EUR/USD view for week FEB/18/2007

I. Notes:

Because the market is real mess now, this time I will do some long term view, and will give no special recommendations :)

I also will include USD/JPY, because at this point this couple is more clear for trading.

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II. USD index:

Weekly:This picture is unchanged for monts. Upper blue line is long term resistance. Brown line is old wedge support. The second blue line is probably the support of the USD downtrend. I say "probably" because is not clear where exactly this line must be placed, also there is no confirmation for exact same line in EUR/USD. The pink line is short term support.

Daily:The pink line from weekly chart is the support here, shown in blue. The figure looks like a triangle, so the price may fall much next weeks. However this is unclear.

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III. EUR/USD weekly:
Same wedge/parallel channel here. The resistance is not shown, but is there :-)
Note the pink line. EUR raised 3 times, but was unable to break it.

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IV. USD/JPY 2 days chart:
On USD/JPY front, we see that the USD decline since several weeks. Channel is almost perfect. At the moment USD raising to the upper boundary of the channel. However it may be a wedge too. In order to go long, we will need to see break on pink line, which will indicate there is NO wedge.

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V. Summary:

This is almost the same as I wrote 3 weeks ago:

I believe FED will cut more, US stockmarket, Gold, Oil, EUR will raise. However in short term we will could see a dollar rally.

I still think EUR is just a paper, but as I said before, FED is in panic mode now and will sacrifice the dollar, in order to save stockmarket and to avoid recession and deflation. Of course I do not believe we will see deflation except in housing sector, I also believe the US will fall into a recession anyway. But I still believe US stockmarket will raise in USD terms because of inflation and money printing.

Happy week and happy trade!