2010-10-12

EUR chart

EUR 4h

EURo fall outside of the channel now. I really look smart by selling it yesterday at almost no profit.
Will check the charts once again later today.

2010-10-11

2010-10-10

Readings

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/2010/10/08/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-350/

The SLV ETF Now Holds 10,000 Tonnes!
http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/10/09/the-slv-etf-now-holds-10000-tonnes/

Fun with Numbers and Gold
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18496/fun-with-numbers-and-gold?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
Gold in EURos

The Hail Mary
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18498/the-hail-mary?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Gold, Get it While You Can
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18499/gold-get-it-while-you-can?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Projected Charts
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/10/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-projected.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
...and...
SPX Chart
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/10/sp-500-and-ndx-december-futures-daily_08.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Dollar Dives
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/carl-swenlin/dollar-dives?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fso+%28Financial+Sense%29&utm_content=Google+Reader&utm_term=FSO
(possible short term rally in USD)

King World News Weekly Metals Wrap
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/10/9_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html
audio

Gold-Stock Record Highs
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18494/gold-stock-record-highs?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

2010-10-07

Updated charts

Here are the new charts during the correction. I believe all Gold, Silver and EUR must be watched, because the name of the game is "Anti-Dollar".

Silver 8h
Line is broken. Silver may be back in the channel.

EUR/USD 4h
EUR was never outside the channel.

Gold 4h
Line is not broken. Waiting...

Stages of a bubble

Stages of a bubble - nice chart, in case you did not saw it already.

Gold / Silver comparisson


This is comparisson of gold and silver price.

As we can see, except the pink spots, the silver following the gold, but is more volatile. the current rally started at the same time, but silver did raise slower at the beginning. the percentage gain for the whole chart period is almost identical.

Meanwhile gold / silver ratio is favouring the silver (not shown on this chart).

Silver 1 week

Silver 1 week
Weekly formation is similar to gold

IMF Chief Warns of Currency War

Via Bonddad:
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2010/10/imf-chief-warns-of-currency-war.html

Gold Analysis: Trees and the forest

Sometimes I really can't see the forest for the trees.

I was so focused on short term movements of gold, so I did not realised that the recent rice in gold prices is actually a result of longer time frame period.

Here is the big picture as I see it:

First of all, here are un-annotated 6 years gold chart. I combined two small charts, so the vertical axis is not precise.

Gold 6 years

Click to enlarge, the chart is huge.
Yellow dots show the tops from the beginning of the gold bull run. After each top, I marked with another yellow dot the correction bottom.
There are some green dots - important higs but they are part of the trend.

So we have:

click to enlarge.
note - correction % is correct, but must be multiplied by 100.

Same for copy/paste:
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Date start | Date top | Date bottom | Start | Top  | Corr | Gain% | Corr% | Durration | Durration corr |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|            | 2004-DEC | 2005-FEB    |       |  456 |  410 |       | 10.09 |           |            2 m |
| 2005-FEB   | 2006-MAY | 2006-JUN    |   410 |  740 |  542 | 80.49 | 26.76 |      15 m |            1 m |
| 2006-JUN   | 2008-MAR | 2008-OCT    |   542 | 1033 |  681 | 90.59 | 34.08 |       9 m |            7 m |
| 2008-OCT   | 2009-NOV | 2010-FEB    |   681 | 1226 | 1044 | 80.03 | 14.85 |      13 m |            3 m |
| 2010-FEB   | 2010-OCT |             |  1044 | 1252 |      | 19.92 |       |       8 m |                |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

This is absolutely the chart, but with the channels and triangles.

Important thing here is the development after 2009-NOV ($865 low).

Here is the weekly chart with same channel as on previous chart, but enlarged.

Currently the price is almost at the middle line. Yes there could be some more raise to 1355 or so, but resistance is stronger now.

Here is the same weekly chart, but is produced with my trading software. It is more - crude, but we can see the $1450 target clearly.

If resistance is broken, a rice to 1450 will follow. This is simillar to Jesse's target.
If resistance is not broken, a correction to 1225 will follow. After this gold will be on the rice again.

2010-10-06

Recent historical gold run reviews

Gold 5 years chart


Instead of doing technical analysis of current gold, now we will see similar runs in the past and try to compare it with the current run.

Its' easy to see when the gold do a top, but ut is very hard to decide when the run begins. Currently I decided the beginning to be from the moment when "the price really pick up". Later I will do same analysis but from the lows.

Next is to decide what to compare. Currently I compare rally duration, percentage of gain and MACD.

Idea for next study will be the % of the correction.

Current MACD is 22, and it is lower than the values of previous runs.
Depending where current run began, duration is up to 8 mo.
Gain is less than previous runs. If we do small calculation, a 40% run will make current gold run $1,470.




Gold runs...

...to $740.


...to $1,000.


...to $1,200.





Gold runs excl corrections:

...to $740.


...to $1,000.


...to $1,200.





Table comparisson:
(click to enlarge)


Copy paste table:
+--------------------------------------------------------------------+
| run | begin   | end     | $ lo | $ hi | MACD | dur | incr | incr % |
+-----+---------+---------+------+------+------+-----+------+--------+
|   1 | 2005-08 | 2006-04 |  450 |  740 |   30 |  8m |  290 |  64.44 |
|   2 | 2007-08 | 2008-03 |  660 | 1000 |   25 |  7m |  340 |  51.52 |
|   3 | 2009-04 | 2009-11 |  860 | 1220 |   30 |  6m |  360 |  41.86 |
|   4 | 2010-08 | -       | 1160 | 1350 |   20 |  2m |  190 |  16.38 |
|  4a | 2010-02 | -       | 1050 | 1350 |   20 |  8m |  300 |  28.57 |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------+

Readings...

Historic breakout to new all-time highsfrom gold scents
by Toby Connor
http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2010/10/historic-breakout-to-new-all-time-highs.html

Global Competitive Debasement; Currency Wars Begin; Message of Gold
by Mish
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/XHwktkIvegA/global-competitive-debasement-currency.html

226 stocks closed at all-time highsfrom uglychart.com: a blog about stocks
by Sparky
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/uglychart/~3/mpLUcr34Gzs/
SLV, GLD, GDX

Gold chart

Gold 12h chart

Gold broke upper channel.
This was unexpected and I prefer gold to go back into the channel.
Same time, I studied the RSI, MACD and SlowSto, and those indicators does not show unusual levels. MACD even show lower level than in May.2010.

2010-10-05

USD index

USD Index 6 mo period

(In)famous support at 80 is broken again.Price fall within the channel in brown or alternatively in channel in pink.
There is a small probability for bullis wedge - upper brown and bottom pink lines, but it needs to be confirmed some more..

Anti-Dollar - Old game again?

May be the old game called "Anti-Dollar" begun again.

Here are some charts:

EUR/USD 4h

I did not watched EUR/USD for months. Looks like there are bullish channel here. Channel begun @ 10.SEP.2010

At the time of writting EUR hits 1.38 USD.

Silver 8h

Similar to EUR, silver buck also rising. One may think that silver will be very volatile, but strange enought on the chart - it is not. Channel begun @ 24.AUG.2010. This is presiding the date when EUR rise begun.

Gold 16h

Gold rise begun @ 28.JUL.2010. Rise is so strong, so today the channel was broken from upside - 1,332 USD intraday high.

The post is kind of open ended, but I will continue to write on the topic.

UPDATE 1:
Gold 16h

same chart with notes when Silver and EUR rali begun.

2010-09-29

Jesse's Café Américain: Is the Gold Rally Strictly a US Dollar Phenomenon?...

Jesse do interesting post (as usual :-) ). This is like continuation of my post for Gold:USDx

Jesse's Café Américain: Is the Gold Rally Strictly a US Dollar Phenomenon?...: "One sometimes hears that 'gold is only rallying in US dollars.' One can always point out that since the US dollar is still the world's re..."

2010-09-28

Gold @ 1300

Today yellow metal reached 1,300.00 USD.

Gold is same as before. Same as tomatoes, same as stones.
Gold is same as it was back then when was $640.

The difference is the dollar. Dollar is fiat currency, backed by nothing.
Dollar worth only the paper on which is printed.
It is not a surprise that small kids - 3-4 years old thinks that coins worth more than banknotes.
Of course they must cost more because they are made from metal!!!

Now I expect gold to fell a little bit, but next target is 1350, then 1600 and so on to at least 2100.

Gold update

As I show in previous post here:
http://nmmmnu.blogspot.com/2010/09/gold-8h_27.html
Gold fell to the middle blue line $1282, but it reveres quite fast.
We are once again at the top line, now at $1308 and
I expect drop again, at least to $1282 area.

2010-09-27

Monastery bells

This is small video I made in Monastery near Gigintzi village.
Put the volume *down* before start the video!!! :-)
Nikanor - the monk who rings the bells have interesting story - he was stockmarket broker and Elliot wave market analyst. Then he decided that "there are many brokers, but not enought monks" and went to this monastery.

Hopefuly he still doing market and currency analysis for me :-) , some of them can be found on the blog.

Gold 8h

8h Gold chart with updated trendlines.

Gold / USD index

There is a chart of gold, divided by USD index.
As we can see there is new high there and figure does not resemble a wedge at all.

2010-09-22

Gold 8h

What a difference a week make. Now I expect price to fall at least to the middle line, or even to bottom of the channel.

Google from week ago

The chart is old, and now price is at the upper pink line.

2010-08-25

Gold weekly and P&F

Gold 1 week


Gold P&F

Gold and EUR charts

Gold 8h
Price rising inside the blue, but there is resistance @ ~1243 (brown). Yesterday huge drop was channel test, but also invalide the possibility of bearish wedge (not shown).

Gold 4h
Same story, but "blue" channel can be seen more clear.

EUR/USD 4h
Eurodollar is a mess right now. Brown lines form something like reverse triangle, but the break is much like a wedge (pink).

Interesting that Eurodollar chart has no resemblance of gold at all. We can strongly say now that gold act on his own, and we can not use any currency (nor EUR, nor CHF, nor AUD) as a proxy for gold.

2010-08-11

RIP Matt Simmons

Via Jesse:

Energy expert Simmons dies in North Haven
By Tux Turkel
Kennebec Journal
Matthew Simmons, an international oil expert who most recently focused on developing renewable energy from the waters off Maine, died Sunday night of an apparent heart attack, his office is reporting. He was 67.

Simmons founded the Ocean Energy Institute in 2007, hosting a grand opening of its new office last month in Rockland. The goal of the think tank and venture capital fund was to attract investment in research to make Maine a global leader in offshore wind and other ocean energy sources.

According to police reports, Simmons suffered a heart attack while in a hot tub at his home on North Haven. An autopsy is planned for today in Augusta, according to the Knox County Sheriff's Office.

Simmons was a leading energy investment banker, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, and author. He wrote the 2005 book “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy,” which laid out an argument that the world was approaching peak oil production.

2010-07-21

Gold weekly

Jesse was the first who point this chart couple of days ago.
At the moment gold is at weekly support back from SEP.2008 low.

2010-07-15

vampire energy

Interesting, but I am not sure if this is true. I have lots of "stuff" on stand-by and my electricity bill is not as big as if I use calculation from the example.

Click for bigger picture:

Inflation in America – What will hyperinflation look like?

If you read the blog often, then this article will not be so interested, but I love the pictures here:
http://moneytipcentral.com/inflation-in-america-what-will-hyperinflation-look-like

Hans-Hermann Hoppe videos

What is money?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gizetn5VuA0

The Theory of Banking
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3PKHVbOet8

2010-07-13

Readings

Gold Daily and Weekly Charts
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/gold-daily-and-weekly-charts.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

SP 500 September Futures Daily Chart
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/sp-500-september-futures-daily-chart_12.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/2010/07/12/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-301/

EU launches public debate on the future of pensions
http://ikonomika.org/?p=4172
video

Essential Warren Buffett on Passion, BP, iPad
http://chrispycrunch.blogspot.com/2010/07/essential-warren-buffett-on-passion-bp.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MyNotesOnTheStockMarket+%28My+Notes+on+the+Stock+Market%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
video

Mish interview on TechTicker on stimulus and the economy
http://realitylenses.blogspot.com/2010/07/mish-interview-on-techticker-on.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+RealityLenses+%28Reality+Lenses%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
video

Bob Murphy — Only the Austrian Economists understand Interest Rates
http://realitylenses.blogspot.com/2010/07/bob-murphy-only-austrian-economics.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+RealityLenses+%28Reality+Lenses%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
video

2010-07-12

Tesla Motors

Tesla Motors price stabilize at around $17...

Tribute to George Blake, a.k.a. "Zapata George"

Tribute to George Blake, a.k.a. "Zapata George"

6 July 2010: We were saddened to learn that "Zapata George" passed away over the weekend. A frequent guest on Financial Sense Newshour, George's signature "No Bull" style was extremely popular with our listeners and fans. His voice and his friendship will be greatly missed. —FSO Staff

2010-07-01

Tesla: If this is not bubble, I don't know what is...

After the IPO, Tesla shares began to trade to up to $30. This is almost double from $17 IPO price.
With yesterday close, Tesla market cap is about 2.5B. Company that sold only 100-150 cars and have only loses in the balance sheet, can not have such market cap.

Also, Tesla is not only company that produce electric cars. Sure, they are not as shiny as Tesla - see car you can buy from my friends at http://www.vromos.com/ :


Some info suggest that GM, Toyota and even Ford will have soon electric cars.

I expect the price to fell to $15-16 in near future.

2010-06-30

SPX chart


This chart is from Jesse blog.
I can see parallel channel here and if the channel is not broken, we may expect huge rally.

2010-06-29

Readings

This time, links not work.
Please copy paste the links into your browser :-)

Dow-Gold ratio - Big picture
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BiiwiicomNotes/~3/Sn3qGKNROG8/dow-gold-ratio-big-picture.html

Confirmation of the Euro trend reversal?
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RealityLenses/~3/vrwPTVlGY0Q/confirmation-of-euro-trend-reversal.html

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/2010/06/28/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-294/

Silver is top pick for commodities guru Jim Rogers
http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2010/06/29/silver-is-top-pick-for-commodities-guru-jim-rogers/
video

Oil spill video from NASA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfOinnQeHIY&feature=player_embedded
video

Gold update.

Gold is @ the support now - $1,233. If support not hold, will go some more down to ~$1,220.

2010-06-28

Updatae gold charts

1 day:

Not so much change here.

4 hours:

Here price fell to lower boundary (brown line). note yellow tops. This may very well be double top, that will send the price to $2220 or so. Then a triangle will form (pink / blue) and price will raise.

Another possibility is to have small triangle (pink / brown).

Same time Jesse sees cup and handle:
here and here