.: cash injections for RBS, HBOS, Lloyds TSB
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/419246473/uk-cash-injections-for-rbs-hbos-lloyds.html

$400+ Billion German Bailout Possible
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/418123970/400-billion-german-bailout-possible.html

UK to Invest in Banks on Monday
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/418031187/uk-to-invest-in-banks-on-monday.html

Report: Germany Considering Bank Recapitalization Plan
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/416900176/report-germany-considering-bank.html

Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS Nationalized
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/419087725/royal-bank-of-scotland-hbos.html

WORLD:

Austrians in a Quiet Rush to Gold
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/10/central-europeans-in-quiet-rush-to-gold.html

3 digit SPX

S&P 500 is now 996

Four digit Dow

Dow is under 10,000 now...
Give me next bailout...

Readings

TODAY
Oil Update
from Red-Hot Resources by Sean Brodrick
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/09/what-interesting-turn-of-events.html

(Bill) Gross Profits
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/09/gross-profits.html

HUI: The good, the bad and the uuuhhgggly
from Biiwii.com Technical Analysis & Commentary by Gary from biiwii.com
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/388625343/good-bad-and-uuuhhgggly.html

Don Harrold for Automaker bailout.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECokYXXLTFk

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) holdings dip more than 10 tons
http://www.bbj.hu/main/news_43459_spdr%2Bgold%2Btrust%2Bholdings%2Bdip%2Bmore%2Bthan%2B10%2Btons.html
at lieast this makes sence...

De-Coupling Bites the Dust
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/09/de-coupling-bites-dust.html

---

A MOVIE ALREADY POSTED BEFORE:

---

PREVIOUS:
09 September 2008
Dollar Musings and the Potential for a Significant Stock Market Decline
by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/09/dollar-musings-and-possible-stock.html

09 September 2008
Weaker Oil Demand?
by Sean Brodrick
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/09/weaker-oil-demand.html

02 September 2008
What I Tell Myself When Gold Sells Off
Source: Jeff Clark, Casey Research
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/1600

Maximum panic is the best time to buy gold and silver!
from Peter J. Cooper's Weblog by peterjcooper
http://arabianmoney.net/2008/09/10/maximum-panic-is-the-best-time-to-buy-gold/

Wednesday Commodities Roundup
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/09/wednesday-commodities-roundup.html

Charts

Today I spoke with a frinend for our investments and economy. Here you are some charts:

---

Petrobras support is not broken yet:

---

Case Shiller index (in this case in Seatle),
show declining housing prices. Where price will go? Back in the channel - 140-150.
Sad for the bank, but this is what chart show.
However I still think the hyperinflation will took over and house prices measured in US dollars will bottom before 150.

---

Unfortunately Oil broke the support, but 50 day MA is still OK (for now)
However once again decline calculation:

Decline in Jul 2006 - from 80 to 51 = 36%
Decline in Jul 2008 - from 148 to 106 = 28% (so far)

My friend suggest because both declines began in July, they probably will end at same time - January 2009. I have no idea, but we have huricanes, wars, OPEC, US elections... I believe bottom will be before end of the year at current levels.

---

Oil and Gold measured in EUR:
These charts show Oil and Gold measured in EURo. There are wide spread rummor that Oil, Gold etc are almost flat in EURos. Here are the charts. Thin line is the commodity in USD.

Oil:
until August, Oil tracked same movement in both EUR and USD. In August Oil is flat in EUR, but falling in USD.

Gold:
until 10-12 days ago Gold tracked almost same movement in both EUR and USD. Currently movements are separated, but separation is not that big - see April - May.

Readings No.2

Thoughts on auto sales, hedge funds, big cuts at ResCap, and more
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/09/thoughts-on-auto-sales-hedge-funds-big.html

Food For Thought
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/09/food-for-thought.html
double top in SPX

Now that's really funny...
from The Mess That Greenspan Made
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/09/now-thats-really-funny.html

Ospraie Management to close hedge fund
The Wallstrip Blog
http://www.wallstrip.com/2008/09/03/ospraie-management-to-close-hedge-fund/

Articles from Garry

Gold stocks & Oil
from Garry
http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2008/07/gold-stocks-oil.html

Wrap up to a very interesting day (July 16, 2008)
from Garry
http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2008/07/wrap-up-to-very-interesting-day.html

DJIA

The gains from last year are erased some time ago.
2006 May peak is broken too.
Now we going to 10,700 area.

USD index

USD go down via parallel channel. Now we may expect new low in USD index.

EUR/USD view for week FEB/18/2007

I. Notes:

Because the market is real mess now, this time I will do some long term view, and will give no special recommendations :)

I also will include USD/JPY, because at this point this couple is more clear for trading.

---

II. USD index:

Weekly:This picture is unchanged for monts. Upper blue line is long term resistance. Brown line is old wedge support. The second blue line is probably the support of the USD downtrend. I say "probably" because is not clear where exactly this line must be placed, also there is no confirmation for exact same line in EUR/USD. The pink line is short term support.

Daily:The pink line from weekly chart is the support here, shown in blue. The figure looks like a triangle, so the price may fall much next weeks. However this is unclear.

---

III. EUR/USD weekly:
Same wedge/parallel channel here. The resistance is not shown, but is there :-)
Note the pink line. EUR raised 3 times, but was unable to break it.

---

IV. USD/JPY 2 days chart:
On USD/JPY front, we see that the USD decline since several weeks. Channel is almost perfect. At the moment USD raising to the upper boundary of the channel. However it may be a wedge too. In order to go long, we will need to see break on pink line, which will indicate there is NO wedge.

---

V. Summary:

This is almost the same as I wrote 3 weeks ago:

I believe FED will cut more, US stockmarket, Gold, Oil, EUR will raise. However in short term we will could see a dollar rally.

I still think EUR is just a paper, but as I said before, FED is in panic mode now and will sacrifice the dollar, in order to save stockmarket and to avoid recession and deflation. Of course I do not believe we will see deflation except in housing sector, I also believe the US will fall into a recession anyway. But I still believe US stockmarket will raise in USD terms because of inflation and money printing.

Happy week and happy trade!

USD index

USD index downtrend channel - now or never :)

USD index

An falling channel in USD index, same in EUR/USD.
We will see.

USD index

USD Index broke pink channel. If channel is really broken, a move to ~80 (red) has began.
I think the Core CPI today will be the inflection point.

Update - there are one more target between 80 and 76 where we are, but because of the timeframe can not be shown here.