EUR / USD view for next week.

In friday, we finaly noted the trend. Then same day, a huge bounce happend to 1.3399. This move "move" the price to upper channel boundary. Then, the EUR fall down and now market is closed on 1.3360.

From now, I expect the price to fall at least to lower boundary, or more. I will not short EUR, because it makes me feel uncomfortable :) , so I do not recommend anyone to do this.

Instead, I am going to build (again) a possition in EUR, regardless if price fall to 1.3310 or less. Anyway, I do not think the price will fall more than low from 26.MAR ~ 1.3260.

The second chart, is daily chart, I including it, because first chart is 1 hour chart. Unfortunately, from 1 day chart, we can not see anything interestnig that may help us for next week speculations.

Anyway, there is seems to be support line going up, but I believe we need to wait and see how things will be developed next week, and if EUR "stays" above 1.33, then we will include that "line" in some of next analysis.


Previous chart was not 100% correct, but trend lines were almost correct.

We closed all positions after huge bounce to 1.3398 (we closed with stop on 1.3380).

So happy weekend :)
AHA!!! here is the trend, at least until is broken...
Some comments about masterthemarkets / not-looking-good article,

On SPX, this is not a triangle.is down trend and objective is 1350.


Current EUR / USD situation is little bit unknown, we believe EUR will go higher, but some analysators believe a (small) correction is due.

So lets first see 1 hour chart with Fibonachi levels.

61.8% level is broken. We believe whatever happen, the EUR will raise at least to about 1.3370

The 4 hours chart shows interesting pattern - a triangle (again...:)

Maybe I see triangles all the time?!?! :-)

However this time, I believe this time, this triangle, is better to be used only for calculating where EUR will go, and not nececery for speculating a bounce to 1.34+ something. So looking at the triangle, we may estimate 1.3359 (defenetly less 1.3360)

I personaly will wait the EUR to raise to 1.3345 - 1.3350, and will put stop loss there, then as usual, I will move (manualy) the stop higher.

NMMM said - Same nice picture in Bulgarian Parliament...

Repost from Doug Gnazzo:

From Uncle Harry:

Of the 535 membersof the US Congress, 36 have been accused of spousal abuse, 7 have been arrested for fraud, 19 have been accused of writing bad checks, 117 have directly or indirectly bankrupted at least 2 businesses, 3 have done jail time for assault, 71 cannot get a credit card due to bad credit, 14 have been arrested on drug-related charges, 8 have been arrested for shoplifting, 21 currently are defendants in lawsuits, 84 have been arrested for drunk driving in the last year.

And 75% of Congressmen are lawyers. This is the same group that crank out hundreds of new laws each year designed to keep the rest of the population in line. Also, they recently voted themselves $15,000 a month pension for life, many after serving only 1 term in Congress.


China shifts to euros for Iran oil
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's state-run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, the biggestbuyer of Iranian crude worldwide, began paying for its oil in euros latelast year as Tehran moves to diversify its foreign reserves away from U.S.dollars. The Chinese firm, which buys more than a tenth of exports from theworld's fourth-largest crude producer, has changed the payment currency forthe bulk of its roughly 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) contract,Beijing-based sources said. "Most of China's purchases have shifted to euro.It's not difficult so long as our banks can handle that," said a Chinesestate oil trader
thanks Laura :)
I wrote an article for Fractional Reserve Banking, but is in Bulgarian, if you can read it, check here:


hi hi hi
Oh my god, houses are not in that good condition as people thought :o)

Today rates EUR/USD:
  • HI - 1.3346
  • LO - 1.3255


hi hi hi, who thought US Housing data will affect the market like this.

We have closed possitions with loss of only 34.50 USD, and 5K long EUR position.


EUR/USD summary
This time, we are on wrong side of the market, and once again, we trade against the market. This is because, once again, we underestimated the technical analysis, and we decided to buy relatively large USD position (shorting the EUR).

Now, let see the daily EUR/USD chart. Triangle is totaly broken now, the chart suggest that EUR will eighter go up,


will fall, at least to 1.33 or more downsize to "upper" old triangle resistance line (now support) - about 1.3260. 1.3340 is different possible level.

we can say rally is over, and to expect 1.27-1.30 in week or two. However we do not believe in this at all.

We hate to say, but generaly we can not predict anything using this chart :-)

Now, lets look 1 hour chart. Trend is up. we hope the EUR to fall to down support line/level. This will be great because we will be able to sell our USD, and to load with some EURos. Downsize is 1.3320. We hope some more downsize, but this is what tech tell us.

Now let see the 30 min chart. I post it because to see different Fibonachi levels we currently have:


Intel have situation like IBM, we need prices to drop to $17.50 and we can buy on bottom triangle line. Unlike IBM, with Intel we can not be sure that the triangle will be broken from the upside, but soon or later I will look and post bigger chart back to .COM baloon in year 2000.
EUR / USD - next corrective leg down? We will see tomorrow.


EUR / USD with some trendlines. The triangle was broken last week. Currently I expect some decline to the old upper trend line, at least for test it.

(I feel the line will fail and the EUR will return to the triangle, but I have no technical or fundamental reason for it)


Today Switzerland central bank increased interest rate to 2.25% (from 2.00%)

Today Norvegian central bank increased interest rate to 4.00% (from 3.75%)

Switzerland rate is important, because lot of carry trade is made using CHF. We will see how stocks will perform later today.

Note that Japan and EU central banks increased interest rates too couple of days ago.


Japanese Yen technicals.
If you check EUR/JPY or USD/JPY, you will find a mess there. However Jen Index shows much clear picture on what is going on.
For homework, you may see USD index:Yen index, the trend is shown there too.
Today, we closed all EUR/USD positions.

We covered all loses and interest charged and did profit of about 8% (or 20%, depends how you you calculate it).

From our triangle we did probably 60% profit till now!!!
Finaly Americans understood where the future is...

'Big Oil' must go nuclear, says US bank

Shell and BP will have to go nuclear if they want to remain 'supermajor'leaders of the global energy industry. That is the startling finding of amajor report into the energy industry in the age of climate change byJPMorgan. The US investment bank envisages that 'Big Oil' will play asignificant role in the future redevelopment of nuclear power. 'If thesupermajors of 2007 want to be supermajors in 30 years' time they have to beseriously thinking about the crossover from hydrocarbons to hydrogen,' hesaid.

Full article:


Recommended reading:
Unwinding the Yen carry Trade by Adam Oliensis.
The small triangle on 4 hours chart is broken now.
But I never said this triangle will hold.
YENN carry traders must be happy.
YENN looks like go back to the channel where Japanese government wants
(us not yet there, but soon will be)


EUR / USD - daily chart

more or less the situation is same as week ago. EUR must bounce now, and must go to upprer (tick) line @ ~ 1.3240. It may also break the line, but we will see, may be is too early for this.

Now lets see 4 hours chart, where we have smaller triangle. We are at the bottom, which was hit in friday. The bottom was upper low, from the low from 05.mar.2007.

Note that bottom triangle line is drawn according closing price (and not as I usualy do on low). So the bottom could be lower than the bottom line.


EUR / USD, 4 hour chart observations.

We have DIFFERENT triangle there, also 2 support levels, first (upper) is current level and will be not in play soon (e.g. broken or bounce).
The triangle is near completed, we will see what will happen soon.


IBM watch.

Ok... IBM fall to 90's. Now must fall to 74.
Could it be at same time as Dow crash?

See also: http://nmmmnu.blogspot.com/2007/02/note-on-ibm.html
EUR bounced!!!

4 hours chart looking good.

Daily chart is as following:

The resistance is broken now, is not something I did not expected. Now trend will go directly to some of the levels I am showing - ~1.2335, ~1.3280 or even ~1.3360.

Because I always prefere to see what other say, I must note that from Delta Stock, who usualy do very good analysis, projecting 1.3210 - 1.3240.


EUR / USD update
EUR went to the middle support line and bounce from there.

Because EUR pass through the upper triangle line like hot knife through margarine, I believe the triangle is no longer at play. From here I expect EUR to raly at least to 1.3220 - 1.3240. I know, this is not a serious reason at all, but the cup and handle formation is finished. Price must bounce now.

Fundamentaly, at the moment, the EURo is not the strongest than USD. Check EUR index / USD index ratio - it shows that EUR was stronger last couple of days (but not forget, that the chart is from yesterday)


EUR/USD weekly update - situation unchanged.

Daily chart - I believe it will go up to at least to 1.3220 - e.g. upper boundary line, because I expect the trend to continue in same direction for a day or two. See the daily charts I posted before.

4 hours chart - show absolutely the same as 2 days ago when I posted it. Is bullish.

1 hour chart - show nothing.


On 4 hours chart of EUR/USD, we can see confirmation that EUR must go higher. Series of highter lows and highs, also uptrend.
Could Bernenke speach in 5 min made EUR to go high? :)
We will see.


Looking at the EUR/USD after the Chinese damage, we can see, that eighter the mentioned (blue) line is broken, or is moved high.
  • If is moved high (e.g. blue line is now on place of red line), the prognosis are that EUR will go down, at least until the middle (green) line. I do not think it will go future down, but will bounce from middle line, because of fundamental reasons.
  • If triangle top is broken, then, the triangle top now should be support. This is what we saw 2 days ago. Even that, the support must be tested several times now, at least for next 2-3 days.
So conclusion is use the drop to buy EURos. ;-)

When I visited safehaven.com today,
Oh man...
Everyone turned bearish...