US Stock market / Gold cycles 1850 - 2013
US Stock market / Gold cycles and bank failures 1928 - 2024
Due that I all the time fund and withdrawing money from my forex account,
I can not have a way to say exact percentage.
MAY-2007 - between 33% to 42%
YTD - about 132%
EUR/USD YTD - 1.19 - 1.34 = ~11%
YTD ALPHA - 132 - 11 = 121%
On the chart we have "what suppose to be" part of the triangle - in blue. I said what suppose to be, becaus is drawn "freehand". Anyway, the line is somewhere there.
The channel from previous post - in pink was totaly broken today. Seems there are a new channel forming, still downtrend. The support (brown line) is the medium term suppoer of the declining channel back to 20.APR.2007, and the upper boundary is a new line (again brown), parallel to the support and medium term resistance - upper boundary of the triangle.
So what now?
A decline to 1.3422 then go to upper boundary of the triangle 1.3560. Those moves mus not be sharp, but we will see. Then probably raise to 1.36++. This decline and raise must occure this week or next.
For no reason, I expect the decline today evening or tomorrow morning in USA and Asia sessions.
First we will see 1 day chart of EUR/USD. We have brown long term support line. It go back to SEP.2006, which is not shown on the chart. We have blue resistance line, which forming a triangle. We are about to the bottom of the triangle, so generaly EUR must go up. Pink lines shows a down channel of EUR/USD where price currently it.
Here we are the 4 hour chart of EUR/USD. We have 2 downtrend channels here. Brown - this is formed of upper boundary of the triangle (blue from 1 h chart). The other downtrend is blue lines (pink lines on 1 h chart). There also seems to be support at 1.3410.
What is missing is the long term support from 1 day chart. The support is there, so we may expect another (or two) pullbacks to 1.3410 or 1.3400, and then the EUR will raise to at least to upper boundary of the triangle - 1.3560.
Now, our favorite USD index chart with the support and resistance that show something like wedge. We are not yet on the top. So there may be some more raise of USD index.
Next - Gold (measured in USD). We are on the support line. Gold could bounce from here (I believe so), or fall down to next support. We will see.
Finaly USD/CAD. USD falling in perfect channel.
Thats all for now, happy week and happy trade!
Today action in EUR/USD was nice, we did some profit, by buying @ 1.3430 !!! :) but we sold everything very early. Later we had 1.3500, then decline.
So back to the charts:
1 day - analysis stays the same. The long term support is close, but holding. Resistance lines are unchanged due we did not have any important high today.
I will mention again, we have a triangle - see brown and blue lines.
4 hours chart - nothing new too. Todays high @ 1.3500 looks lika a spike here, we can expect the price to fall to ~ 1.3410, before raise to upper boundary of the channel, OR before break the triangle on the 1 day chart.
In this case price will go to near 1.3690 and then 1.37 or more. However this scenario is for future play, not for the moment.
HAPPY 24 may !!! АБВГД !!!
This week, because of the great interest :) this time it will include USD/CAD and Gold.
First - Gold. Gold is the real money. Gold also is proxy of EUR. EUR and Gold usualy move in same direction. Because gold is measured in USD, is very important at the moment. Gold falled to the resistance (blue line), now gold will (must) go up. And because (if) gold is up, USD probably will go down, and EUR probably - up.
Second, our favorite chart - USD index, and the figure like a wedge. USD will (must) go up now, to the upper boundary of the wedge.
Now, EUR/USD - 1 day chart. EUR falled, and now is very close to the long term support (blue line). The support line is longer than I made it, it begin some more long time ago (hope you got what I mean) . We have declining resistance line (brown one), which forming a triangle. This triangle will be broken on the top, but we can not say when.
On 4 hour chart of EUR/USD, we see that we are in the middle of the channel. It is safe to buy EUR from the bottom of the channel - 1.3430, however I do not believe EUR will fall that much, we will see.
Finaly, the USD/CAD - 1 day chart. USD falling. It wanted to include 4 hour chart, but it shows same thing.
However, we may experiencing cup and handle (purple line), which means we will have sharp downtrend, but handle may raise some more first.
Other negative idea is, if we have double top. If so, we will first see 1.3660-1.3670, and only after then we can see how the development will be.
note that I do not trade this post
Will try to be in the IPO of FIB (First Investment Bank), a Bulgarian bank, so I withdrawal all my money from forex, banks etc.
Unless something very interesting happen in forex, "see" you in a week :)
Well EUR go little bit up. It was OK for me, to do some long profit (instead loss), but generaly, the pullback was nothing.
So once again, the our two favorite charts again ;)
First - weekly chart of USD index.
Trend is up, no matter how bearish on USD people are. It will go to 83.50 for sure, no matter what.
The trend is still up. We got rounded top as I "predicted".
We have small downtrend (brown channel), and two support lines - small one (pink) and long term one (blue).
Pink line could be broken, but could be not. Everything depends how you can draw it.
Blue support, we are not so far from it. Price is above both 50 and 200 day moving average as well.
What may happen, is the EUR/USD forming yet another big triangle in blue
(actualy, the triangle is quite formed already)
Finaly I need to say, there are some other bullish, but also bearish divergences, but they are now so mixed, that it could bring only confusion in the analysis.
Wow, now UK is the leader :-)
Forex situation is very strange. I expected strong bounce yesterday after FED %% news, but we got decline.
Today, we got almost no bounce after BOE increased the rate to 5.50.
I sold my positions today for 6% profit, and enter again later today, currently I am long.
So bottom could be:
- ~1.3530 - yellow line - support from recent "lower" lows.
- ~1.3505 - blue line - parallel to upper channel line. - I don't think so.
- ~1.3490 - pink line - support according recent lows - I like this, however we will see if people will "enable" the EUR to fall that much.
In all cases, I will accumulate EUR-os
- Famous support @ 80,
- Bounce from bottom trend line,
- Resistance line is far away,
- A figure similar to wedge,
- RSI is not oversold now, but is far from overbought,
- RSI and MACD bullish divergence.
I am wondering, shall I go long USD for next week...
1 day chart
Even the EUR raised in friday, and even we profit again, is clear that there is a correction going on now.
There are two support levels now, first at about 1.3530 (the friday low) and second must be located at ~1.3500 - 1.3495 . Even the channel show that we may see a raise to 1.3760, I do not think so, because...
the 4 hour chart
shows a downtrend, with resistance levels as following - 1.3605, and second @ 1.3630.
The support is @ 1.3520 and falling.
Is safe to wait the price to go down to 1.3520 or even to 1.35 and to buy from there, however, if as I wrote, we have rounded top, the price may fall verticaly to 1.34 - 1.33 !!! Clear calculation show objective of about 1.3350.
We need to wait till tuesday, and to see what the chart will bring us. I almost have idea what to do and how to trade, but I need to see an entry point. In all cases, I will use SMALL amount of money, so if the price go in wrong direction, I to be able to go out with small losses.
The EUR bounced from support at ~1.3538, now it hopefuly will go up to 1.36.
Interesting is that DeltaStock.bg, which opinion I respect very much see target of 1.3650 !?!?
I have no idea why they believe in this, but time will show.
I would like to close my positions before the weekend, but with profit. If possitions are on loss, I will keep them open.
30 min chart:
Same situation, but we can see that target is little bit less @ ~1.3595,
also small (for now) uptrend channel is forming.
Even I profit from falling dollar today again, I see some bearish things are forming in EUR/USD.
4 hour chart showing something like rounded top forming - in red.
The middle term upper channel - in pink is in tact,
but there could be new down trend channel - in blue.
We defenetly must see 1.3660 or more, in order to ignore the warning, that these figures and lines represent.
One day chart. We can see same rounded top forming. We can see the support @ 1.3250 from the triangle long time ago - in pink. EUR upper channel is in tact.
(not a) trading advice - accumulate EUR now, but do not accumulate too much of it, because the correction may be already began.
Something going on, probably a correction. The price "want" to go down, but the people do not let it. Anyway, till now, all (small) tops are lower than 1.3680, also we did not saw 1.36 from 2 days.
More on this - later.
For no reason (intuition) I expect - down.
Is very important, that, latest run to the upper boundary, actualy did not reach the boundary, but just 1.3680. I still not sure what this means, but we will see what will happen very soon.