I. Important news from the week:
1. Gold correcting again (~$780)
2. Market raise
3. JPY declining
4. Crude correcting and is back to ~$89
II. As I wrote before:
FED blew it!!! They totally destroyed the dollar in long term. I think they will inflate now, and stock market will go higher and higher, but only in nominal terms.GOT GOLD :-)
III. The parallel uptrend (old wedge):
USD Index:

EUR (XEU) Index:

EUR/USD 1 day chart:

In case the channel is not broken, there is a triangle (not shown) and once the triangle is broken we will see new high, may be almost 1.50.
This is the bullish scenario - 1.50
In case channel is broken, we will see 1.42. This will NOT happen imediately -
bearish scenario - 1.42,
also this may happen even if EUR raise first, but not make new high.
I believe this is probable scenario - 1.48-1.49, then down to 1.42
EUR/USD 2 hours chart:

What next - next, I think the EUR must go to upper, and to sest the formal support. Sinse the break is with 20 pips only, EUR may enter in the channel again.
IV. GBP/JPY H&S:
No chart, but we still have huge H&S formation. Target is under 200.
There are very interesting development, which I will covering during the week.
Do not trade GBP/JPY. It is extremely volatile.
V. Summary:
I can say absolutely the same as previous week:
No trade recommendations this week, I personaly have long position on EUR/USD.
Remember EUR is just a worthless paper as the USD is. Eurozone has own problems too. The only reason EUR go up against the USD is because Eurozone and ECB do not inflate as much as FED. Or may be they do now. Who knows. The inflation we see now, is actually from money supply increased 6 mo ago. So we do not know if ECB printing money or not.
There is only one real currency and is called GOLD. As you can see, gold rising against all currencies, not only against the USD. This may mean only one thing - inflation rising. Actually some people believes gold is bubble, but this is wrong opinion (will explain why I thing that some other time).
Happy week and trade!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment