2007-11-30

A Tidal Wave by Puru Saxena

A Tidal Wave - Puru Saxena on gold, silver and minning stocks:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8915.htm

Forex Profit Evaluation for NOV-2007

OCT-2007 - 34.28%
(percent is low, because I traded with more money than usual)
YTD - about 480%
EUR/USD YTD - 1.19 - 1.47 = ~28%
YTD ALPHA - 480 - 28 = 452%

Weekend song :-)


The blue wagon - Russian children song from 1970's,
This is not the original, but a remix.

The war in Iraq

Credit bubble all over again

Two very important articles:

Where's the Cash?

and

Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance!

2007-11-29

Traders are idiots

This is lots of fun:
To cut in order dollar to go up...


LONDON (Thomson Financial)
The dollar held onto its earlier gains against other major currencies, helped by a rise in stocks and the view that a likely US rate cut next month will keep the economy from a hard landing.

US stocks rose strongly overnight after the Federal Reserve's vice chairman Donald Kohn indicated that rates would be cut in December, despite the hawkish rhetoric from other Fed officials.

GBP/JPY

As per old broken wedge, now first target is 222, then if not bounced, much lower...

EUR/USD - 2 hour chart

The triangle I promiced to write is here. Also meanwhile, in the night, we have fallen to the bottom, and couple of minutes ago EUR hit 1.47.35, which supposed the be the bottom. May be we will see some tests of the bottom again, but generally the direction now is high.

2007-11-28

More dodgy business with GBP/JPY

A wedge is broken, on the correct side.
Currently we are on the parallel channel, which may be will be broken too.
From the other side, the JPY falling against everything,
so the rally in GBP is not a surprise.

EUR/USD - 4h

We have a triangle. Will post about it tomorrow.
About the bounce - posting is little bit late, since EUR bounced already to 1.48.57,
anyway what now - 1.48.80, then down again.

Crude oil

Crude on weekly chart.
We may see $90 again, before raise to #100-110+

There is something like double top on daily chart (not shown here),
but second top is higher, so I do not think it will fall at all.

2007-11-27

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart

Master support is in brown.
Blue lines show small parallel upper channel.
Target remains up - 1.39.60 (not seen here)

Esperanza Silver

As per my wishlist, I bought Esperanza Silver @ 1.90 CAD
We will see if I am correct about them.

2007-11-26

Carry trade with USD.

Today, I checked (but not read fully) an article how traders get loans in USD, convert it to EUR, AUD or different currency, and invest it on the market, betting that the USD will be down at the time they need to close the loan.

It makes sence, since let say you got 5M USD from FED at their discount rate ~5%. Later, the discount rate is cut more, so you owe less. Also the USD get debase, and if let say it debase 5%, you owe no interest in the other currency.

Those money, can be invested in non US markets, simply because the US market is denominated in USD. So we may expect markets crash all over the world if USD raly from here.

:-)

Dodgy business with GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 week chart:
H&S formation still here, however due to high volatility and extremly high carry-trade interest (paid 70 EUR for 150K per day last week) - do not enter short.
GBP/JPY 4h chart:

a wedge is formed, also is broken to the "correct" side. Now - 237 - 238 is the target. Once again - do not trade it, do not trade it, do not trade it :)

Shopping wish list

MAI.TO - MINERA ANDES - enter now ~ 1.60
EPZ.V - ESPERANZA SILVER CORPORATION - enter now ~ 1.90
SSRI - Silcer standard - no idea of entering - 38-40

2007-11-25

Subprime video


A must see video for credit derivatives investments ;)

EUR/USD view for week NOV/26/2007

Hi,
There will be no publication this week, since there are not much change from last week. The only difference, is that now I am bullish on EUR, since it keep hitting new highs. Will post some charts very soon or tomorrow.
However trade carefully because we can see reversal very soon, but probably not this week.
Happy week and happy trading.

EUR/USD - 4h chart
parallel channel up.

EUR/USD - 1h chart
"almost" :-) parallel channel up.

Also note the upper thin line (not the blue one), that is broken. This is the line from the parallel channel which I call "old wedge". It was broken Friday, but I can not do any estimations, since it is on weekly chart. Anyway, we will see where market go, and will do better estimation

Credit crunch

2007-11-20

EUR/USD - 2 hour chart

Even we hit new all time high, RSI and MACD show bearish divergence.
Also, the figure is wedge (do I see wedges all around? :-) )

EUR/USD - 1.48

Instead to go down, EUR/USD raised to new all time high - 1.48.13.

This prove that our analysis is wrong.

Currently the price is ~1.47.80. I still believe it will go down,
but we need to see where it will go.
Fibonacci gives - 1.47.45 as good entry, then 1.47.25, then 1.47.05.

2007-11-19

EUR/USD - 1 hour chart

If you trade the gap - congrats. I did not.
Now we revise the downtrend channlel.
If it again go out, then probably the channel is wrong :-)

Liberty dollar video

FBI / Liberty dollar video

2007-11-18

EUR/USD view for week NOV/19/2007

Not much things changed since last week...

I. Important news from the week:

1. Gold correcting ($785)

2. Market correcting, while JPY raise (unwinding carry trade).


II. As I wrote before:
FED blew it!!! They totally destroyed the dollar in long term. I think they will inflate now, and stock market will go higher and higher, but only in nominal terms.
GOT GOLD :-)


III. The parallel uptrend (old wedge):

EUR/USD 1 week chart:
No change, price is inside the channel, probably will go down. In case it go up, it will not show some significant new high.

EUR/USD 4 hours chart:
For the moment this is just a potential H&S, but we will see.

EUR/USD 1 hours chart:
Here is the "speculative" chart. This chart was done Friday.

Blue channel down - target is 1.46, because there we have longer term support (pink), then up.

Currently EUR/USD open up, with 20 pips gap. It is above the channel, but I think soon it will fell inside. I am still unsure if I will trade this gap. Better wait 1.46 and go long


IV. GBP/JPY H&S:

GBP/JPY 1 week chart:
No chart, but we still have huge H&S formation. Target is under 200.

Do not trade GBP/JPY. It is extremely volatile.


V. Summary:

I can say absolutely the same as previous week:

Generally USD will rise / NEUTRAL now, EUR to fall, but play carefully.

There is one very important thing that helping USD - everybody is against it, even supermodels like Gisele who demanded her contract to be in EUR :-)

Remember EUR is just a worthless paper as the USD is. Eurozone has own problems too. The only reason EUR go up against the USD is because Eurozone and ECB do not inflate as much as FED. Or may be they do now. Who knows. The inflation we see now, is actually from money supply increased 6 mo ago. So we do not know if ECB printing money or not.

There is only one real currency and is called GOLD. As you can see, gold rising against all currencies, not only against the USD. This may mean only one thing - inflation rising. Actually some people believes gold is bubble, but this is wrong opinion (will explain why I thing that some other time).

Happy week and trade!!!

2007-11-16

IMPORTANT ARTICLE for our American friends...

This come to my atention thanks to S. Randall.

Below is from Richard Russell's site.


Google has implemented a new feature which enables you to type a telephone number into the search bar and hit enter and you will be given the person's name and address. If you then hit Map, you will get a map to the person's house. Everyone should be aware of this! It's a nationwide reverse telephone book.

If a child gives out his/her phone number, someone can now look it up to find out where he/she lives. The safety issues are obvious, and alarming. Note that you can have your phone number removed or blocked. I tried my number and it came up along with the map and directions straight to our house. I did fill out the removal form for myself, and encourage all of you to do the same. This is quite scary.

Please look up your own number. In order to test whether your phone number is mapped, go to: Google http://www.google.com/) Type your phone number in the search bar (e.g. 555-555-1212) and hit enter. If you want to BLOCK Google from divulging your private information, simply click on your telephone number and then click on the Removal Form. Removal takes 48-hours.

Check your own number and although this may not apply to you if you have an unlisted number or cell phone as primary contact, you may know someone who needs to know this.

Please share this information with friends and family.

Bubble Bubble :)

A friend asked me about gold bubble.
Well, we are not there yet, see nasdaq bubble, in linear terms:

Here we see:
Nasdaq - blue line
Dow Jones - green line
S&P500 - red line.

As you may see, prices dropped after year 2000.

If you bought Dow or S&P500, back in year 2000, now you will be again on profit.
However if you bought Nasdaq, you still will be on 50% loss :-)

Unfortunately, I can not find gold chart 1990 - 2007, but there you will see that the raise is not that big. So we are not yet in the gold bubble :-)

I believe there will be gold bubble, but it will be when price go to 10,000.00 USD per OZ. Currently we are far away with the recent hit of 845 USD per OZ.

2007-11-15

GBP/JPY

I will never ever trade this again,
a stupid currency vs yet another stupid currency.
Every day you may expect 100 pips up, then 200 down, then another 300 up :)

Currensies

EUR/USD - down for now, will see how much, probably 1.45.90.
But I think we will need to wait for US data in couple of hours.

GBP/JPY - down, but hit our stop, so we end up to only 70 EUR profit
three days lost... whatever, at least is profit :)

2007-11-14

GBP/JPY and EUR/USD update

GBP/JPY 1hHere we have broken uptrend, current direction is probably down...


EUR/USD-30 minHere we have uptrend or wedge, currently the brown channel is in play. The purple candle is added soon after I captured the chart. We will need to wait how the things will develop.

2007-11-12

GBP/JPY update

The blue channel is not channel at all, but a wedge.
However we may see some more downside next few days.

EUR/USD update

EUR/USD price falls as expected, also broken the pink line. Now is half way down to 1.44.
Currently I see some raise in EUR. I expect EUR to go maximum to 1.45.95-1.46.05

EUR/USD view for week NOV/13/2007

I. Important news from the week:

1. EUR/USD hit 1.47.50, Gold passes 845 USD, CAD now "costs" 1.10 USD, GBP/USD = 2.10.

2. JPY rising against everything, but mostly against GBP and EUR.

3. "If USA want to debase their currency, we will respond" - French president Sarkozy said.


II. As I wrote before:

FED blew it!!! They totally destroyed the dollar in long term. I think they will inflate now, and stock market will go higher and higher, but only in nominal terms.
GOT GOLD :-)


III. The parallel uptrend (old wedge):

EUR/USD 4 days chart:
What we have here? Price go to upper channel line, even broke it for 1-2 hours, but then fall inside the channel.

Note (not shown) EUR is overbought on both weekly and monthly chart.

EUR/USD 1 days chart:
Here we have the channel I show last week. Price remained inside the channel ALL the time, even when hit 1.37.50. Now EUR need to go down at least to 1.46. If this level is broken, next target is brown line - 1.41

EUR/USD 4 hours chart:
Here is "speculative" chart. Unfortunately not so speculative right now. Target is 1.46. There are also a bearish wedge (not shown), with target down to about 1.45-1.42 - never checked exact target, but wedge is there.


IV. GBP/JPY H&S:

GBP/JPY 1 week chart:
I usually do not trade GBP, even it is probably better than EUR.
However, now we see something interesting here:
Here we have huge H&S formation. Target is under 200.
In case you play this, note you will pay huge ammount of overnight interest every day to your broker.
Note GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY open with a gap, I will probably trade it.


V. Summary:

I can say absolutely the same as previous week:

Generally USD will rise now, EUR to fall, but play carefully.

Remember EUR is just a worthless paper as the USD is. Eurozone has own problems too. The only reason EUR go up against the USD is because Eurozone and ECB do not inflate as much as FED. Or may be they do now. Who knows. The inflation we see now, is actually from money supply increased 6 mo ago. So we do not know if ECB printing money or not.

>>> I will add that French president Sarkozy said "If USA want to debase their currency, we will respond".
We still not know what this response will be, but is easy to imagine what he means.
Note I respect Sarkozy for what he done for Bulgarian doctors in Lybia, but we will see.


There is only one real currency and is called GOLD. As you can see, gold rising against all currencies, not only against the USD. This may mean only one thing - inflation rising. Actually some people believes gold is bubble, but this is wrong opinion (will explain why I thing that some other time).

Happy week and trade!!!

2007-11-09

Weekend song :-)

We will begin to post one song every Friday to you listen during the weekend :)
Will try to concentrate on songs not known in so called western world :)
We will see how this will work...

Katusha (Russia, ~1942), this performace is in Moskow, 09.MAY.2007

2007-11-08

Irational EUR/USD

EUR/USD just broke what we believed is the parallel channel, in pink. Could be false break, but we got too many false breaks lately...

Now the blue channel is in play, and we assume we have top formed.

Some of the figures (not shown) may be looked as bearish wedges (bullish for USD).

RSI and MACD give bearish divergenses on 1 hour and 4 hours chart. Daily chart is bearish for a week or two.

Gold which is important indicator for me made new high - $845, but was not able to hold there.

So we will see.

Brain wash

http://www.true-passion.de/index.php?cid=1845
a colege asked me - is this real or they just play.
i dont know...

2007-11-07

Poll results

I recently removed poll for real estate crisis in EU.
Results are - Spain and Bulgaria will be next after UK.
However there were few votes.

Some "things" priced in EUR

Since EUR/USD hits 1.47, lets see some indexes priced in EUR.
EUR/USD correction is due?
Gold in EUR:
HUI gold minners index in EUR:
DJIA in EUR:

Forex Profit Evaluation for OCT-2007

OCT-2007 - 95.47%
YTD - about 446%
EUR/USD YTD - 1.19 - 1.42 = ~16%
(EUR/USD YTD may be wrong)
YTD ALPHA - 446 - 16 = 430%

Dollar Slumps to Record on China's Plans to Diversify Reserves

Wonder why dollar hits 1.46.60 ?

Dollar Slumps to Record on China's Plans to Diversify Reserves

Alan Greenspan on FOX Business Network

Alan Greenspan on FOX Business Network

2007-11-06

Oil, Bulgaria and USA

Guess what Bulgaria exports to USA?

You will never guess... GASOLINE
We have very few mini Oil fields, probably is not enough for 5% of BG consumption, but we have several refineries.

So believe or not - We refine oil into gasoline for USA....

Oil pump near Devnia, BG

EUR/USD weekly

Inflection point coming, ... or not :)
in any case, the EUR USD went to upper channel boundary.
We may expect now EUR to go down to 1.43, 1.41 or even to 1.36.

2007-11-05

EUR/USD view for week NOV/05/2007

I. Important news from the week:
1. Bernanke and the helicopter squad cut the rate as expected with 1/4 %, also cut the discount rate with 1/4 %

2. Gold passes 800 USD mark. CAD now "costs" more than USD and trades 1.00 CAD = 1.05 USD.

3. USD continue down to sinkhole, EUR hits 1.45.28. Every time we think USD short term bottomed, we see another fall.

4. Everything rising, commodities, stocks etc.


II. As I wrote before:

FED blew it!!! They totally destroyed the dollar in long term. I think they will inflate now, and stock market will go higher and higher, but only in nominal terms.
GOT GOLD :-)


III. The parallel uptrend (old wedge):

EUR/USD 4 days chart:
What we have here?

Last week I had very high hope with the pink resistance line. However, as dollar falling into the sinkhole, the line was broken. May be this line will be the support we looking?

So, now, we have this blue resistance line (upper) which better not to be broken. Even on my chart EUR/USD price is on the line, because the line is freehand drawn, I believe the chart is incorrect so we may see 1.45.50 before we reach the resistance. Then I expect down, to the pink line, then up.

Note (not shown) EUR is overbought on both weekly and monthly chart.

EUR/USD 4 hours chart:
Here is "speculative" chart. We are on the top of the channel now we will go down, at least to 1.44.50 or even to 1.42.30.

Blue formation is bearish wedge, which may suggest the EUR will go down.

I do not think shorting EUR is wise.



IV. Summary:

Generally USD will rise now, EUR to fall, but play carefully.

Remember EUR is just a worthless paper as the USD is. Eurozone has own problems too. The only reason EUR go up against the USD is because Eurozone and ECB do not inflate as much as FED. Or may be they do now. Who knows. The inflation we see now, is actually from money supply increased 6 mo ago. So we do not know if ECB printing money or not.

There is only one real currency and is called GOLD. As you can see, gold rising against all currencies, not only against the USD. This may mean only one thing - inflation rising. Actually some people believes gold is bubble, but this is wrong opinion (will explain why I thing that some other time).

Happy week and trade!!!

2007-11-02

OT: Evaluation

Evaluation of profit will be done next week...

Gold is stable over $800

Unlike EUR, Gold is stable over $800.
Mining stocks are up, but still lagging.
I love it...

2007-11-01

Suspence is over

Suspence is over :-)

now we may getting a correction rally in USD...

Yen is uuuuuuuuuuuuuup today, 100+ pips on most of the currencies, but AUD is the leader - 200+ pips.

Stocks sell-off indexes 1+ % down, mostly for the yenn, and higher dollar.

Gold stands @ 790 USD. Looks like carryes sold all gold they have month ago.

Correction: Discount rate

Correction - Discount rate is also lowered with 0.25% to 5.00%