2008-01-31

Minyanville

Oil: A Slippery Subject

Trade

Sold my PBR @ 114 - was made yesterday on the peak.

WTI Cushing Spot 92.33

So may be I will be able to buy it again soon?

The Gold Drivers 2005 report

An interesting article.
I do not agree Dow will fall to 5000, nor gold will go to $1000 only, but is still interesting to read.
The Gold Drivers 2005 report

2008-01-30

We got half point

FED cut 0.50%.
Cut discount rate too.
EUR, Dow, Gold - up.

Whoever bought - congrats :-)

Important comments from me :)

FED rate cut question/discussion:
http://borisc.blogspot.com/2008/01/attraction-points_30.html

Market sleeping ahead of Fed rate decision

Some headlines from today:
(yes there is no link, just article name)

Stocks Slip Ahead of Fed Decision- AP
Gold slips in light trade ahead of Fed rate decision - Orange

Wal-Mart Reduces Prices & Offers 0% Interest

Wal-Mart Reduces Prices & Offers 0% Interest by Michael Shedlock @ Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/wal-mart-reduces-prices-offers-0.html

Eventual FED cut today

+----------+--------------+-------+------------------+
: Rate cut : USD reaction : Pips : Buy :
+----------+--------------+-------+------------------+
: 0.75 : down much : 70+ : buy imediately :
: 0.50 * : down small : 30-50 : wait for retrace :
: 0.25 : up small : 30-50 : buy imediately :
: 0.00 : up much : 70+ : buy imediately :
+----------+--------------+-------+------------------+

* 0.50% is expected.

2008-01-29

2008-01-27

EUR/USD view for week JAN/28/2007

I. Important news from the week:

1. FED cut 3/4 % in non scheduled meeting. A fiscal stimulus was proposed too, at the moment it will be $300-400 tax back.

2. Market continues down, but may be formed a bottom.

3. Market expects fed to cut 1/2 % in their scheduled meeting on 30st JAN.

4. Gold hits $924 :-)

5. Crude correcting ~$92, because there are recession worries. I never understood that, but this is the game rules :-)

II. EUR/USD weekly:Here we finally see EUR tested the old wedge (brown) and bounce from it (I know the line is not very precisely drawn). Now EUR must continue high.

Because parallel channel has broken upper line, I may suggest two target possibilities - the two blue lines.

III. EUR/USD 1 day chart:No lines here, but we see higher lows and lower highs. This is a triangle. I believe this triangle will be broken on the top this week, and we will see 1.49 at first time.

Note that price go to upper triangle boundary, so we will see 1.48 "for sure".

IV. EUR/USD 1 hours chart:This chart is attached, because as you see short-term EUR/USD is mess. All we can see are higher highs and higher lows. Unfortunately I can not see any reliable trendlines.

V. Summary:

I believe FED will cut more, US stockmarket, Gold, Oil, EUR will raise.

I still think EUR is just a paper, but as I said before, FED is in panic mode now and will sacrifice the dollar, in order to save stockmarket and to avoid recession and deflation. Of course I do not believe we will see deflation except in housing sector, I also believe the US will fall into a recession anyway. But I still believe US stockmarket will raise in USD terms because of inflation and money printing.

Happy week and happy trade!

2008-01-25

Societe Generale part II

Development here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080125/ap_on_bi_ge/france_societe_generale

Links

Added link to Bloomberg Energy prices on the left.

Weekend song - Edna Bulgarska Roza

Edna Bulgarska Roza (One Bulgarian Rose) sing by Pasha Hristova
I wanted to post this loooong ago, but could not found it on youtube.
So looks like someone did nice slide show too.
The story of the singer Pasha Hristova is very interesting too,
but unfortunately I don't have a way to do it here.

Kitco - Gold mania barometer.

We have high interest right now.
In case you do not know what is it, click on the tag below.

2008-01-24

EUR/USD levels

1.47.78 is high from week ago.
Next level - 1.48.25
Fibonacci levels are unclear for now.

French bank Societe Generale says hit by $7.1 billion fraud

"Some" arrogant bank, hit by mysterious trader :-)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080124/bs_nm/socgen_dc_6

Misc trades...

Sold part of PBR position. Hopefuly will buy it back very soon.

Closed my EUR/USD possitoin @ 1.47.25, will look to enter @ 1.47.10 again.

And correction - the other day I bought some GLD too, order was filled later.
Looks like market made bottom yesterday.

2008-01-22

Panic

Ok, I see you expecting this post, even some friends asked me, why I did not post this.
FED is panicking now:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, slashed a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday and indicated further rate cuts were likely.
The surprise reduction in the federal funds rate from 4.25 down to 3.5 percent marked the biggest funds rate cut on records going back to 1990.
...
In addition to cutting the funds rate, the Fed said it was reducing its discount rate, the interest it charges to make direct loans to banks, by a similar three-quarters of a percentage point, pushing this rate down to 4 percent.
Stockmarket is still down.
EUR and commodity stocks are up.

I bought stocks all day, first some Bulgarian stocks (ATERA, SFARM), then PBR.
I also try to buy some GLD, but it do not hit my trigger.

2008-01-21

Weekend song - Улыбка (Smile)

This week, because of Mr.Putin visit in Bulgaria,
you will get - children song Улыбка (Smile). Alexander loves it...
(has no way to post it in the weekend)

No EUR/USD analysis this week.

Because I was travelling in the weekend, No EUR/USD analysis this week.

Probably will do tomorrow.

2008-01-18

2008-01-17

Platinum

Very good article on platinum:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9247.htm

Oil and Gold link on the left

I just made a small program that pool Oil and Gold quote from my broker and put it on the site.

Don't expect is clear HTML, because is WAP, but as long as I see, there are no ptoblem with Internet Explorer and Mozilla.

What made my page unique and important?
- Price delay is NO MORE THAN 15 sec (not minutes or hours)

BoE's Gieve expects 'sharp rise' in UK inflation in coming months

This is so bearish for UK economy and bullish for the GBP :-)
See also red - what the idiots thinks...


- LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Bank of England (BoE) deputy governor John Gieve warned of a 'sharp rise' in inflation in the UK over the coming months, complicating the job of rate-setters at a time when the credit crunch has diminished growth prospects.

In a speech to the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gieve said the big rise in recent months of world oil and food prices, amplified by the sharp fall in the pound, is coming through in food, petrol, gas and electricity prices.

'These are likely to raise our inflation rate well above target in the coming months at a time when short-term inflation expectations remain uncomfortably high,' he said.

Tuesday's figures showed the annual CPI inflation rate unchanged at 2.1 pct and still above the BoE's 2.0 pct target.

At the same time, growth is being undermined by the credit crunch, which under normal circumstances 'greatly strengthened' the case for the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to ease policy.

'These are testing times for the MPC,' said Gieve, who surprised sterling markets by voting for a reduction in borrowing costs in November, alongside arch-dove Danny Blanchflower -- a month before rates were actually reduced a quarter point to 5.50 pct.

The MPC is widely tipped to cut its benchmark Bank rate another quarter point in February to 5.25 pct.

'In reaching our decisions, the MPC always looks not just at the central projection for the economy but at the risks on either side. That will require not just difficult judgements but careful explanations in the months ahead,' said Gieve.

pan.pylas@thomson.com

pp/pp/am


COPYRIGHT


Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.

Oil price

COILH8 90.13-90.2
WTIG08 91.34-91.42

2008-01-16

Explanation

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The euro fell sharply on dovish comments from a euro zone central banker, before hitting support levels and appearing to stabilise at weaker levels.

Yves Merkel, Luxembourg central bank chief and member of the European Central Bank, said in an interview that 'there are factors that mitigate inflation risks' and suggested the ECB could 'look through' temporary high levels of inflation to the growth risks beyond.

The downside risks to the euro zone economy have increased, he signalled.

'Yves Mersch's transformation from hawk to dove has amazed the market,' said Peter Wadkins at Thomson IFR Markets.

'The market realizes this is a sea-change in policy, and the implications are enormous,' he added, predicting that ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet will also reveal a more dovish tone in the days to come.

Markets have previously understood the ECB would not cut interest rates for some time, due to inflation concerns.

...

A comment in ANTI-SOPITALIST blog

Thanks For Being With Us (January 15, 2008 recap)


Dear Daveo,

FOMC meeting is 2 weeks from now, so Fed needs to be careful of surprise cut beforehand as they need to use their limited ammunition carefully and effectively.

A good time for them to do this would be on Friday, Options day and also the day BenDover testifies.

They still need to see the CPI data tomorrow and discuss before making the decision, so rate-cut is not probable tomorrow. It could happen, it's just not something I would say is 'likely'.

If market sells of aggressively Wed and Thurs, to the point of the panic/capitulation, then the chance of surprise cut on Fri goes up.

Oil price

COILH8 88.55-88.62
WTIG08 89.77-89.85


This time the fall is understandable:
US Crude Oil Inventories +4259 (expected -6736)


Bought PBR @ 100 USD

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart

Chart suggested by friend. Brown line is made by me, in same logic as blue line.
Posting this do not mean I agree with the chart ;)

The Babylon Tower

The Tower of Babel Indicator by Matt McCracken

2008-01-15

EUR/USD view for week JAN/14/2007

EUR/USD view for week JAN/14/2007

This week, the weekly view will be short, also I am writing this in Thursday.
As you may know, at the moment the market expect 0.50% rate cut, before (!!!) the FOMC meeting. Then some "experts" expect FED to cut another (!!!) 0.25%.

EUR/USD 1 day chartHere we see the old wedge in blue. The USD failed to test it @ 1.42. There are also a brown channel up. However, it failed to make new high - old was 1.49.66.

This looks to me as double top, but everything depends what will happen next couple of days.

Possible bearish scenario is to see 1.45 (brown) testing.

EUR/USD 4h chartHere we see same brown channel, and there are a small channel up (blue). Current fall may go there - 1.46.90, or may stop on pink line 1.47.40.

EUR/USD 1h chartHere trendline colors are not "related" to preivious charts.
I am not sure if we had this mini channel (brown), but is broken. Pink line is hypotetical, ASSUMING we hit bottom 20 min ago.

Once again, according to previous chart targets are 1.46.90 or 1.47.40.
Happy week and happy trade :-)

Credit Card Time Bomb Is Ticking Away

Credit Card Time Bomb Is Ticking Away by Michael "Mish" Shedlock

Gold 4h

With USD raise, gold is down $10 for the moment. First support is ~ $890.

Oil price

COILH8 = 90.35-90.42
WTIG08 = 91.25-91.33


PBR @ $105

2008-01-14

Some weekend articles from SafeHaven

Kitco - Gold mania barometer.

No major change.
If you do not know what this is, click on "Gold mania barometer" tag below.

Gold over 900

I was unable to post this earlier, but as I always said -
One day we will woke up and will see the Gold @ 900.
Then there will be 2 kind of investors - one who have gold and one who don't.

Current price is $ 911 :-)

2008-01-11

Marc Faber @ Bloomberg

Marc Faber interview at Bloomberg
Gloomy as usual :-)

Idiots and oil price...

What I said yesterday?

Economy slowing, oil will fall...

COILH8 90.65-90.73
WTIG08 92.39-92.47

Wait until fall to 80-81 and buy.

Wake up...

Yesterday, I listen to the radio, and they said:
"today gold hit all time high, because the dollar fall again"

Today, a colege said:
"You invested in gold, how I can do the same?"

The public slowly wake up...

Peak Oil

A must "see the charts":
Peak Oil and Beyond by Doug Casey

Countrywide

Yesterday, here I recommended Countrywide. I said - if they do not get broke, they will double. Well now - next day they rose from $5 to $8 dollars - 60% profit.
(well I am not stupid so I did not take the trade)

2008-01-09

I love this

Earn - Save - Invest
Which comes first?

Palladium usage

thanks to troy, now I know what the palladium usage is:

http://www.stillwatermining.com/endUses.html

Gold 4h

I never liked technical analysis on Gold spot, but here support is obvious, at least for the moment.

List of highly speculative stocks.

CFC - real estate. If they do not fell in bankruptcy, price will double :-)
PLG - Platinum play, buy under 3.50 USD
MAI . Toronto Exchange (Canada) - gold miner, buy at market price.
EPZ . Venture Exchange (Canada) - gold miner, buy under 1.60 CAD.


this is not a trade advice, in fact is highly speculative ;)

Market Does Not Believe Countrywide's Denial

First major is on the way...
Market Does Not Believe Countrywide's Denial

2008-01-07

Flight to gold as investors lose faith in money

An article in Telegraph.co.uk:Flight to gold as investors lose faith in money

Penn West

PWE may botomming,
or may doing bearish flag!?!?

Petro Brasiliero

With oil hammered again,

COILG8 - $94.69
WTIG08 - $95.37

PBR spiked down, and broke the short term support (blue).
now, the brown lines may be in play. I personally may buy @ 100.

Q Logick and Santa Claus

QLGC failed to do gap filling.
It is on the support now, and probably may raise again.
We will see.

A picture from Muenchen

Kriminelle Ausländer raus!!!
(translation: Criminal foreigners out)
Looks like we need to leave München :-)

Some pictures from Austria / Germany

Some pictures from Austria and Germany

Kitco - Gold mania barometer.

Kitco website traffic update.
It is more than 1 mo ago when gold hit $750, but is way down that in $740 back in 2006


If this is first time you see this:
Gold mania barometer

M3 for EURozone

I tried to find exact figure, but I can not. So I will give you the figure I heard:

So M3 for eurozone is...
13%
Can you believe it?
I wrote before about it and I can.

The EUR/USD poll is removed

Now we know the EUR/USD high was "only" 1.49.66

With recent EUR/USD @ 1.47, will EUR hit 1.50 USD until (2007) year end

The answers:
YES - 60% (wrong answer)
NO - 40% (correct answer)


As you may know I personally voted "NO" :)

EUR/USD - daily and weekly

EUR/USD - 1 dayWe have a bottom in place - 1.43. I thought the bottom should be @ 1.42, but it bounced before that.
The old uptrend (blue lines) is broken.
We may have double top forming, however I do not believe it.


EUR/USD - 1 weekHere we have master trend - blue line, the old wedge is now support (brown). The brown support was tested (1.43) and we hopefuly have bottom in place.
We could or could have not a double top (orange).
Note upper blue line. Current price is ABOVE the line. This means the upper blue line is NOT a resistance, at least not yet.

More important articles (from safehaven.com)

Nominal Gold & Gold-Oil Ratio by Gary Tanashian
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9147.htm


Mega Move Underway, Stay With It by Aden sisters
Speaking of Gold and Oil in EUR.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9152.htm


A "Head and Shoulders" Top for the Dow Jones Industrials by Gary Dorsch
(I do not think this is H&S)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9154.htm


Eyes Wide Shut by Peter Schiff
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9149.htm

EURO data

EURO data unchanged...
we are done for today.

Some importatnt articles (by Michael Shedlock)

Unemployment Soars as Private Sector Jobs Contract by Michael Shedlock:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/211209427/unemployment-soars-as-private-sector.html

Asymmetrical Unwind of the Credit Bubble by Michael Shedlock:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/211778151/asymmetrical-unwind-of-credit-bubble.html

Housing Potpourri Around The World by Michael Shedlock
http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/211952837/housing-potpourri-around-world.html

Final Forex Profit Evaluation for Year 2007

FINAL YEAR 2007 EVALUATION

year 2007 - 352%

EUR/USD Open - 1.33.35
EUR/USD Close - 1.45.80
EUR/USD Change - 8.50%


YTD ALPHA - 352 - 8.50 = 343.50 %

Forex Profit Evaluation for DEC-2007

DEC-2007 - 14.40%
(percent is low, because I traded with 20.DEC)
YTD - about 494%
EUR/USD YTD - 1.19 - 1.47 = ~28%
YTD ALPHA - 494 - 28 = 466%

Citi is no go

Citi is worse as I thought...

I'm back

OK, I am back to work ;-)