Recession is official?

U.S. Economy: Growth Rate Falls Short of Forecasts
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aW9BoDQLVQ9I&refer=economy

Packman game continue

Goldcorp to buy Gold Eagle, reports surprise loss
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN3143999520080731?rpc=44

Goldcorp consolidates Red Lake District with $1.5 billion acquisition of Gold Eagle
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/July2008/31/c8682.html

Best Investments for the Next 5 Years

The Worst, Best Investments for the Next 5 Years ...
by Larry Edelson 07-31-08
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2035

Readings...

Food And Energy Prices: A Prolonged Correction Underway?
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/index.asp

Commodities and inflation
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7a7b336c-5e6e-11dd-b354-000077b07658.html
(nice charts)

The Difference Between a Panic and a Crash
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/difference-between-panic-and-crash.html

Just How Accurate is the ADP Payroll Report?
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/just-how-accurate-is-adp-payroll-report.html


Lopping off zeros in Zimbabwe
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/07/lopping-off-zeros-in-zimbabwe.html
(Zimbabwe Dollar denomination)


Interesting debt data
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/07/interesting-debt-data.html

Wednesday Commodities Round-Up; Agricultural
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/wednesday-commodities-round-up_30.html

Curing US Inflation, Zimbabwe Style
by Adrian Ash (Bullionvault.com)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10871.htm

A log scale won't help this chart

Wow!
The Mess That Greenspan Made: A log scale won't help this chart

Man, this is highly inflationary... or in case money are destroyed - highly deflationary. In all cases this is not good.

I have 2 words for it - 1:BUY 2:GOLD :-)

Get Ready for the Next Leg Up in Oil

Get Ready for the Next Leg Up in Oil
by Sean Brodrick 07-30-08
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2032

Mark Bailey interview

Minefinders (MFN) update on Dolores project:
http://watch.bnn.ca/monday/#clip69882

The Housing Crisis is Far From Over

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/housing-crisis-is-far-from-over.html

Dollar and Anti-Dollar.

EUR/USD ~ 1.55.85, Oil ~ $120, Gold ~ $915

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May Case-Shiller data: 15.8% YOY drop in prices
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/may-case-shiller-data-158-yoy-drop-in.html

Case-Shiller: House Prices Decline in May
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/349431737/case-shiller-house-prices-decline-in.html

July consumer confidence inches higher
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/july-consumer-confidence-inches-higher.html

Readings...

Merrill Announces Sale of ABS CDOs, More Dilution, $5.7 Billion in Write-Downs
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/348815921/merrill-announces-sale-of-abs-cdos-more.html

Merrill Lynch dials for more dollars
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/merrill-lynch-dials-for-more-dollars.html

White House: Record deficit coming
from Interest Rate Roundup by Mike Larson
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/07/white-house-record-deficit-coming.html

IMF Sees No End to the Credit Crisis - the possibility of hyperinflation
from Jesse's Cafe Americain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/imf-sees-no-end-to-credit-crisis.html

Who’s really getting bailed out here
from NakedShorts by Greg Newton
http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/2008/07/whos-really-getting-bailed-out-here.html
(Japan)

Charts and News for Monday
from Red-Hot Resources by Sean Brodrick
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-and-news-for-monday.html

Natural Gas Dropping
from The Bonddad Blog by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/natural-gas-dropping.html

Homeowner rescue awaits President Bush’s signature
from Lawinfo Weblog by admin
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/LawinfoWeblog/~3/348478954/

Gold and Dollar

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10862.htm

two more US bankfailures and starbucks

Where Starbucks Went Wrong
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2008/07/26/where-starbucks-went-wrong.aspx?source=nl

U.S. regulators seize two more banks, engineer sale
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080726/ts_nm/banks_fdic_dc;_ylt=AtfoT0TyAahaYz8ZMYEbQGoDW7oF

Weekend readings

Now, Failure Friday!
from NakedShorts by Greg Newton
http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/2008/07/now-failure-friday.html

How Low Can Commodities Go?
from Red-Hot Resources by Sean Brodrick
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/07/how-low-can-commodities-go.html

Carbon emissions trade in EU...
Търговията на ЕС с въглеродни емисии – загуби и съмнителна полза за климата
http://e-vestnik.bg/4332
(in Bulgarian)

India's Gold Demand: A Panic for Gold?
by Adrian Ash (BullionVault.com)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10832.htm

Gold/Silver Market Update
by Clive Maund
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10851.htm
...and...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10850.htm

Honest Money Gold and Silver Report: Market Wrap
by Douglas V. Gnazzo
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10857.htm

Wall Street in Financial Stock Fantasyland
by Mike Larson
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2014

Readings...

Bear Market Phases
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/345448011/bear-market-phases.html

Ten Bear Market Phases
1. A huge buy the dip mentality sets in during the initial decline. Most party goes cannot fathom that party has ended.
2. Moderate concern sets in when buy the dip stops working.
3. Initial panic.
4. Numerous bottom calls are made, all wrong.
5. Search for the guilty.
6. Punishment of the innocent.
7. More panic.
8. Lawsuits fly.
9. Regulatory power is given to those most responsible for spiking the punch bowl.
10. Congress gets in the act and makes things worse

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Ridiculous Lawsuits Fly At Taxpayer Expense
from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/344971717/ridiculous-lawsuits-fly-at-taxpayer.html

San Diego sues Bank of America to halt foreclosures
Los Angeles Sues MBIA, Ambac, Others Over Bond Insurance

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Unsecured Creditors Pulling Funds from Washington Mutual
from Jesse's Café Américain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/unsecured-creditors-pulling-funds-from.html

Fitch Projects A Further 25% Decline in US Home Prices
from Jesse's Café Américain by Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/fitch-projects-further-25-decline-in-us.html
...and...
same
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/345095506/fitch-projects-additional-25-percent.html

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Rise Sharply
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/344729016/freddie-mac-mortgage-rates-rise-sharply.html

2.2 million vacant homes for sale
from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/345363963/22-million-vacant-homes-for-sale.html

Price comparisson

Agriculture (DBA), Oil (USO), Natural gas (UNG), Gold (GLD) comparisson. Note in DBA there are something like double top. In Gold picture is "softer", more like a triangle. In Oil and Gas - the double top completly missing.

Lets the pacman game begins

Kinross to buy Aurelian Resources for $1.18B
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080724/kinross_gold_acquisition.html?.v=1

According my calculation, if we assume Kinross share is $21, Aurelian shareholders will receive little bit more than 6 $ per Aurelian share, which is about 50% more than current price (~$4).

Kinross currently down 4-5 %, but in long term they will profit from this merge a lot.

---

This is informational message, and is not buy/sell recommendation.

Oil joke

Readings from yesterday and today

You Know The Banking System Is Unsound When....
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/you-know-banking-system-is-unsound-when.html
(an excelent article from Mish)

Mish: "The entire US banking system is insolvent."
http://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2008/07/mish-entire-us-banking-system-is.html
(Comments on previous article)



What's the Cost For Fannie and Freddie?
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/whats-cost-for-fannie-and-freddie.html

Marc Faber's Latest Views
Video:
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Faber%20Says%20Fannie%2C%20Freddie%20Should%20Split%20Up%2C%20Not%20Get%20Aid&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIlnyetSHhx0.asf
(The world is in recession already, I put out a negative view for industrial commodities for the second half of 2008 and I stick to this view)

Fannie, Freddie Rise After Lawmakers Agree on Bill
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aEUQ4aE8D2HI&refer=news

Ford: $8.7 Billion Loss
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/07/ford-87-billion-loss.html

China may dump its US Treasury holdings
http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/2008/07/23/china-may-dump-its-us-treasury-holdings/

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/07/thursday-oil-market-round-up_24.html

Charts on Gold, the Dollar, Oil -- and News You Can Use
http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-on-gold-dollar-oil-and-news-you.html

UK Investors Buy Physical Gold in Record Numbers - Target Price for Next Leg Increases
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/uk-investors-buy-physical-gold-in.html

Charts in the Babson Style for Midweek 23 July 2008
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/charts-in-babson-style-for-midweek-23.html

Updated Gold Forecast for 2008-2009
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/07/updated-gold-forecast-for-2008-2009.html
($1200+ at the year end)

Wachovia - + 6%

and Wachovia is now... +6% ?!?!? :-)

Wachovia - 10% underwater

After ralling more than 40% for the week and after "disabling" short selling, Wachovia took another hit - 8.9 billion losses. Dividend is also cut.
Looks like this was more that the street expected because pre-market WB is 10% underwater.
Once again I was prooven right not to tuch financials :)