2008-02-27

More articles

Who is Blowing Bubbles in the Commodity Markets? by Gary Dorsch
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9563.htm
(yet another article for things we know and the regular investor - do not)

Housing Is Nowhere Near the Bottom by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/02/housing-is-nowhere-near-bottom_27.html

The Next Step: "Gold and Silver Accepted Here" by Alex Wallenwein
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9568.htm

Funny movie from Gold equals Money

(-: Even Mario gets it, why all other is sleeping? :-)

EUR/USD, Silver, HUI

EUR/USD finally hits 1.50.60+ :)

Silver is going balistic and is $19+

Gold is $960+

HUI and normal stocks are generally up too.

Readings...

Citigroup VIEs Raise Question Of Solvency by Michael Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/citigroup-vies-raise-question-of.html

More on Gold Stocks versus Gold Bullion by Steve Saville
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9562.htm

OT : CASEY Research - Gold Mining Shares have Lagged Because:
http://honestmoneyreport.com/forum/index.php?topic=9200.0;topicseen

Marc Faber talking about 'BUBBLES'
http://goldequalsmoney.blogspot.com/2008/02/marc-faber-talking-about-bubbles.html
http://goldequalsmoney.blogspot.com/2008/02/marc-faber-talking-about-bubbles-part-2.html

Marc Faber Predicts More Corrections and is Bullish on Gold
http://goldequalsmoney.blogspot.com/2008/02/marc-faber-predicts-more-corrections_26.html
http://goldequalsmoney.blogspot.com/2008/02/marc-faber-predicts-more-corrections.html

2008-02-26

EUR/USD - finally some sense

8h chart of EUR/USD - we have almost clear uptrend.
Lets hope we will see one more pullback, so we can enter long.

On the lower side, we see higher lows.
Support is around 1.44.50 (must be around 1.45.00 already)

On the upper side, we see higher highs, but clearly 1.49.50 is important resistance.

U.S. confident Congress will back IMF gold sales

U.S. confident Congress will back IMF gold sales
http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-32142520080226?sp=true

2008-02-25

Weekend song - Vengaboys :)

Venga bus is coming

Weekend readings list.

Note I did not read any of this - will do later :)

Precious Points: The Bubble Inside the Bubble by Oroborean
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9553.htm

Gold's Hypnotic Price Target and the Outlook for PM Shares by Clif Droke
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9546.htm

Could Gold Mimic Platinum's Move? by Mike Paulenoff
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9543.htm

HUI Upleg Structure by Adam Hamilton
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9535.htm

Inflation: America's Greatest Export by Peter Schiff
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9531.htm

2008-02-20

Very good deflation article

Inflating Away Debt by Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/inflating-away-debt.html

Very interesting article. This does not mean I agree with it, but surely is conviencing.

Suppose you want to spend more money this month than your income. This situation is called a "budget deficit". So you borrow. The amount you borrowed (and now owe) is called your debt. You have to pay interest on your debt. If next month you don't have enough money to cover your spending (another deficit), you must borrow some more, and you'll still have to pay the interest on the loan. If you have a deficit every month, you keep borrowing and your debt grows. Soon the interest payment on your loan is bigger than any other item in your budget. Eventually, all you can do is pay the interest payment, and you don't have any money left over for anything else. This situation is known as bankruptcy.

Why The Fed Cannot Inflate Consumer Debt Away?
  • The Fed cannot put dollars in everyone's pocket.
  • The Fed cannot create jobs.
  • The Fed cannot force consumers with no money to buy houses to drive prices back up.
  • The Fed cannot change consumer attitudes towards debt and spending.
  • The Fed cannot force businesses to go on hiring sprees.
  • The Fed cannot force wages to rise.
  • The Fed cannot do anything about global wage arbitrage.

Why the I.M.F. Believes the 400 tonnes of Gold it wants to Sell is its Own!

Why the I.M.F. Believes the 400 tonnes of Gold it wants to Sell is its Own! by Julian D. W. Phillips
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9512.htm

2008-02-19

Better get a bigger container

Think problems are well contained? - Better get a bigger container by Mike Larson:
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/02/better-get-bigger-container.html
(also including information for Credit Swiss)

Vasil Levski

Today is "Vasil Levski day".

(Translation is not good, but there is no better translation)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasil_Levski

Northern Rock is ... nationalizated :)

Northern Rock takeover marks risky bet for U.K.
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page94?oid=193996&sn=Detail

Comment from someone:

Translation: The bank is insolvent.

The Central Bank will print as much money as necessary to make the depositors believe the bank is not. The depositors will say, 'Everything's OK', for now, but it is not... way not, as we know.

Dollar Close to Correction

Dollar Close to Correction by Boris
http://borisc.blogspot.com/2008/02/dollar-approaching-correction-point.html

Look @ my stock portfolio gains

My gold/energy stock portfolio is currently up 8%

This is breakdown of my gains:

Grow        =  76%
Speculation = 13%
Dividends = 11%
Total gains = 100%


Looks like dividends are important :-)

Deflation vs Inflation

Shedlock vs. Schiff: Rumble in the Economic Jungle by Fake Ben
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9507.htm
Deflation vs Inflation, also Oil price.

Bulgarian post

"Вечно замразяване" грози цените на храните в Русия
("Price control forever" on food prices in Russia)
http://www.investor.bg/?id=59918

2008-02-18

America Debt Free

America Debt Free by 2013

Weekend readings

Posting here do not means I agree with all these :-)

Precious Points: Bull Markets in Metals by Oroborean
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9499.htm

Credit Insurers Must Keep AAA Rating or Else by Robert McHugh
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9491.htm

15% by Angelo Campione
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9484.htm
(did not read it yet but looks promicing)

Shadows of the CDS Market

Shadows of the CDS Market by Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/shadows-of-cds-market.html

If you do not want to read it, at least check the image: :-)

Hmmm US Bank Reserves II

http://nmmmnu.blogspot.com/2008/02/hmmm-us-bank-reserves.html

Looks like the situation is because of the FED auctions.
If you wanna more information, check Jim Puplava show here:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

Uncle Jay Explains the ... Presidential Day

EUR/USD view for week FEB/18/2007

I. Notes:

Because the market is real mess now, this time I will do some long term view, and will give no special recommendations :)

I also will include USD/JPY, because at this point this couple is more clear for trading.


II. USD index:

Weekly:This picture is unchanged for monts. Upper blue line is long term resistance. Brown line is old wedge support. The second blue line is probably the support of the USD downtrend. I say "probably" because is not clear where exactly this line must be placed, also there is no confirmation for exact same line in EUR/USD. The pink line is short term support.

Daily:The pink line from weekly chart is the support here, shown in blue. The figure looks like a triangle, so the price may fall much next weeks. However this is unclear.

III. EUR/USD weekly:
Same wedge/parallel channel here. The resistance is not shown, but is there :-)
Note the pink line. EUR raised 3 times, but was unable to break it.

IV. USD/JPY 2 days chart:
On USD/JPY front, we see that the USD decline since several weeks. Channel is almost perfect. At the moment USD raising to the upper boundary of the channel. However it may be a wedge too. In order to go long, we will need to see break on pink line, which will indicate there is NO wedge.

V. Summary:

This is almost the same as I wrote 3 weeks ago:

I believe FED will cut more, US stockmarket, Gold, Oil, EUR will raise. However in short term we will could see a dollar rally.

I still think EUR is just a paper, but as I said before, FED is in panic mode now and will sacrifice the dollar, in order to save stockmarket and to avoid recession and deflation. Of course I do not believe we will see deflation except in housing sector, I also believe the US will fall into a recession anyway. But I still believe US stockmarket will raise in USD terms because of inflation and money printing.

Happy week and happy trade!

2008-02-12

A Closer Look At the Oil Market

Interesting article:
A Closer Look At the Oil Market by bonddad
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/02/closer-look-at-oil-market.html

Kitco - Gold mania barometer.

Unfortunately, "the barometer" failed to make new high. We will see if the down line will act as support, but clearly the upper line is like resistance.

Actualy this is not bad, because if we are correct - price stays ~900 and mania is not even began, that is good.

Gold reserves to hit sale block

The International Monetary Fund says it plans to sell gold from its reserves, and the announcement at the Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Tokyo confirmed those moves could come as early as April. The maneuver widely is understood to be aimed at an IMF goal of depressing the price of gold worldwide. The IMF goal appears to be to shove the price of gold back down into the $500 per ounce range, Bolser told WND in an exclusive telephone interview. Bolser said a secondary goal is for the IMF to gain control of as much of the world's gold reserves as possible. "This grab of IMF sovereign gold held in central banks around the world matches what the Federal Reserve did in 1934 when the Treasury grabbed U.S. citizen's wealth after a long and debilitating depression created by the Fed through excessive lending," Bolser said. "I don't expect an instantaneous market reaction to the IMF’s announcement this weekend," Bolser cautioned. "The IMF will make it appear as if the news didn't have any effect." "But don't make any mistake about it," he continued. "The price of gold is now under assault from the IMF gold sale announcement and this weekend's disclosure was just the first wave." "The IMF wants push the price of gold to $500 or below," he said, "and right now is not the time to be long holding gold." In his subscription newsletter for Monday, Bolser reported that Goldman Sachs is stating internally that gold will stay where it is for the next 90 days, then fall dramatically in price, an analysis which support's Bolser’s analysis of the IMF announcement to sell gold.
http://worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=56180

Thanks Laura :)

2008-02-11

Bjorn Lomborg on Global Warming

Video of Bjorn Lomborg, author of book "Cool it" on global warming:
http://video.google.com/videohosted?docid=-8730688320934276492

Weekend readings

IMF Sales Don't Change Anything by Boris Sobolev
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9445.htm
(still not read this)

Uncle Sam Crying "Uncle!" by Antal E. Fekete
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9433.htm
(still not read this, friend said is good)

The Mother of all Bubbles by Peter Schiff
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9426.htm

HUI Leverage to Gold 4 by Adam Hamilton
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9424.htm

Inflation Killed by Recession! And Other Lies to Destroy Your Money by Adrian Ash
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9423.htm

Gold Traders see thru ECB's "Smoke and Mirrors" by Gary Dorsch
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9420.htm

Gift Card Sales Backfire by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/231700177/gift-card-sales-backfire.html

Now Accepting Gold And Silver by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/231821630/now-accepting-gold-and-silver.html

Sentiment Signs Says US$ Will Rally by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/231301853/sentiment-sign-says-us-will-rally.html

Treasury Market Bubble? from The Bonddad Blog
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/02/treasury-market-bubble.html

What Inflation? from The Bonddad Blog
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2008/02/what-inflation_07.html

IMF Gold sale

I assume you know the story already.

Rummors suggest China to be the buyer.

China even can exchange the US paper debt to Gold, what better deal than that :-)

Ke Report:
http://www.kereport.com/WeekendSpecial/WS020908-1.mp3

This is from 31.jan.2008:
http://www.gata.org/node/4761

also - from 08.feb.2008:
http://www.gata.org/node/5986

An YouTube video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9cLDTbwYKc

2008-02-08

Weekend song - Diana Express

One of my favorite Bulgarian bands - Diana Express, with one of my favorite songs from 1980's.

2008-02-05

USD index

An falling channel in USD index, same in EUR/USD.
We will see.

The world stop spinning :)

World economy slow down. Soon the earth will stop spins :-)

WTI Cushing Spot 88.65 -1.37 -1.52 12:11

Gold is $888

US stocks down 2.2% - see Dow YTD chart:

Looks like only the USD is up...
So Bernanke, are you ready to cut again?

Meanwhile:

I bought some more GLD @ 87.75(will buy more @ 85) - I don't buy theory gold will be down to $670. Maximum downsize I see is $780-800.

I have order for PBR @ 100 (and will buy more @ ~95 or ~90).
Hopefully $100 order will be filled tomorrow.

2008-02-03

Hmmm?!?!? US Bank Reserves

I try to format it better. However I can not.
Copy/Paste to Notepad or Word. In Word change font to "courier".

If you can not copy, see the image at the end.


                                  Reserves of depository institutions                           Other borrowings of depository institutions  

                                                                                                       from the Federal Reserve, NSA         

                          --------------------------------------------------          Term    -----------------------------------------------

                                                                                     auction                                                 

      Date              total(2)    non-        required      excess    Monetary     credit,       total     primary   secondary     seasonal

                                 borrowed(3)                  NSA(4)     base(5)       NSA                                                   

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                                                                                             

 2 weeks ending(7)                                                                                                                           

  2007-Dec.  5             43993       43794       42170        1822      824857                     199         158           0           41

            19             40834       37001       39666        1168      822014                    3833        3798           2           34

                                                                                                                                             

  2008-Jan.  2             44040        8733       41647        2393      824534       30000        5308        5286           0           21

            16             41574         198       39864        1710      820879       40000        1377        1371           0            6

            30p            41639       -8751       40179        1460      821298       50000         390         385           0            5


Can't copy?
Click on image...

2008-02-02

Microsoft Panics, Overpays For Yahoo

Microsoft Panics, Overpays For Yahoo by Mish

Well, this is some article I strongly disagree.

Yes, Google is better search engine, but Yahoo has lots of value - their e-mail is most popular free e-mail, and Yahoo Finance is best "Finance" site. Lots of people go to Yahoo page every day, not to search, but they just "visiting".

It is obvious Microsoft can not buy Google, so why not get Yahoo ;) . Price is high now, but see Yahoo price 2 weeks ago.

I do not like MSFT, nor Yahoo, nor Google.
However if I was Microsoft I would do the same.

According to Alexa, this is how "top internet sites" are ranked:

1. Yahoo.com
2. Google.com (includes GMail.com domain)
3. YouTube.com (own by Google)
4. Live.com (Microsoft)
5. MSN (Microsoft)

Of cource this is calculated by Alexa toolbar, but anyway real situation is similar.

Final words
I would not invest in any technology shares right now, but Microsoft must, because what they do is accuiring a company, in order to get better "Internet market" share etc.

2008-02-01

Misc

WTI Cushing Spot - $ 88.91 good place to buy,
but same time PBR is rising, but still off from where I sold it ($114).

USD high, EUR - down ~1.48, Gold - down much - $905.

My order list-

PBR @ 100
GLD @ 78.50
YHOO @ 20 , but order is for today only.

I also already mal-invested EUR/USD long 1.48.90 :-)

Weekend song - Upsurt, Zvezdata

Upsurt - "The Star" - Some Bulgarian rap :)

EUR 4h

Looks bullish to me even the drop to 1.48.30
Update: Hmmm. Now we have lower low.