2010-10-30

Some more - CHF, AUD, WTI

This study is not that precise, nor I will use it for trading.

CHF/USD 12h

...and CHF 12h flipped :-)
because CHF is inverse chart, we flipped it.
looks like CHF made a top and now correction is under way.

AUD/USD 8h
Unlike CHF, AUD is not topped, but now it is in formation like a rectangle. However, inside the rectangle, it made lower lows (pink line).

Other currencies

CAD and GBP going nowhere and charts are not interesting for us.

Oil (WTI) - 1 day
Crude is not dynamic at all. There is formation that first may look like rectangle, but second look shows that most of the highs are higher highs - see yellow dots. Only exceptions are the two green dost. So formation is more like upper channel.

Gold, Silver, EURo

Gold 1 week
Situation here is unchanged, but chart worth to be watch.

Gold 12h
Price raised to the upper boundary of the channel in brown. Now probably price will fell once again to ~1330 or so.

Gold 4h
Same, but I added possible downtrend channel - in pink.

Silver 8h
Looks like in silver, situation is more dynamic. We can see same channel as in gold, but channel is broken at the top.

EUR/USD 4h
EUR lagging, it is not at the top of the channel, even more - the downtrend is very well seen (brown). We also could see the uptrend channel inside the downtrend channel (pink). This could be very well a triangle.

Conclusion:
Once again we need to monitor all the charts.

2010-10-28

Gold and EUR charts

EUR 4h
No change n developments...

Gold 4h
H&S is invalidated, but short-term development is still bullish.

2010-10-27

Fern fractal

Charts

EUR/USD 4h
EUR is in down channel (blue).
At the moment it looks like a correction, but we expect the price to fall to the bottom before go up.

Silver

Silver chart is similar to gold chart so it is not included.

Gold 12h
Unlike EURo, Gold and Silver are still over the support (blue line) from recent raly. The triangle (brown) is broken, but price do not made new high, so probably the triangle or support will be tested again.

Gold 2h
On the 2h chart, we can see H&S bottom may be forming. Second sholder is at the same level as first one, so if the price fell little bit more, the H&S pattern will be invalidated.

Please note that H&S PATERN IS *NOT* FORMED UNTIL IS FORMED and require price to raise over the neckline level at ~1,350.

2010-10-25

Charts

EUR/USD 4h
Previous top was broken for a while, but now once again is under it. Price remains in pink channel, and probably will fall.
Silver 4h
Broken triangle.

Gold

Gold 12h

Broken triangle.
Gold 4h
Broken down channel (part of the triangle).
Just upper is the formal support line (pink).



Gold 1h
Broken down channel (part of the triangle)

2010-10-18

Gold periods


Looking at gold chart from year 2000 until now, we can see couple of rises in gold price.
[row 1] 1st rise was from 400 to 740 (185%). Then it corrected to 590 (25%).
[row 2] 2nd rise was from 590 to 1000 (169%) and corrected to 790 (27%).

[row 3] We believed that the third rise was from 790 to 1200 (152%) and corrected back to 1150 (4%).

However nor the rise, nor the decline is "similar" to previous rises.

[row 3] Thats why we may think that the third rise was from 790 to 1390 (176%) and that the correction is underway now. If correction is 27%, then gold must correct $375 down to 1015.

Another study could be, to see, what are percentage differences between the rises (in the table it is called "% from previous up") :

[row 2] From 1st to 2nd we have 740 to 1000 = 35%
[row 3] From 2nd to 3rd we have 1000 to 1200 = 20%
[row 3a] From 2nd to 3rd-a we have 1000 to 1200 = 39%

Once again [row 3a] is more "similar".

Another study, not shown here could be % from previous bottom.

[row 2] From 1st to 2nd we have 590 to 790 = 34%

[row 3] From 2nd to 3rd we have 790 to 1150 = 46% (not very likely)
[row 3a] From 2nd to 3rd-a we have 790 to 1015 = 39% (more likely)

Note this study uses the hypotetical bottom from previous study.
==============
Update:

If we extend the current rally to 1450, this could give us following data:

Rise % = 184%

Correction % = 27% (from previous study)
% from previous up = 45% (bit much)
% from previous bottom = 34%

2010-10-15

Gold weekly

Weekly chart - middle line s broken and now target is 1465.
Of cource correction is overdue.

Charts

EUR/USD 4h

EUR/USD 1h - probably a megaphon pattern

Gold 4h - probably new channel is formed

Silver 4h - probably new channel is formed

2010-10-12

PM charts

Silver weekly

Price is on the top of the channel, now price probably will go down.

Gold 12h

Price falling now. Important here is that unlike silver, Gold and EUR too failed to do higher-high (pink dots).

Gold weekly

Chart is similar to silver chart. Price is on top of the channel and need to decline a bit to ~1250 area.

EUR chart

EUR 4h

EURo fall outside of the channel now. I really look smart by selling it yesterday at almost no profit.
Will check the charts once again later today.

2010-10-10

Readings

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
http://jsmineset.com/2010/10/08/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-350/

The SLV ETF Now Holds 10,000 Tonnes!
http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/10/09/the-slv-etf-now-holds-10000-tonnes/

Fun with Numbers and Gold
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18496/fun-with-numbers-and-gold?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
Gold in EURos

The Hail Mary
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18498/the-hail-mary?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Gold, Get it While You Can
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18499/gold-get-it-while-you-can?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Projected Charts
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/10/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-projected.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
...and...
SPX Chart
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/10/sp-500-and-ndx-december-futures-daily_08.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Dollar Dives
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/carl-swenlin/dollar-dives?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fso+%28Financial+Sense%29&utm_content=Google+Reader&utm_term=FSO
(possible short term rally in USD)

King World News Weekly Metals Wrap
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/10/9_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html
audio

Gold-Stock Record Highs
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18494/gold-stock-record-highs?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

2010-10-07

Updated charts

Here are the new charts during the correction. I believe all Gold, Silver and EUR must be watched, because the name of the game is "Anti-Dollar".

Silver 8h
Line is broken. Silver may be back in the channel.

EUR/USD 4h
EUR was never outside the channel.

Gold 4h
Line is not broken. Waiting...

Stages of a bubble

Stages of a bubble - nice chart, in case you did not saw it already.

Gold / Silver comparisson


This is comparisson of gold and silver price.

As we can see, except the pink spots, the silver following the gold, but is more volatile. the current rally started at the same time, but silver did raise slower at the beginning. the percentage gain for the whole chart period is almost identical.

Meanwhile gold / silver ratio is favouring the silver (not shown on this chart).

Silver 1 week

Silver 1 week
Weekly formation is similar to gold

IMF Chief Warns of Currency War

Via Bonddad:
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2010/10/imf-chief-warns-of-currency-war.html

Gold Analysis: Trees and the forest

Sometimes I really can't see the forest for the trees.

I was so focused on short term movements of gold, so I did not realised that the recent rice in gold prices is actually a result of longer time frame period.

Here is the big picture as I see it:

First of all, here are un-annotated 6 years gold chart. I combined two small charts, so the vertical axis is not precise.

Gold 6 years

Click to enlarge, the chart is huge.
Yellow dots show the tops from the beginning of the gold bull run. After each top, I marked with another yellow dot the correction bottom.
There are some green dots - important higs but they are part of the trend.

So we have:

click to enlarge.
note - correction % is correct, but must be multiplied by 100.

Same for copy/paste:
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Date start | Date top | Date bottom | Start | Top  | Corr | Gain% | Corr% | Durration | Durration corr |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|            | 2004-DEC | 2005-FEB    |       |  456 |  410 |       | 10.09 |           |            2 m |
| 2005-FEB   | 2006-MAY | 2006-JUN    |   410 |  740 |  542 | 80.49 | 26.76 |      15 m |            1 m |
| 2006-JUN   | 2008-MAR | 2008-OCT    |   542 | 1033 |  681 | 90.59 | 34.08 |       9 m |            7 m |
| 2008-OCT   | 2009-NOV | 2010-FEB    |   681 | 1226 | 1044 | 80.03 | 14.85 |      13 m |            3 m |
| 2010-FEB   | 2010-OCT |             |  1044 | 1252 |      | 19.92 |       |       8 m |                |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

This is absolutely the chart, but with the channels and triangles.

Important thing here is the development after 2009-NOV ($865 low).

Here is the weekly chart with same channel as on previous chart, but enlarged.

Currently the price is almost at the middle line. Yes there could be some more raise to 1355 or so, but resistance is stronger now.

Here is the same weekly chart, but is produced with my trading software. It is more - crude, but we can see the $1450 target clearly.

If resistance is broken, a rice to 1450 will follow. This is simillar to Jesse's target.
If resistance is not broken, a correction to 1225 will follow. After this gold will be on the rice again.